Serious Games as a Validation Tool for Decision Support System in Disaster Management—Case of PREDIS

Validation of Decision Support System (DSS) through simulation games or serious game is one way of validating the cognitive capability models through expert opinion. Here, this technique is used to validate PREDIS as a model for DISaster response supplier selection (PREDIS), previously introduced by authors. This DSS is a combination of a PREDictive component (PRED) for predicting the disaster human impact, an estimation component to Estimate the DISaster (EDIS) needs and optimised for supplier based resource allocation. This paper aims to test the suitability of the PREDIS model further for decision-making in the disaster situation. A quasi-experiment design embedded in a participatory simulation game is conducted to compare the opinion of equal sample of 22 experts and non-experts. The following questions are put forward. First, “Does PREDIS model assists the decision makers to make the same decisions faster”. Second, “Does the PREDIS model assist the non-experts as simulated decision makers to decide like an expert”. Using AHP weights of decision makers’ preference as well as borda counts, the decisions are compared. The result shows that PREDIS helps to reduce the decision making time by experts and non-experts within 6 h after the disaster strike, instead of 72 h. It also assist 71% of the non-expert to make similar de-cision as experts. In summary, the PREDIS model has two major capabilities. It enables the experts and non-experts to predict the disaster results immediately and using the widely available data. It also enables the non-experts to decide almost the same as the experts; either in predicting the human impact of the disaster and estimating the needs or in selecting suitable suppliers

Using simulation gaming to validate a mathematical modeling platform for resource allocation in disasters

The extraordinary conditions of a disaster require the mobilisation of all available resources, inducing the rush of humanitarian partners into the affected area This phenomenon called the proliferation of actors, causes serious problems during the disaster response phase including the oversupply, duplicated efforts, lack of planning In an attempt to reduce the partner proliferation problem a framework called PREDIS (PREdictive model for DISaster response partner selection) is put forward to configure the humanitarian network within early hours after disaster strike when the information is scarce To verify this model a simulation game is designed using two sets of real decision makers (experts and non-experts) in the disaster Haiyan scenario The result shows that using the PREDIS framework 100% of the experts could make the same decisions less than six hours comparing to 72 hours Also between 71% and 86% of the times experts and non-experts decide similarly using the PREDIS framewor

A Multi-Attribute decision support system for allocation of humanitarian cluster resources , based on decision makers’ perspective

The rush of the humanitarian suppliers into the disaster area proved to be counter-productive. To reduce this proliferation problem, the present research is designed to provide a technique for supplier ranking/selection in disaster response using the principles of utility theory. A resource allocation problem is solved using optimisation based on decision maker’s preferences. Due to the lack of real-time data in the first 72 h after the disaster strike, a Decision Support System (DSS) framework called EDIS is introduced to employ secondary historical data from disaster response in four humanitarian clusters (WASH: Water, Sanitation and Hygiene, Nutrition, Health, and Shelter) to estimate the demand of the affected population. A methodology based on multi-attribute decision-making (MADM), Analytical Hierarchy processing (AHP) and Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) provides the following results. First a need estimation technique is put forward to estimate minimum standard requirements for disaster response. Second, a method for optimization of the humanitarian partners selection is provided based on the resources they have available during the response phase. Third, an estimate of resource allocation is provided based on the preferences of the decision makers. This method does not require real-time data from the aftermath of the disasters and provides the need estimation, partner selection and resource allocation based on historical data before the MIRA report is released

The Partner Proliferation Problem in Disaster Response Networks

The extraordinary conditions of a major disaster require mobilization of all available resources. This necessity, together with the stretch in the response budget in the public sector and the difficulty of raising funds in the private sector, draws various humanitarian actors with widely diverse capabilities into the affected area. This phenomenon is called the proliferation of actors, or the partner proliferation problem. This problem can have serious counterproductive effects on disaster operations, such as unmanaged independent efforts that lead to a duplication and confusion of effort. The disaster response phase generally lacks the contributions of a long-term outlook and pre-planning, which are adopted in existing long-term structures such as supply chains. The aim of this paper is to provide a structured review of the partner proliferation problem in the response phase and to suggest alternative courses of action for restructuring the disaster response network. Drawing on the concept of Virtual Organizations, the paper concludes that short-term collaboration is a suitable structure for the response phase. Short-term collaboration in the response phase is complementary to long-term collaborations such as supply chains in the recovery, mitigation, and preparedness phases of the disaster cycle. To that end, a conceptual framework is provided for re-structuring the disaster response network to align with the other phases of disaster management. Finally, further research is suggested to develop a decision making tool for partner configuration to meet the specific requirements of a disaster response network

A 200 Year Record of Carbon-13 and Carbon-14 Variations in a Bermuda Coral

A 200 year old brain coral, captured in Bermuda in 1976 was slabbed and x-rayed. Using the annual growth bands sequential, dated samples were taken over the entire growth period of the coral and analyzed for Δ14C, δ13C and δ18O. During the past 80 years atmospheric variations in Δ14C and δ13C due to human effects, such as release of bomb C-14 and dilution of both C-14 and C-13 by fossil fuel burning, are closely tracked by the coral. Prior to 1900 divergences between the coral and tree Δ14C and δ13C can be related to world-wide changes in plant production and possibly oceanic upwelling rates

The Iowa Homemaker vol.6, no.3

Table of Contents American Home Economics Association Convention by Katherine L. Goeppinger, page 1 “It Will Be Pleasant to Remember – “ by Marcia E. Turner, page 3 Ellen H. Richards, Pioneer in Home Economics by Cora Rye, page 4 Girls 4-H Club Page, page 5 Home Projects in Food Preparation by Josephine McMullen, page 6 Editorial, page 7 Who’s There and Where, page 8 Where Are You Spending Your Vacation? by Ann Slefke, page 9 Eternal Question, page 1

Evaluation of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of Families for Health V2 for the treatment of childhood obesity : study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: Effective programs to help children manage their weight are required. Families for Health focuses on a parenting approach, designed to help parents develop their parenting skills to support lifestyle change within the family. Families for Health V1 showed sustained reductions in overweight after 2 years in a pilot evaluation, but lacks a randomized controlled trial (RCT) evidence base. Methods/design: This is a multi-center, investigator-blind RCT, with parallel economic evaluation, with a 12-month follow-up. The trial will recruit 120 families with at least one child aged 6 to 11 years who is overweight (≥91st centile BMI) or obese (≥98th centile BMI) from three localities and assigned randomly to Families for Health V2 (60 families) or the usual care control (60 families) groups. Randomization will be stratified by locality (Coventry, Warwickshire, Wolverhampton). Families for Health V2 is a family-based intervention run in a community venue. Parents/carers and children attend parallel groups for 2.5 hours weekly for 10 weeks. The usual care arm will be the usual support provided within each NHS locality. A mixed-methods evaluation will be carried out. Child and parent participants will be assessed at home visits at baseline, 3-month (post-treatment) and 12-month follow-up. The primary outcome measure is the change in the children’s BMI z-scores at 12 months from the baseline. Secondary outcome measures include changes in the children’s waist circumference, percentage body fat, physical activity, fruit/vegetable consumption and quality of life. The parents’ BMI and mental well-being, family eating/activity, parent–child relationships and parenting style will also be assessed. Economic components will encompass the measurement and valuation of service utilization, including the costs of running Families for Health and usual care, and the EuroQol EQ-5D health outcomes. Cost-effectiveness will be expressed in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year gained. A de novo decision-analytic model will estimate the lifetime cost-effectiveness of the Families for Health program. Process evaluation will document recruitment, attendance and drop-out rates, and the fidelity of Families for Health delivery. Interviews with up to 24 parents and children from each arm will investigate perceptions and changes made. Discussion: This paper describes our protocol to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a parenting approach for managing childhood obesity and presents challenges to implementation. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN4503220

University Students’ Perceptions of Social Justice: The Impact of Implementing a Summer Camp for Children with Disabilities

University students who experience real‐world service tend to develop a more inclusive world view and enhanced understandings outside of their personal perspectives. This project combined course objectives, community collaboration, and service provision to identify the impact of students’ understanding of social justice and disability access realities. The purpose of this study was to explore the impact of a service‐learning university course on social justice education. The study explored how constructs including empathy, attitudes towards diversity, self‐efficacy, and personal communication (of undergraduate university students) were impacted by interactions with children with disabilities in a summer camp setting that included various activities (e.g., art, equestrian). The study utilized surveys completed by university students prior to a service‐learning experience and again after the project. Pre‐ and during‐ camp reflection data were also analyzed

Alginate Oligosaccharides modify hyphal infiltration of Candida albicans in an in vitro model of invasive Human Candidosis

AIMS: A novel alginate oligomer (OligoG CF-5/20) has been shown to potentiate antifungal therapy against a range of fungal pathogens. The current study assessed the effect of this oligomer on in vitro virulence factor expression and epithelial invasion by Candida species. METHODS AND RESULTS: Plate substrate assays and epithelial models were used to assess Candida albicans (CCUG 39343 and ATCC 90028) invasion, in conjunction with confocal laser scanning microscopy and histochemistry. Expression of candidal virulence factors was determined biochemically and by quantitative PCR (qPCR). Changes in surface charge of C. albicans following OligoG treatment were analysed using electrophoretic light scattering. OligoG induced marked alterations in hyphal formation in the substrate assays and reduced invasion in the epithelial model (P 0·05), qPCR demonstrated a reduction in phospholipase B (PLB2) and SAPs (SAP4 and SAP6) expression. CONCLUSION: OligoG CF-5/20 reduced in vitro virulence factor expression and invasion by C. albicans. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: These results, and the previously described potentiation of antifungal activity, define a potential therapeutic opportunity in the treatment of invasive candidal infections