Classic and spatial shift-share analysis of state-level employment change in Brazil

This paper combines classic and spatial shift-share decompositions of 1981 to 2006 employment change across the 27 states of Brazil. The classic shift-share method shows higher employment growth rates for underdeveloped regions that are due to an advantageous industry-mix and also due to additional job creation, commonly referred to as the competitive effect. Alternative decompositions proposed in the literature do not change this broad conclusion. Further examination employing exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) shows spatial correlation of both the industry-mix and the competitive effects. Considering that until the 1960s economic activities were more concentrated in southern regions of Brazil than they are nowadays, these results support beta convergence theories but also find evidence of agglomeration effects. Additionally, a very simple spatial decomposition is proposed that accounts for the spatially-weighted growth of surrounding states. Favourable growth in northern and centre-western states is basically associated with those states’ strengths in potential spatial spillover effect and in spatial competitive effect

Productivity, International Trade and Reference Area Interactions in Shift-Share Analysis: Some Operational Notes

These notes discuss and illustrate two new extensions of shift-share analysis: the productivity and output model and the international trade model. We also review a general limitation of these and other shift-share-type models with respect to the interaction between reference area and the region. A possible solution to this limitation is presented. The new extensions provide better insights about the regional economy but that benefit occurs at a cost. The cost is careful consideration and compensation where relatively large regions or sectors are central to the shift-share assessment. The extensions are important in addressing earlier problems with the shift-share approach. Our solution to shift-share limitation on reference area interaction is vital if the method is to be extended to these multiple environments. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd..

Political orientations, ideological selfcategorizations, party preferences, and moral foundations of young Turkish voters

Yılmaz, Onurcan (Dogus Author) -- Bahçekapılı, Hasan Galip (Dogus Author)Political ideology is often characterized along a liberal–conservative continuum in the United States and the left–right continuum in Europe. However, no study has examined what this characterization means to young Turkish voters or whether it predicts their approach to morality. In Study 1, we investigated in two separate samples the relation between young Turkish participants’ responses to the one-item left-to-right political orientation question and their self-reported political ideologies (conservative, socialist, etc.). In Study 2, we investigated the relation of moral dimensions as defined by Moral Foundations Theory to political party affiliation and political ideology. Results revealed that CHP, MHP, and AKP voters display a typical right-wing profile distinct from HDP voters. Findings regarding political ideology measures were consistent with party affiliations. Taken together, the findings reveal the distinctive nature of young Turkish people’s political orientations while supporting the predictive power of the one-item political orientation question

Does Having the Right Visitor Mix Do the Job? Applying an Econometric Shift-Share Model to Regional Tourism Developments

This paper is the first to apply an econometric shift-share model to tourism. The approach allows us to isolate the growth contributions of changes in regional touristic attractiveness from those induced by the structure of visitors, but does not share the caveats of the conventional shift-share approach. Our application to regional tourism in Austria reveals important results: First, differences in long-run performance between regions are mostly related to idiosyncratic changes in the tourist appeal of individual regions rather than a result of more or less favorable structures of visitors. Second, none of several mega-events during the period observed seem to have left prolonged positive effects on the tourist performance of the host regions. And third, performance appears uncorrelated with tourism intensity of a region. Thus, from a policy and destination management perspective, tourism authorities and local suppliers should mainly focus on upgrading the permanent destination attractiveness rather than investing too much effort into landing megaevents or targeting the visitor mix towards promising source markets

Elasticities of road traffic and fuel consumption with respect to price and income: A review

This paper gives the main results of a literature review of new empirical studies, published since 1990, updating work on the effects of price and income on fuel consumption, traffic levels, and where available other indicators including fuel efficiency and car ownership. The results are broadly consistent with several earlier reviews, though not always with current practice. The work was carried out as one of two parallel 'blind' literature reviews, the other being summarized in a companion paper by Graham and Glaister: the results are broadly, though not in every respect, consistent. © 2004 Taylor and Francis Ltd