Sensitivity of the Eocene climate to CO₂ and orbital variability

The early Eocene, from about 56 Ma, with high atmospheric CO2 levels, offers an analogue for the response of the Earth’s climate system to anthropogenic fossil fuel burning. In this study, we present an ensemble of 50 Earth system model runs with an early Eocene palaeogeography and variation in the forcing values of atmospheric CO2 and the Earth’s orbital parameters. Relationships between simple summary metrics of model outputs and the forcing parameters are identified by linear modelling, providing estimates of the relative magnitudes of the effects of atmospheric CO2 and each of the orbital parameters on important climatic features, including tropical–polar temperature difference, ocean–land temperature contrast, Asian, African and South (S.) American monsoon rains, and climate sensitivity. Our results indicate that although CO2 exerts a dominant control on most of the climatic features examined in this study, the orbital parameters also strongly influence important components of the ocean–atmosphere system in a greenhouse Earth. In our ensemble, atmospheric CO2 spans the range 280–3000 ppm, and this variation accounts for over 90 % of the effects on mean air temperature, southern winter high-latitude ocean– land temperature contrast and northern winter tropical–polar temperature difference. However, the variation of precession accounts for over 80 % of the influence of the forcing parameters on the Asian and African monsoon rainfall, and obliquity variation accounts for over 65 % of the effects on winter ocean–land temperature contrast in high northern latitudes and northern summer tropical–polar temperature difference. Our results indicate a bimodal climate sensitivity, with values of 4.36 and 2.54 ◦C, dependent on low or high states of atmospheric CO2 concentration, respectively, with a threshold at approximately 1000 ppm in this model, and due to a saturated vegetation–albedo feedback. Our method gives a quantitative ranking of the influence of each of the forcing parameters on key climatic model outputs, with additional spatial information from singular value decomposition providing insights into likely physical mechanisms. The results demonstrate the importance of orbital variation as an agent of change in climates of the past, and we demonstrate that emulators derived from our modelling output can be used as rapid and efficient surrogates of the full complexity model to provide estimates of climate conditions from any set of forcing parameters

A model-based constraint on CO₂ fertilisation

We derive a constraint on the strength of CO2 fertilisation of the terrestrial biosphere through a “top-down” approach, calibrating Earth system model parameters constrained by the post-industrial increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration. We derive a probabilistic prediction for the globally averaged strength of CO2 fertilisation in nature, for the period 1850 to 2000 AD, implicitly net of other limiting factors such as nutrient availability. The approach yields an estimate that is independent of CO2 enrichment experiments. To achieve this, an essential requirement was the incorpo- ration of a land use change (LUC) scheme into the GENIE Earth system model. Using output from a 671-member ensemble of transient GENIE simulations, we build an emulator of the change in atmospheric CO2 concentration change since the preindustrial period. We use this emulator to sample the 28-dimensional input parameter space. A Bayesian calibration of the emulator output suggests that the increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) in response to a doubling of CO2 from preindustrial values is very likely (90 % confidence) to exceed 20 %, with a most likely value of 40–60 %. It is important to note that we do not represent all of the possible contributing mechanisms to the terrestrial sink. The missing processes are subsumed into our calibration of CO2 fertilisation, which therefore represents the combined effect of CO2 fertilisation and additional missing processes. If the missing processes are a net sink then our estimate represents an upper bound. We derive calibrated estimates of carbon fluxes that are consistent with existing estimates. The present-day land–atmosphere flux (1990–2000) is estimated at −0.7 GTC yr−1 (likely, 66 % confidence, in the range 0.4 to −1.7 GTC yr−1). The present-day ocean–atmosphere flux (1990–2000) is estimated to be −2.3 GTC yr−1 (likely in the range −1.8 to −2.7 GTC yr−1). We estimate cumulative net land emissions over the post-industrial period (land use change emissions net of the CO2 fertilisation and climate sinks) to be 66 GTC, likely to lie in the range 0 to 128 GTC

Qualitative Examination of African American Women's Perspectives about Depression

Gaining greater understanding about the various psychosocial, socio-cultural, and environmental factors that may influence experiences of depression among African American women (AAW) helps elucidate how this mental illness impacts the lives of this population. Sixty-three adult AAW comprised the study’s convenience sample.  Specifically, focus group cohorts inclusive of women from an academic institution, a primary healthcare clinic, and an urban community setting were conducted.  Results indicated six (6) dominant common themes as issues that may increase risk for depression among diverse AAW.  Similarities and differences about perspectives that contributed to depression were delineated among the three cohorts of AAW.  These results are important for mental/behavioral health researchers, practitioners, and public health professionals that are engaged in the design and implementation of culturally centered and gender-specific prevention and intervention strategies targeted to AAW at risk for depression. 

Controls on the spatial distribution of oceanic <i>δ</i>¹³C_DIC

We describe the design and evaluation of a large ensemble of coupled climate–carbon cycle simulations with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity GENIE. This ensemble has been designed for application to a range of carbon cycle questions, including the causes of late- Quaternary fluctuations in atmospheric CO2. Here we evaluate the ensemble by applying it to a transient experiment over the recent industrial era (1858 to 2008 AD). We employ singular vector decomposition and principal component emulation to investigate the spatial modes of ensemble variability of oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) δ13C, considering both the spun-up pre-industrial state and the transient change. These analyses allow us to separate the natural (preindustrial) and anthropogenic controls on the δ13CDIC distribution. We apply the same dimensionally reduced emulation techniques to consider the drivers of the spatial uncertainty in anthropogenic DIC. We show that the sources of uncertainty related to the uptake of anthropogenic δ13CDIC and DIC are quite distinct. Uncertainty in anthropogenic δ13C uptake is controlled by air–sea gas exchange, which explains 63% of modelled variance. This mode of variability is largely absent from the ensemble variability in CO2 uptake, which is rather driven by uncertainties in thermocline ventilation rates. Although the need to account for air–sea gas exchange is well known, these results suggest that, to leading order, uncertainties in the ocean uptake of anthropogenic 13C and CO2 are governed by very different processes. This illustrates the difficulties in reconstructing one from the other, and furthermore highlights the need for careful targeting of both δ13CDIC and DIC observations to better constrain the ocean sink of anthropogenic CO2

The effects on clinical trial activity of direct funding and taxation policy interventions made by government: A systematic review

Context Governments have attempted to increase clinical trial activity in their jurisdictions using a range of methods including targeted direct funding and industry tax rebates. The effectiveness of the different approaches employed is unclear. Objective To systematically review the effects of direct government financing interventions by allowing companies to reduce their tax payable on clinical trial activity. Data sources Pub Med, Scopus, Sage, ProQuest, Google Scholar and Google were searched up to the 11th of April 2022. In addition, the reference lists of all potentially eligible documents were hand searched to identify additional reports. Following feedback from co-authors, information on a small number of additional interventions were specifically sought out and included. Data extraction Summary information about potentially eligible reports were reviewed independently by two researchers, followed by extraction of data into a structured spreadsheet for eligible studies. The primary outcomes of interest were the number of clinical trials and the expenditure on clinical trials but data about other evaluations were also collected. Results There were 1694 potentially eligible reports that were reviewed. Full text assessments were done for 304, and 30 reports that provided data on 43 interventions were included- 29 that deployed targeted direct funding and 14 that provided tax rebates or exemptions. There were data describing effects on a primary outcome for 25/41 of the interventions. The most common types of interventions were direct funding to researchers via special granting mechanisms and tax offsets to companies and research organisations. All 25 of the studies for which data were available reported a positive impact on numbers and/or expenditure on clinical trials though the robustness of evaluations was limited for many. Estimates of the magnitude of effects of interventions were reported inconsistently, varied substantially, and could not be synthesised quantitatively, though targeted direct funding interventions appeared to be associated with more immediate impact on clinical trial activity. Conclusion There is a high likelihood that governments can increase clinical trial activity with either direct or indirect fiscal mechanisms. Direct funding may provide a more immediate and tangible return on investment than tax rebates

The Evolution of the Field and Cluster Morphology-Density Relation for Mass-Selected Samples of Galaxies

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and photometric/spectroscopic surveys in the GOODS-South field (the Chandra Deep Field-South, CDFS) are used to construct volume-limited, stellar mass-selected samples of galaxies at redshifts 0<z<1. The CDFS sample at 0.6<z<1.0 contains 207 galaxies complete down to M=4x10^10 Msol (for a ``diet'' Salpeter IMF), corresponding to a luminosity limit for red galaxies of M_B=-20.1. The SDSS sample at 0.020<z<0.045 contains 2003 galaxies down to the same mass limit, which corresponds to M_B=-19.3 for red galaxies. Morphologies are determined with an automated method, using the Sersic parameter n and a measure of the residual from the model fits, called ``bumpiness'', to distinguish different morphologies. These classifications are verified with visual classifications. In agreement with previous studies, 65-70% of the galaxies are located on the red sequence, both at z~0.03 and at z~0.8. Similarly, 65-70% of the galaxies have n>2.5. The fraction of E+S0 galaxies is 43+/-3%$ at z~0.03 and 48+/-7% at z~0.8, i.e., it has not changed significantly since z~0.8. When combined with recent results for cluster galaxies in the same redshift range, we find that the morphology-density relation for galaxies more massive than 0.5M* has remained constant since at least z~0.8. This implies that galaxies evolve in mass, morphology and density such that the morphology-density relation does not change. In particular, the decline of star formation activity and the accompanying increase in the stellar mass density of red galaxies since z~1 must happen without large changes in the early-type galaxy fraction in a given environment.Comment: 16 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables. Updated to match journal version. Will appear in ApJ (vol. 670, p. 206

The discontinuous Galerkin method for fractional degenerate convection-diffusion equations

We propose and study discontinuous Galerkin methods for strongly degenerate convection-diffusion equations perturbed by a fractional diffusion (L\'evy) operator. We prove various stability estimates along with convergence results toward properly defined (entropy) solutions of linear and nonlinear equations. Finally, the qualitative behavior of solutions of such equations are illustrated through numerical experiments