Is the Recent Rise in Type 2 Diabetes Incidence From 1984 to 2007 Explained by the Trend in Increasing BMI?: Evidence from a prospective study of British men

OBJECTIVE - To estimate the extent to which increasing BMI may explain the rise in type 2 diabetes incidence in British men from 1984 to 2007. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - A representative cohort ratio of 6,460 British men was followed-up for type 2 diabetes incidence between 1984 (aged 45-65 years) and 2007 (aged 67-89 years). BMI was ascertained at regular intervals before and during the follow-up. RESULTS - Between 1984-1992 and 1999-2007, the age-adjusted hazard of type 2 diabetes more than doubled (hazard ratio 2.33 [95% CI 1.75-3.10]). Mean BMI rose by 1.42 kg/m2 (95% CI 1.10-1.74) between 1984 and 1999; this could explain 26% (95% CI 17-38) of the type 2 diabetes increase. CONCLUSIONS - An appreciable portion of the rise in type 2 diabetes can be attributed to BMI changes. A substantial portion remains unexplained, possibly associated with other determinants such as physical activity. This merits further research. © 2010 by the American Diabetes Association

Lung Function and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes and Fatal and Nonfatal Major Coronary Heart Disease Events: Possible Associations With Inflammation

OBJECTIVE - We prospectively examined the relationship between lung function and risk of type-2 diabetes and fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) events and investigated the hypothesis that inflammation may underlie these associations. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - A prospective study of 4,434 men aged 40-59 years with no history of cardiovascular disease (CHD or stroke) or diabetes drawn from general practices in 24 British towns and followed up for 20 years. RESULTS - There were 680 major CHD events (276 fatal, 404 nonfatal) and 256 incident type 2 diabetes during the 20 years follow-up. Forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEY1) but not FEV1-to-FVC ratio were significantly and inversely associated with incident type 2 diabetes and fatal CHD events (not nonfatal events) after adjustment for age, potential confounders, and metabolic risk factors. The adjusted relative risk (RR) for type 2 diabetes (Quartile 1 vs. Quartile 4) were 1.59 (1.07-2.56) and 1.74 (1.16-2.61) for FVC and FEV1, respectively (P = 0.03 and P = 0.04 for trend). The corresponding RR for fatal CHD were 1.48 (1.00-2.21) and 1.81 (1.19-2.76) (P = 0.002 and P = 0.0003 for trend). Lung function was significantly and inversely associated with C-reactive protein and interleukin-6; the inverse associations with type 2 diabetes for FVC and FEV1 were attenuated after further adjustment for these factors (P = 0.14 and P = 0.11 for trend) but remained significant for fatal CHD (P = 0.03 and P = 0.01, respectively). CONCLUSIONS - Restrictive rather than obstructive impairment of lung function is associated with incident type 2 diabetes (and fatal CHD) with both associations partially explained by traditional and metabolic risk factors and inflammation

Socioeconomic inequalities in coronary heart disease risk in older age: contribution of established and novel coronary risk factors

Background:Evidence on socioeconomic inequalities in coronary heart disease (CHD) and their pathways in the elderly is limited. Little is also known about the contributions that novel coronary risk factors (particularly inflammatory/hemostatic markers) make to socioeconomic inequalities in CHD. Objectives:To examine the extent of socioeconomic inequalities in CHD in older age, and the contributions (relative and absolute) of established and novel coronary risk factors. Methods:A population-based cohort of 3761 British men aged 60–79 years was followed up for 6.5 years for CHD mortality and incidence (fatal and non-fatal). Social class was based on longest-held occupation recorded at 40–59 years. Results:There was a graded relationship between social class and CHD incidence. The hazard ratio for CHD incidence comparing social class V (unskilled workers) with social class I (professionals) was 2.70 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.37–5.35; P-value for trend = 0.008]. This was reduced to 2.14 (95% CI 1.06–4.33; P-value for trend = 0.11) after adjustment for behavioral factors (cigarette smoking, physical activity, body mass index, and alcohol consumption), which explained 38% of the relative risk gradient (41% of absolute risk). Additional adjustment for inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and von Willebrand factor) explained 55% of the relative risk gradient (59% of absolute risk). Blood pressure and lipids made little difference to these estimates; results were similar for CHD mortality. Conclusions:Socioeconomic inequalities in CHD persist in the elderly and are at least partly explained by behavioral risk factors; novel (inflammatory) coronary risk markers made some further contribution. Reducing inequalities in behavioral factors (especially cigarette smoking) could reduce these social inequalities by at least one-third

Cotinine-assessed second-hand smoke exposure and risk of cardiovascular disease in older adults

Objectives: To examine whether second-hand smoke (SHS) exposure measured by serum cotinine is associated with increased coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke risk among contemporary older British adults. Design: Prospective population-based study with self-reported medical history and health behaviours. Fasting blood samples were analysed for serum cotinine and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk markers. Setting: Primary care centres in 25 British towns in 1998–2001. Patients: 8512 60–79-year-old men and women selected from primary care registers. Main outcome measures: Fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI; n=445) and stroke (n=386) during median 7.8-year follow-up. Main exposure: Observational study of serum cotinine assayed from fasting blood sample using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry method, and self-reported smoking history. Results: Among 5374 non-smokers without pre-existing CVD, geometric mean cotinine was 0.15 ng/ml (IQR 0.05–0.30). Compared with non-smokers with cotinine ≤0.05 ng/ml, higher cotinine levels (0.06–0.19, 0.2–0.7 and 0.71–15.0 ng/ml) showed little association with MI; adjusted HRs were 0.92 (95% CI 0.63 to 1.35), 1.07 (0.73 to 1.55) and 1.09 (0.69 to 1.72), p(trend)=0.69. Equivalent HRs for stroke were 0.82 (0.55 to 1.23), 0.74 (0.48 to 1.13) and 0.69 (0.41 to 1.17), p(trend)=0.065. The adjustment for sociodemographic, behavioural and CVD risk factors had little effect on the results. The HR of MI for smokers (1–9 cigarettes/day) compared with non-smokers with cotinine ≤0.05 ng/ml was 2.14 (1.39 to 3.52) and 1.03 (0.52 to 2.04) for stroke. Conclusions: In contemporary older men and women, SHS exposure (predominantly at low levels) was not related to CHD or stroke risks, but we cannot rule out the possibility of modest effects at higher exposure levels

Adiposity in early, middle and later adult life and cardiometabolic risk markers in later life; findings from the British regional heart study.

OBJECTIVES: This research investigates the associations between body mass index (BMI) at 21, 40-59, 60-79 years of age on cardiometabolic risk markers at 60-79 years. METHODS: A prospective study of 3464 British men with BMI measured at 40-59 and 60-79 years, when cardiometabolic risk was assessed. BMI at 21 years was ascertained from military records, or recalled from middle-age (adjusted for reporting bias); associations between BMI at different ages and later cardiometabolic risk markers were examined using linear regression. Sensitive period, accumulation and mobility life course models were devised for high BMI (defined as BMI≥75th centile) and compared with a saturated BMI trajectory model. RESULTS: At ages 21, 40-59 and 60-79 years, prevalences of overweight (BMI≥25 kg/m2) were 12%, 53%, 70%, and obesity (≥30 kg/m2) 1.6%, 6.6%, and 17.6%, respectively. BMI at 21 years was positively associated with serum insulin, blood glucose, and HbA1c at 60-79 years, with increases of 1.5% (95%CI 0.8,2.3%), 0.4% (0.1,0.6%), 0.3% (0.1,0.4%) per 1 kg/m2, respectively, but showed no associations with blood pressure or blood cholesterol. However, these associations were modest compared to those between BMI at 60-79 years and serum insulin, blood glucose and HbA1c at 60-79 years, with increases of 8.6% (8.0,9.2%), 0.7% (0.5,0.9%), and 0.5% (0.4,0.7%) per 1 kg/m2, respectively. BMI at 60-79 years was also associated with total cholesterol and blood pressure. Associations for BMI at 40-59 years were mainly consistent with those of BMI at 60-79 years. None of the life course models fitted the data as well as the saturated model for serum insulin. A sensitive period at 50 years for glucose and HbA1c and sensitive period at 70 years for blood pressure were identified. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of men who were thin compared to more contemporary cohorts, BMI in later life was the dominant influence on cardiovascular and diabetes risk. BMI in early adult life may have a small long-term effect on diabetes risk

Changes in environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure over a 20-year period: cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses

AIMS:  To examine long‐term changes in environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure in British men between 1978 and 2000, using serum cotinine. DESIGN:  Prospective cohort: British Regional Heart Study. SETTING:  General practices in 24 towns in England, Wales and Scotland. PARTICIPANTS:  Non‐smoking men: 2125 studied at baseline [questionnaire (Q1): 1978–80, aged 40–59 years], 3046 studied 20 years later (Q20: 1998–2000, aged 60–79 years) and 1208 studied at both times. Non‐smokers were men reporting no current smoking with cotinine < 15 ng/ml at Q1 and/or Q20. MEASUREMENTS: Serum cotinine to assess ETS exposure. FINDINGS:  In cross‐sectional analysis, geometric mean cotinine level declined from 1.36 ng/ml [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.31, 1.42] at Q1 to 0.19 ng/ml (95% CI: 0.18, 0.19) at Q20. The prevalence of cotinine levels ≤ 0.7 ng/ml [associated with low coronary heart disease (CHD) risk] rose from 27.1% at Q1 to 83.3% at Q20. Manual social class and northern region of residence were associated with higher mean cotinine levels both at Q1 and Q20; older age was associated with lower cotinine level at Q20 only. Among 1208 persistent non‐smokers, cotinine fell by 1.47 ng/ml (95% CI: 1.37, 1.57), 86% decline. Absolute falls in cotinine were greater in manual occupational groups, in the Midlands and Scotland compared to southern England, although percentage decline was very similar across groups. CONCLUSIONS:  A marked decline in ETS exposure occurred in Britain between 1978 and 2000, which is likely to have reduced ETS‐related disease risks appreciably before the introduction of legislation banning smoking in public places

Assessing risk prediction models using individual participant data from multiple studies

Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied).We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell’s concordance index, and Royston’s discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using aweighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from casecontrol studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous.Lisa Pennells, Stephen Kaptoge, Ian R. White, Simon G. Thompson, Angela M. Wood and the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (Debbie A. Lawlor

Assessing prediction of diabetes in older adults using different adiposity measures: a 7 year prospective study in 6,923 older men and women

The aim of this study was to examine whether waist circumference (WC) or WHR improve diabetes prediction beyond body mass index in older men and women, and to define optimal cut-off points. In this prospective study, non-diabetic men (n = 3,519) and women (n = 3,404) aged 60-79 years were followed up for 7 years. There were 169 and 128 incident cases of type 2 diabetes in men and women, respectively. BMI, WC and WHR all showed strong associations with incident type 2 diabetes independent of potential confounders. In men, the adjusted relative risks (top vs lowest quartile) were 4.71 (95% CI 2.45-9.03) for BMI, 3.53 (95% CI 1.92-6.48) for WC and 2.76 (95% CI 1.58-4.82) for WHR. For women, the corresponding relative risks were 4.10 (95% CI 2.16-7.79), 12.18 (95% CI 4.83-30.74) and 5.61 (95% CI 2.84-11.09) for BMI, WC and WHR, respectively. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis revealed similar associations for BMI and WC in predicting diabetes in men (AUC = 0.726 and 0.713, respectively); WHR was the weakest predictor (AUC = 0.656). In women, WC was a significantly stronger predictor (AUC = 0.780) than either BMI (AUC = 0.733) or WHR (AUC = 0.728; p &lt; 0.01 for both). Inclusion of both WC and BMI did not improve prediction beyond BMI alone in men or WC alone in women. Optimal sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of type 2 diabetes was observed at a WC of 100 cm in men and 92 cm in women. In older men, BMI and WC yielded similar prediction of risk of type 2 diabetes, whereas WC was clearly a superior predictor in older wome