Track E Implementation Science, Health Systems and Economics

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138412/1/jia218443.pd

Macroeconomic Stress-Testing of Mortgage Default Rate Using a Vector Error Correction Model and Entropy Pooling

We propose a methodology to perform macroeconomic stress-testing on the probability of default of a given borrowers’ population (i.e., aggregate probability of default) through simulation from a vector error correction model and entropy pooling (Meucci, 2008).Nous proposons une méthodologie pour effectuer des tests de stress macroéconomique en lien avec la probabilité de défaut d’une population d’emprunteurs (i.e. sur une probabilité de défaut agrégée) par l’entremise d’une simulation de modèle vectoriel à correction d’erreurs et de concentration d’entropie

Imaginer les futurs ensemble: - scénarios pour la gestion patrimoniale des infrastructures liées à l'eau face au changement global

International audienceDrinking water supply networks are essential for the economic activity of territories, for their attractiveness and for the well-being of inhabitants. Maintaining a high performance of service over time requires taking into consideration many variables such as ageing infrastructures, demographic changes, socioeconomic dynamics and climate change consequences. In this context, Water Infrastructures Asset Management (WIAM) faces several challenges. This article presents the results of an original forecasting approach based on an interdisciplinary research carried out by a group of engineering and social scientists, and stakeholders. The main objective was to design various possible pathways for the future of a French territory and craft scenarios for WIAM strategies to 2070. The article describes first the main issues WIAM is facing in a global change context. Second we present the original forecasting method used. Third we expose the results and particularly the four prospective scenarios that describe the possible pathways of WIAM by 2070. Fourth scenarios are applied to four case studies in order to build prospective infrastructure needs scenarios. And finally we propose their implications for WIAM strategies and discuss the benefits and limits of such an approach to improve water management

Characteristics of HIV-2 and HIV-1/HIV-2 Dually Seropositive Adults in West Africa Presenting for Care and Antiretroviral Therapy: The IeDEA-West Africa HIV-2 Cohort Study.

HIV-2 is endemic in West Africa. There is a lack of evidence-based guidelines on the diagnosis, management and antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-2 or HIV-1/HIV-2 dual infections. Because of these issues, we designed a West African collaborative cohort for HIV-2 infection within the framework of the International epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA).We collected data on all HIV-2 and HIV-1/HIV-2 dually seropositive patients (both ARV-naive and starting ART) and followed-up in clinical centres in the IeDEA-WA network including a total of 13 clinics in five countries: Benin, Burkina-Faso Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal, in the West Africa region.Data was merged for 1,754 patients (56% female), including 1,021 HIV-2 infected patients (551 on ART) and 733 dually seropositive for both HIV-1 and HIV 2 (463 on ART). At ART initiation, the median age of HIV-2 patients was 45.3 years, IQR: (38.3-51.7) and 42.4 years, IQR (37.0-47.3) for dually seropositive patients (p = 0.048). Overall, 16.7% of HIV-2 patients on ART had an advanced clinical stage (WHO IV or CDC-C). The median CD4 count at the ART initiation is 166 cells/mm(3), IQR (83-247) among HIV-2 infected patients and 146 cells/mm(3), IQR (55-249) among dually seropositive patients. Overall, in ART-treated patients, the CD4 count increased 126 cells/mm(3) after 24 months on ART for HIV-2 patients and 169 cells/mm(3) for dually seropositive patients. Of 551 HIV-2 patients on ART, 5.8% died and 10.2% were lost to follow-up during the median time on ART of 2.4 years, IQR (0.7-4.3).This large multi-country study of HIV-2 and HIV-1/HIV-2 dual infection in West Africa suggests that routine clinical care is less than optimal and that management and treatment of HIV-2 could be further informed by ongoing studies and randomized clinical trials in this population