Póster presentado en: EUPORIAS 4rd General Assembly celebrado del 29 de septiembre al 1 de octubre de 2015 en Winterthur (Suiza)

Rodríguez Camino, Ernesto

Sánchez García, Eroteida

Voces Aboy, José

English

Agencia Estatal de Meteorología

References• WMO. New Attachment II-8 to the Manual on the GDPFS (WMO-no.485), Volume I: Standardised Verification System for Long-Range Forecasts.CBS-DPFS/ET-LRF/Final Report, p59-84• Doblas-Reyes, F. (2010). Seasonal prediction over Europe. Proceedings of the ECMWF Seminar on Predictability in the European and Atlantic regions, 6 to 9 September 2010.• Kirtman, B. y A. Pirani. (2008). WCRP Position Paper on Seasonal Prediction: Report from the First WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, June 4–7, 2007, Barcelona, Spain. WCRP Informal Report No. 3/2008, ICPO Publication No. 127.Seasonal prediction skill of 4 models overWestern Europe and Eastern Africa E. Sánchez-García (esanchezg@aemet.es) AEMET, Santander, EspañaJ. Voces-Aboy (jvocesa@aemet.es) AEMET, Santander, EspañaE. Rodríguez-Camino (erodriguezc@aemet.es) AEMET, Madrid, España 4rd General AssemblyWinterthur, 29 Sep - 01 Oct 2015The main objective of this poster is to show the skill ofseasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation forupdated versions of four systems (integrated in theEUROSIP framework) over two selected domains (coveringEastern Africa and Western Europe).Two probabilistic skill scores (ROC Area and RPPS) --presented as bubble plots and tables-- are selected forcommunicating differences in skill depending on model,variable, region and season.2.- DATAThe original anomaly data were threemonthly averaged and up-scaled to acommon 1ºx1º lat-lon grid to verifyseasonal models outputs.3.- METHODOLOGY OF VERIFICATIONSeasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation anomalies obtained with the four different forecastingsystems here considered are verified using two probabilistic skill scores. The anomalies -- computed as thedifference between the forecasted and climatological values for each system-- are obtained by cross-validated forecasts on data not used in the estimation. The anomalies of the observation datasets havebeen computed in a similar way.We have used the last 20 years (when available) or the maximum number of years available as verificationperiod covered by the hindcasts of the forecast systems.Two skill scores (Wilks 1995) have been computed over a selected domain over Eastern Africa and WesternEurope for 12 different three-month periods and for lead time 1:• Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS) for terciles• Lower/Upper Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) area1.- INTRODUCTIONR1WESTERN EUROPE4.- BUBBLE PLOTS  - ROC SKILL SCORE (UPPER AND LOWER TERCILES)VeriEASTERN AFRICAVeriGloSea5MF4S4 CFSv2GloSea5MF4S4 CFSv2GloSea5MF4S4 CFSv2GloSea5MF4S4 CFSv25.-TABLES:  RPSS and ROCSSForecast System Verification PeriodS4 1991-2010MF4 1992-2010GloSea5 1997-2008CFSv2 1991-2010Hindcasts of the following seasonal coupled atmosphere-ocean models have beenused for their verification at seasonal time scales: ECMWF System 4 (S4), NCEP(CFSv2), Météo-France System 4 (MF4) and UK Met Office GloSea5.Depending on the area and variable, the following datasets have been used forverification: 1) ERA-Interim monthly temperature dataset 2) E-OBS griddeddataset from the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project and 3) GPCC precipitation dataset.6.- RESULTSTemperature - JJA Precipitation - DJF Iberia Northern EthiopiaA preliminary inspection of the maps and tables shows the following features for the conducted verification of seasonal forecasts:• As expected, there is generally higher skill for temperature than for precipitation and for E-Africa than for Europe.• For summer W-Europe temperature:• General higher skill over Balkans, S-Europe, W-Scandinavia and lower over C-Europe. • S4 shows higher skill over Mediterranean and W-Scandinavia, MF4 shows higher skill over France/Iberia.• For summer E-Africa temperature:• General higher skill over Tanzania (except CSFv2).• Better than climatology for all seasons over N-Ethiopia.• S4 performs very well over the entire region.• For winter W-Europe precipitation:   • Noticeable skill of S4 and GloSea5 over Western facade (NAO better catched?).• For summer E-Africa precipitation:• High skill for all models over most of the area except Tanzania.• Noticeable higher skill of S4 over N-Ethiopia.Temperature - JJA Precipitation - JJA 

Seasonal prediction skill of 4 models over Western Europe and Eastern Africa

https://repositorio.aemet.es/bitstream/20.500.11765/12808/2/EUPORIAS_GA2015_4models.pdf

Seasonal prediction skill of 4 models over Western Europe and Eastern Africa

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