Towards the elimination of dog-mediated rabies: development and application of an evidence-based management tool

Abstract: Background: International organizations advocate for the elimination of dog-mediated rabies, but there is only limited guidance on interpreting surveillance data for managing elimination programmes. With the regional programme in Latin America approaching elimination of dog-mediated rabies, we aimed to develop a tool to evaluate the programme’s performance and generate locally-tailored rabies control programme management guidance to overcome remaining obstacles. Methods: We developed and validated a robust algorithm to classify progress towards rabies elimination within sub-national administrative units, which we applied to surveillance data from Brazil and Mexico. The method combines criteria that are easy to understand, including logistic regression analysis of case detection time series, assessment of rabies virus variants, and of incursion risk. Subjecting the algorithm to robustness testing, we further employed simulated data sub-sampled at differing levels of case detection to assess the algorithm’s performance and sensitivity to surveillance quality. Results: Our tool demonstrated clear epidemiological transitions in Mexico and Brazil: most states progressed rapidly towards elimination, but a few regressed due to incursions and control lapses. In 2015, dog-mediated rabies continued to circulate in the poorest states, with foci remaining in only 1 of 32 states in Mexico, and 2 of 27 in Brazil, posing incursion risks to the wider region. The classification tool was robust in determining epidemiological status irrespective of most levels of surveillance quality. In endemic settings, surveillance would need to detect less than 2.5% of all circulating cases to result in misclassification, whereas in settings where incursions become the main source of cases the threshold detection level for correct classification should not be less than 5%. Conclusion: Our tool provides guidance on how to progress effectively towards elimination targets and tailor strategies to local epidemiological situations, while revealing insights into rabies dynamics. Post-campaign assessments of dog vaccination coverage in endemic states, and enhanced surveillance to verify and maintain freedom in states threatened by incursions were identified as priorities to catalyze progress towards elimination. Our finding suggests genomic surveillance should become increasingly valuable during the endgame for discriminating circulating variants and pinpointing sources of incursions

Cause of Death and Predictors of All-Cause Mortality in Anticoagulated Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation : Data From ROCKET AF

M. Kaste on työryhmän ROCKET AF Steering Comm jäsen.Background-Atrial fibrillation is associated with higher mortality. Identification of causes of death and contemporary risk factors for all-cause mortality may guide interventions. Methods and Results-In the Rivaroxaban Once Daily Oral Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared with Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation (ROCKET AF) study, patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation were randomized to rivaroxaban or dose-adjusted warfarin. Cox proportional hazards regression with backward elimination identified factors at randomization that were independently associated with all-cause mortality in the 14 171 participants in the intention-to-treat population. The median age was 73 years, and the mean CHADS(2) score was 3.5. Over 1.9 years of median follow-up, 1214 (8.6%) patients died. Kaplan-Meier mortality rates were 4.2% at 1 year and 8.9% at 2 years. The majority of classified deaths (1081) were cardiovascular (72%), whereas only 6% were nonhemorrhagic stroke or systemic embolism. No significant difference in all-cause mortality was observed between the rivaroxaban and warfarin arms (P=0.15). Heart failure (hazard ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.33-1.70, P= 75 years (hazard ratio 1.69, 95% CI 1.51-1.90, P Conclusions-In a large population of patients anticoagulated for nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, approximate to 7 in 10 deaths were cardiovascular, whereasPeer reviewe

Management tool to guide rabies elimination programmes

ObjectiveTo provide surveillance tools to support policymakers andpractitioners to identify epidemiological situations and inform theprogressive implementation of rabies elimination programmes.IntroductionGlobal targets for elimination of human rabies mediated by dogshave been set for 2030. In the Americas countries are progressingtowards interruption of transmission and declaration of rabiesfreedom1. Guidance for managing elimination programmes toensure continued progress during the endgame is critical, yet oftenlimited and lacking in specific recommendations. Characteristicspatiotemporal incidence patterns are indicative of progress, andthrough their identification, tailored guidance can be provided.MethodsUsing SIRVERA, a surveillance database for rabies in theAmericas2, we developed a classification framework for identificationof epidemiological situations at subnational level. Each situationexhibits a characteristic pattern identified via a set of objective criteriaincluding trends in case detection, assessment of virus variants, caselocations and measures of incursion risk.We refined our framework through application to Mexico inconsultation with stakeholders. To understand factors predictingincursions we analysed state-level data on vaccination campaigns,populations and socioeconomic indicators employing multivariateregression models.ResultsWe were able to classify all states in Mexico and providecorrespondingly tailored guidance. Control efforts have resultedin progress towards elimination; however rabies still circulatesendemically in one state Chiapas, putting its neighbours at risk ofre-emergence.Epidemiological and socioeconomic factors associated withincursions were primarily geographic proximity to endemic and high-prevalence states, and inconsistent vaccination campaigns associatedwith a low human development index.ConclusionsOur management tool can support rabies programme managersat subnational levels to identify their epidemiological situation,develop tailored plans to meet targets, and sustainably maintainrabies freedom, as demonstrated for Mexico. Effective surveillanceis critical for disease elimination. Control options differ dependingon whether disease circulates intermittently through reintroductionsor persists focally, but with poor detection these situations mightbe indistinguishable. Our analysis enables identification of at-riskareas and methods to reduce risk. Investment in remaining endemicareas, through improved implementation and monitoring of mass dogvaccinations, is expected to provide the most cost-effective approachto elimination whilst preventing re-emergence elsewhere.Decision-tree framework.Rabies incursions in Mexico, 2005-2015. Blue circles indicate incursionlocations, and resulting outbreak sizes, with darker shading for more recentincursions. Red shading indicates the duration of endemic circulation over theten-year period

Management tool to guide rabies elimination programmes

ObjectiveTo provide surveillance tools to support policymakers andpractitioners to identify epidemiological situations and inform theprogressive implementation of rabies elimination programmes.IntroductionGlobal targets for elimination of human rabies mediated by dogshave been set for 2030. In the Americas countries are progressingtowards interruption of transmission and declaration of rabiesfreedom1. Guidance for managing elimination programmes toensure continued progress during the endgame is critical, yet oftenlimited and lacking in specific recommendations. Characteristicspatiotemporal incidence patterns are indicative of progress, andthrough their identification, tailored guidance can be provided.MethodsUsing SIRVERA, a surveillance database for rabies in theAmericas2, we developed a classification framework for identificationof epidemiological situations at subnational level. Each situationexhibits a characteristic pattern identified via a set of objective criteriaincluding trends in case detection, assessment of virus variants, caselocations and measures of incursion risk.We refined our framework through application to Mexico inconsultation with stakeholders. To understand factors predictingincursions we analysed state-level data on vaccination campaigns,populations and socioeconomic indicators employing multivariateregression models.ResultsWe were able to classify all states in Mexico and providecorrespondingly tailored guidance. Control efforts have resultedin progress towards elimination; however rabies still circulatesendemically in one state Chiapas, putting its neighbours at risk ofre-emergence.Epidemiological and socioeconomic factors associated withincursions were primarily geographic proximity to endemic and high-prevalence states, and inconsistent vaccination campaigns associatedwith a low human development index.ConclusionsOur management tool can support rabies programme managersat subnational levels to identify their epidemiological situation,develop tailored plans to meet targets, and sustainably maintainrabies freedom, as demonstrated for Mexico. Effective surveillanceis critical for disease elimination. Control options differ dependingon whether disease circulates intermittently through reintroductionsor persists focally, but with poor detection these situations mightbe indistinguishable. Our analysis enables identification of at-riskareas and methods to reduce risk. Investment in remaining endemicareas, through improved implementation and monitoring of mass dogvaccinations, is expected to provide the most cost-effective approachto elimination whilst preventing re-emergence elsewhere.Decision-tree framework.Rabies incursions in Mexico, 2005-2015. Blue circles indicate incursionlocations, and resulting outbreak sizes, with darker shading for more recentincursions. Red shading indicates the duration of endemic circulation over theten-year period

Progress towards rabies elimination from Pemba Island, Southern Tanzania.

Online Journal of Public Health Informatics. Volume 9(1); 2017Using active surveillance approaches to investigate the transmission dynamics of rabies on Pemba Island and across Southern Tanzania, whilst a large-scale dog vaccination program was underway1 , to gain a greater understanding of the dynamics of infection as the disease is driven towards eliminatio