Verificación de las predicciones estacionales

Presentación realizada para el Taller de trabajo sobre "Uso de predicciones climáticas estacionales para la mejora de la gestión del agua" celebrado en AEMET el día 18 de marzo de 2014. Este taller de trabajo entre científicos del clima y gestores de los recursos hídricos ha sido organizado en el marco del proyecto europeo EUPORIAS y de la implementación en España del Marco Mundial para los Servicios Climáticos

Verificación de las predicciones climáticas estacionales

Presentación realizada para el Taller de trabajo sobre "Uso de predicciones climáticas estacionales para la mejora de la gestión de los embalses" celebrado en la sede central de AEMET el día 6 de octubre de 2015. Este Taller de trabajo ha sido organizado conjuntamente por la Dirección General del Agua, el proyecto del 7º Programa Marco de la Unión Europea EUPORIAS, y AEMET

Módulo 3: evaluación del prototipo

Presentación realizada en: Seminario DGA-AEMET-CEDEX: Avances conseguidos en el proyecto MEDSCOPE en el ámbito de las predicciones estacionales probabilísticas en apoyo a la gestión de embalses, celebrado de forma online el 30 de septiembre de 2020

AEMET: tasks to support planning and decision making

Presentación realizada en: Decision Support and Risk Assessment for Asset Planning 2015 workshop, celebrado del 23 al 25 de septiembre de 2015 en La Spezia (Italia)

Verification of C3S Seasonal Forecasting Systems over Europe and the Mediterranean region

Póster presentado en: EMS Annual Meeting: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology celebrado del 9 al 13 de septiembre de 2017 en Copenhague, Dinamarca.This work is partly funded by the MEDSCOPE project. MEDSCOPE is co-funded by the European Commission as part of ERA4CS, an ERANET initiated by JPI Climate, grant agreement no. 690462

Calibration and combination of seasonal forecasts over Southern Europe [Póster]

Póster elaborado para la European Geosciences Union General Assembly celebrada los días 17-22 de abril de 2016 en VienaVerification of temperature and precipitation seasonal forecasts from different operational systems over selected regions in Southern Europe is computed based on the available re-forecasts. A comprehensive set of scores and procedures targeted at verification of probabilistic forecasts provides an overview of the skill of current operational models for different seasons, lead times, variables and sub-regions in Southern Europe. The impact of calibration and combination of seasonal re-forecasts based on different setups of a Bayesian scheme has also been studied. The potential of such scheme and their different setups to improve seasonal forecast quality is also discussed

Calibration and combination of seasonal forecast over Southern Europe

Verification of temperature and precipitation seasonal forecasts from four different operational systems - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system 4, Météo-France system 3, UK Met Office system 3 and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) system version 2 - for different seasons, lead times, variables and sub-regions over Southern Europe is computed based on available hindcasts. The impact of calibration and combination of seasonal hindcasts using different setups of a Bayesian scheme has also been discussed. Although results show relatively low skill as a consequence of the low predictability at seasonal scale over mid-latitudes, there is a noticeable consistency among models. As expected over Southern Europe, scores for temperature are better than for precipitation. We also show and discuss windows of opportunity associated to certain seasons/variables/models/regions

Seasonal prediction skill of 4 models over Western Europe and Eastern Africa

Póster presentado en: EUPORIAS 4rd General Assembly celebrado del 29 de septiembre al 1 de octubre de 2015 en Winterthur (Suiza)

Winter seasonal reservoir inflow forecasting in Spain

Póster presentado en: XXXIV Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XVII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Teruel, del 29 de febrero al 2 de marzo de 2016