Les comptes financiers de la Nation en 2008 : les taux d’endettement des agents non financiers augmentent toujours.

En 2008, le retournement de la conjoncture économique et les tensions financières affectent significativement les comportements de placement et de financement des agents non financiers. Les ménages privilégient les supports liquides et peu risqués. Ménages et entreprises font moins appel aux crédits bancaires mais leur taux d’endettement augmente encore.Comptes financiers nationaux, compte financier provisoire, agents non financiers, ménages, sociétés non financières, administrations publiques, sociétés d’assurance et OPCVM, établissements de crédit, non-résidents, financements et placements, endettement, dépôts, refinancement interbancaire, titres de créance, crédits, actions, titres d’OPCVM, assurance-vie, bons du Trésor, obligations, plan d’épargne logement, contrats en euros/unités de compte.

Short-Run Assessment of French Economic Activity Using OPTIM.

This paper describes a short-term projection model for French economic activity, OPTIM, the aim of which is twofold. First it gives an early estimate of real GDP growth for the previous quarter, when no figure has yet been released by Insee, the French National Statistical Institute, along with flash estimates for main GDP components (consumption, investment, inventories and external trade) together with a breakdown by sectors (services, manufacturing, construction, equipment, agri-food). This appears particularly useful for the short-run analysis. In this respect OPTIM may be considered as a traditional bridge equation model since it links a particular indicator available generally ahead of the release of the quarterly national accounts with a quarterly aggregate like GDP, consumption…. Second, this tool supplies also estimates for GDP growth and its main components for the current quarter and for the next quarter (i.e two and three quarters respectively following the latest reference period of Insee's GDP data release). A pool of (mainly) monthly variables is used, which are, sometimes, directly introduced in the specification but, more often, summarised by the implementation of a principal component analysis (PCA). The largest part of the set of indicators comprises survey data together with monthly traditional indicators (industrial production, consumption in manufactured goods…). But other data (in particular financial data) are also introduced. The outcomes of OPTIM rely on a relatively complex procedure involving about twenty equations and mixing two alternative approaches: a supply approach consisting in a direct modelling of GDP and a demand approach where GDP is the sum of consumption, investment, changes in stocks and net trade (exports minus imports). The discrepancy between these two estimates is distributed according to an original method, yielding a unique GDP estimation. The paper is organised as follows. Section 1 presents the main features of OPTIM. Section 2 deals with data description while section 3 addresses the data assessment's issue. In section 4, the main equations are described. Section 5 presents a general assessment of OPTIM in terms of forecasting record. Finally section 6 concludes and proposes some avenues for further developments.

Les comptes financiers de la Nation en 2009 : réorientation des flux de financement vers les administrations publiques.

En 2009, les ménages et les sociétés non financières ont moins recours à l’endettement, alors que les administrations publiques accroissent fortement leurs émissions en réponse au creusement de leur besoin de financement.Comptes financiers nationaux, compte financier provisoire, agents non financiers, ménages, sociétés non financières, administrations publiques, sociétés d’assurance et OPCVM, établissements de crédit, non-résidents, financements et placements, endettement, dépôts, refinancement interbancaire, titres de créance, crédits, actions, titres d’OPCVM, assurance-vie, bons du Trésor, obligations, plan d’épargne-logement, contrats en euros/unités de compte.

Les comptes financiers de la Nation en 2007 : sur fond de tensions sur les marchés financiers, dynamisme persistant du crédit aux agents non financiers.

En 2007, les tensions sur les marchés ont des répercussions limitées sur les opérations financières des ménages et des entreprises : les ménages augmentent leurs placements monétaires et la collecte des OPCVM diminue fortement ; les entreprises réduisent leurs émissions de titres de créance, mais le crédit bancaire reste dynamique.Comptes financiers nationaux, compte financier provisoire, agents non financiers, ménages, sociétés non financières, administrations publiques, sociétés d’assurance et OPCVM, établissements de crédit, non-résidents, financements et placements, endettement, dépôts, refinancement interbancaire, titres de créance, crédits, actions, titres d’OPCVM, assurance-vie, bons du Trésor, obligations, plan d’épargne logement, contrats en euros/unités de compte.

Les comptes financiers de la Nation en 2010 : reprise du crédit et poursuite de la hausse des taux d’endettement.

En 2010, la reprise de la distribution du crédit bénéficie largement aux ménages. L’endettement des agents non financiers atteint un nouveau plus haut.Comptes financiers, agents non financiers, ménages, sociétés non financières, administrations publiques, sociétés d’assurance, OPCVM, établissements de crédit, non-résidents, financements et placements, endettement, dépôts, refinancement interbancaire, titres de créance, crédits, actions, titres d’OPCVM, assurance-vie, bons du Trésor, plan d’épargne-logement, contrats en euros/unités de compte.

National financial accounts in 2009: a shift in financing flows towards general government.

In 2009, the borrowing requirement of non-financial corporations and households declined,whereas general government sharply increased issuance to meet its rising fi nancing needs.national fi nancial accounts, provisional financial account, non-financial sector, households, non-financial corporations, general government, insurance corporations and mutual funds, credit institutions, non-residents, financing and investment, debt, deposits, interbank refinancing, debt securities, loans, equities, mutual fund shares, life insurance, Treasury bills, bonds, housing savings schemes (PELs), euro-denominated/unit-linked policies.

National Financial Accounts in 2008: a further rise in non-financial sector debt.

In 2008, the economic downturn and financial pressures significantly impacted the borrowing and investment behaviour of non-financial agents. Households favoured liquid and low-risk savings instruments. Households and fi rms reduced bank borrowings but their debt ratios rose further.National financial accounts, provisional financial account, non-financial agents, households, non-financial corporations, general government, insurance corporations and mutual funds, credit institutions, non-residents, financing and investment, debt, deposits, interbank refi nancing, debt securities, loans, equities, mutual fund shares, life insurance, Treasury bills, bonds, housing savings schemes (PELs),euro-denominated/unit-linked policies.

Economic activity and recession probabilities: information content and predictive power of the term spread in Italy

The aim of the present article is to examine the information content of the Italian term spread as for real economic growth rates and recession probabilities and to test its predictive power in forecasting regime probabilities. To this end the relationship between the term spread and economic growth rates is modelled as a nonlinear one and specifically the Logistic Smooth Transition model is used, while a probit model is implemented to forecast recession probabilities. Specific to this article is the use of the OECD business cycle chronology, which was never used before to this end for the Italian case. Overall evidence supports the informative content of the spread in Italy over the whole period (1984-2005) although results are more satisfactory as from 1992. In particular, recession forecasts are generally better than those obtained with other chronologies previously adopted for the Italian case (ISAE and ECRI).