Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment

Most empirical analyses of monetary policy have been confined to frameworks in which the Federal Reserve is implicitly assumed to exploit only a limited amount of information, despite the fact that the Fed actively monitors literally thousands of economic time series. This article explores the feasibility of incorporating richer information sets into the analysis, both positive and normative, of Fed policymaking. We employ a factor-model approach, developed by Stock and Watson (1999a,b), that permits the systematic information in large data sets to be summarized by relatively few estimated factors. With this framework, we reconfirm Stock and Watson's result that the use of large data sets can improve forecast accuracy, and we show that this result does not seem to depend on the use of finally revised (as opposed to 'real-time') data. We estimate policy reaction functions for the Fed that take into account its data-rich environment and provide a test of the hypothesis that Fed actions are explained solely by its forecasts of inflation and real activity. Finally, we explore the possibility of developing an 'expert system' that could aggregate diverse information and provide benchmark policy settings.

Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach

Structural vector autoregressions (VARs) are widely used to trace out the effect of monetary policy innovations on the economy. However, the sparse information sets typically used in these empirical models lead to at least two potential problems with the results. First, to the extent that central banks and the private sector have information not reflected in the VAR, the measurement of policy innovations is likely to be contaminated. A second problem is that impulse responses can be observed only for the included variables, which generally constitute only a small subset of the variables that the researcher and policymaker care about. In this paper we investigate one potential solution to this limited information problem, which combines the standard structural VAR analysis with recent developments in factor analysis for large data sets. We find that the information that our factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) methodology exploits is indeed important to properly identify the monetary transmission mechanism. Overall, our results provide a comprehensive and coherent picture of the effect of monetary policy on the economy.

Time-trends and treatment gaps in the antithrombotic management of patients with atrial fibrillation after percutaneous coronary intervention: Insights from the CHUM AF-STENT Registry.

BACKGROUND: The management of atrial fibrillation and flutter (AF) patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has undergone a rapid recent evolution. In 2016, the Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) published expert recommendations to help guide clinicians in balancing bleeding and thrombotic risks in these patients. HYPOTHESIS: Antithrombotic regimen prescriptions for AF patients undergoing PCI evolved after the publication of the 2016 CCS AF guidelines. METHODS: A prospective cohort of AF patients undergoing PCI with placement of a coronary stent from a single tertiary academic center was analyzed for the recommended antithrombotic regimen at discharge. Prescribing behavior was compared between three time periods (Cohort A [2010-2011]; Cohort B [2014-2015]; Cohort C [2017]) using the χ2 test. In addition, antithrombotic management in Cohorts B and C were compared to guideline-recommended therapy. RESULTS: A total of 459 patients with AF undergoing PCI were identified. Clinical and procedural characteristics were similar between cohorts, with the exception of an increase in drug-eluting stent (DES) use over time (P < .01). Overall, the rate of oral anticoagulation (OAC) increased over time (P < .01), associated with an increase in nonvitamin K OAC prescription (P < .01) and a concomitant decrease in vitamin K antagonist prescription (P < .01). Despite this, the overall rate of anticoagulation remains below what would be predicted with perfect guideline compliance (75% vs 94%, P < .01). CONCLUSION: There has been a dramatic shift in clinical practice for AF patients requiring PCI, with increases in prescription of OAC even in the context of an increase in the use of DES. However, room for further practice optimization still exists

Capital et travail

La recension de l’ouvrageCapital et travail de Victor Levant préparée par Jean Boivin et publiée dans R.I. vol 33, no 2 a donné lieu à une réaction. Respectant le désir de l'auteur, nous publions dans son intégrité la lettre qu'il nous a adressée. Nous publions de plus les remarques des professeurs Laperrière et Noumoff ainsi que la réplique de Jean Boivin

The social and cultural meanings of infertility for men and women in Zambia: Legacy, family and divine intervention

Despite the high prevalence of infertility within the sub-Saharan sterility belt, infertility in Zambia is understudied, particularly from a social perspective. Furthermore, few studies in sub-Saharan Africa include the infertility experiences of men. This article seeks to fill this gap by qualitatively describing the ways in which infertility in Zambia is socially and culturally loaded for both men and women. Demonstrating fertility is necessary to be considered a full adult, a real man or woman, and to leave a legacy after death. People in Zambia, including medical professionals, currently lack the necessary information and access to (or ability to provide) care to effectively resolve fertility issues. Infertile people manage their experience through a variety of social, emotional, spiritual, and medical strategies. However, no solution is considered adequate unless the intervention results in childbirth. In this way, infertility is about producing babies and the social meaning of that process, rather than the raising of children

How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?

We discuss the evolution in macroeconomic thought on the monetary policy transmission mechanism and present related empirical evidence. The core channels of policy transmission – the neoclassical links between short-term policy interest rates, other asset prices such as long-term interest rates, equity prices, and the exchange rate, and the consequent effects on household and business demand – have remained steady from early policy-oriented models (like the Penn-MIT-SSRC MPS model) to modern dynamic-stochastic-general-equilibrium (DSGE) models. In contrast, non-neoclassical channels, such as credit-based channels, have remained outside the core models. In conjunction with this evolution in theory and modeling, there have been notable changes in policy behavior (with policy more focused on price stability) and in the reduced form correlations of policy interest rates with activity in the United States. Regulatory effects on credit provision have also changed significantly. As a result, we review the empirical evidence on the changes in the effect of monetary policy actions on real activity and inflation and present new evidence, using both a relatively unrestricted factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) and a DSGE model. Both approaches yield similar results: Monetary policy innovations have a more muted effect on real activity and inflation in recent decades as compared to the effects before 1980. Our analysis suggests that these shifts are accounted for by changes in policy behavior and the effect of these changes on expectations, leaving little role for changes in underlying private-sector behavior (outside shifts related to monetary policy changes).

Natural Health Products, Modulation of Immune Function and Prevention of Chronic Diseases

The immune system is increasingly found to be involved in the development of several chronic illnesses, for which allopathic medicine has provided limited tools for treatment and especially prevention. In that context, it appears worthwhile to target the immune system in order to modulate the risk of certain chronic illnesses. Meanwhile, natural health products (NHPs) are generating renewed interest, particularly in the prevention and treatment of several chronic diseases. Over 20 scientists from fields related to immune function and NHPs were thus convened to establish the state of knowledge on these subjects and to explore future research directions. This review summarizes the result of discussions held during the symposium. It thus seeks to be thought provoking rather than to comprehensively cover such broad areas of research. Notably, a brief overview of the immune system is presented, including potentially useful targets and strategies to keep it in an equilibrated state, in order to prevent certain disorders. The pertinence and limitations of targeting the immune system to prevent chronic diseases is also discussed. The paper then discusses the usefulness and limitations of current experimental tools available to study the immune modulating effects of NHPs. Finally, a concise review of some of the most studied NHPs showing promising immunomodulatory activity is given, and avenues for future research are described

Anxiolytic Effect of Melatonin in Premenstrual Dysphoric Disorder

Increases in anxiety levels during the late-luteal phase of the menstrual cycle form important diagnostic criteria of premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD) (1). Evidence exists to support the hypothesis that tolerance to endogenous levels of melatonin might occur during the luteal phase in PMDD (2, 3). It was hypothesized that slow release (SR) melatonin administration during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle of participants with PMDD could significantly lower anxiety levels measured by self-report