6 research outputs found
What is wrong with postâfire soil erosion modelling? A metaâanalysis on current approaches, research gaps, and future directions
In the near future, a higher occurrence of wildfires is expected due to climate change, carrying social, environmental, and economic implications. Such impacts are often associated with an increase of postâfire hydrological and erosive responses, which are difficult to predict. Soil erosion models have been proven to be a valuable tool in the decisionâmaking process, from emergency response to longâterm planning, however, they were not designed for postâfire conditions, so they need to be adapted to include fireâinduced changes.
In the recent years, there has been an increasing number of studies testing different models and adaptations for the prediction of postâfire soil erosion. However, many of these adaptations are being applied without field validation or model performance assessment. Therefore, this study aims to describe the scientific advances in the last twenty years in postâfire soil erosion modelling research and evaluate model adaptations to burned areas that aim to include: i) fireâinduced changes in soil and ground cover, ii) fireâinduced changes in infiltration, iii) burn severity, and iv) mitigation measures in their predictions. This study also discusses the strengths and weaknesses of those approaches, suggests potential improvements, and identifies directions for future research.
Results show that studies are not homogeneously distributed worldwide, neither according to the model type used, nor by regions most affected by wildfires. During calibration, 73% of the cases involved model adaptation to burned conditions, and only 21% attempted to accommodate new processes. Burn severity was addressed in 75% of the cases, whilst mitigation measures were simulated in 27%. Additionally, only a minor percentage of model predictions were validated with independent field data (17%) or assessed for uncertainties (13%). Therefore, further efforts are required on the adaptation of erosion models to burned conditions to be widely used for postâfire management decision.publishe