Predicting the treatment response of certolizumab for individual adult patients with rheumatoid arthritis: protocol for an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND A model that can predict treatment response for a patient with specific baseline characteristics would help decision-making in personalized medicine. The aim of the study is to develop such a model in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients who receive certolizumab (CTZ) plus methotrexate (MTX) therapy, using individual participant data meta-analysis (IPD-MA). METHODS We will search Cochrane CENTRAL, PubMed, and Scopus as well as clinical trial registries, drug regulatory agency reports, and the pharmaceutical company websites from their inception onwards to obtain randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating CTZ plus MTX compared with MTX alone in treating RA. We will request the individual-level data of these trials from an independent platform (http://vivli.org). The primary outcome is efficacy defined as achieving either remission (based on ACR-EULAR Boolean or index-based remission definition) or low disease activity (based on either of the validated composite disease activity measures). The secondary outcomes include ACR50 (50% improvement based on ACR core set variables) and adverse events. We will use a two-stage approach to develop the prediction model. First, we will construct a risk model for the outcomes via logistic regression to estimate the baseline risk scores. We will include baseline demographic, clinical, and biochemical features as covariates for this model. Next, we will develop a meta-regression model for treatment effects, in which the stage 1 risk score will be used both as a prognostic factor and as an effect modifier. We will calculate the probability of having the outcome for a new patient based on the model, which will allow estimation of the absolute and relative treatment effect. We will use R for our analyses, except for the second stage which will be performed in a Bayesian setting using R2Jags. DISCUSSION This is a study protocol for developing a model to predict treatment response for RA patients receiving CTZ plus MTX in comparison with MTX alone, using a two-stage approach based on IPD-MA. The study will use a new modeling approach, which aims at retaining the statistical power. The model may help clinicians individualize treatment for particular patients. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION PROSPERO registration number pending (ID#157595)

Negative effects of positive stereotypes: Reconsidering the experiments by Siy and Cheryan (2016)

In study 1, based on the findings of Siy and Cheryan (2016), we investigated whether female targets who heard a positive stereotype of women would perceive the stereotype holder as a prejudiced person and whether two factors, a sense of depersonalization and belief of being negatively stereotyped, would mediate the process. In Study 2, we investigated the moderating effect of benevolent sexism on participant attitudes. Using a sample of female university students in Japan, we found that hearing a positive stereotype induced a sense of depersonalization as well as the perception of being a target of prejudice. However, we did not find any well-explained mediating or moderating effects. Further research should investigate the negative effects of positive stereotypes specifying the gender of a stereotype holder (i.e., a member of out-group or in-group) and measuring the perceived traits (e.g. warmth) of the stereotype holder.本論文は，2018年度に広島大学教育学部で開講された心理学課題演習において，第1著者の指導により第2著者から第6著者が実施した研究をもとに執筆したものである。研究の一部は第2著者から第5著者により中国四国心理学会第74回大会学部生研究発表会において報告された。また，本研究はJSPS科研費JP18K03007の助成を受けた

Evaluation of the effects of climatic and nonclimatic factors on the radial growth of Yezo spruce (Picea jezoensis Carr) by dendrochronological methods

The responses to climatic and nonclimatic factors of Yezo spruce (Picea jezoensis Carr) trees growing in a natural forest in Tomakomai, Hokkaido were analyzed by dendrochronological methods. The effects of climatic factors were examined by response function analysis. More than 70 % of the variance of ring-width and maximum-density indices was explained by climatic data from 1924 to 1965. The effect of nonclimatic factors on radial growth from 1966 to 1990 was analyzed by comparing actual indices with the estimated indices of ring width and maximum density calculated from the climatic data. Actual ring-width indices were lower than the estimated indices every year from 1969 to 1977. Actual maximum-density indices were lower than the estimated indices every year from 1971 to 1974. These results indicate that some nonclimatic factors might have affected both ring width and maximum density in the 1970s. (© Inra/Elsevier, Paris.)Évaluation des effets des facteurs climatiques et non climatiques sur la croissance radiale de l'épinettes de yezo (Picea jezoensis Carr) par les méthodes dendrochronologiques. Les réponses aux facteurs climatiques et non climatiques de l'épinette de yezo (Picea jezoensis Carr) ont été étudiées dans des forêts naturelles du Tomakomai, dans l'île d'Hokkaido, par les méthodes dendrochronologiques. Les effets des facteurs climatiques ont été examinés par l'analyse de fonctions de réponse. Plus de 70 % de la variance des indices de largeur des cernes annuels et de densité maximale ont été expliqués par les données climatiques de 1924 à 1965. L'effet des facteurs non climatiques sur la croissance radiale de 1966 à 1990 a été étudié par la comparaison des indices actuels et des indices estimés de largeur des cernes annuels et de densité maximale, calculés d'après les données climatiques. Les indices actuels de largeur des cernes annuels pour les années 1969 à 1977 sont inférieurs aux indices estimés. Les indices actuels de densité maximale pour les annés 1971 à 1974 sont inférieurs aux indices estimés. Les résultats indiquent que des facteurs non climatiques affectent probablement les largeurs de cernes annuelles et la densité maximale au cours des années 1970. (© Inra/Elsevier, Paris.

Seasonal and Perennial Changes in the Distribution of Water in the Sapwood of Conifers in a Sub-Frigid Zone

An analysis was made of progressive changes in patterns of cavitation in the sapwood of three species of conifer (Larix kaempferi, Abies sachalinensis, and Picea jezoensis) that were growing in a sub-frigid zone. In all three conifers, all tracheids of the newly forming outermost annual ring were filled with water or cytoplasm during the period from May to August. However, many tracheids in the transition zone from earlywood to latewood lost water in September, presumably through drought-induced cavitation. Cavitated tracheids tended to be continuously distributed in a tangential direction. Subsequently, some earlywood tracheids of the outermost annual ring lost water during the period from January to March. This was associated with freeze-thaw cycles. In the second and third annual rings from the cambium of all three conifers, the lumina of most tracheids in the transition zone from earlywood to latewood contained no water. In contrast, some latewood tracheids near the annual ring boundary and many earlywood tracheids retained water in their lumina. The third annual ring had more cavitated tracheids than the second annual ring. Our observations indicated that cavitation progressed gradually in the tracheids of the conifers and that they were never refilled once cavitation had occurred. The region involved in water transport in conifers did not include the entire sapwood and differed among annual rings