UK QE reconsidered: the real economy effects of monetary policy in the UK, 1990-2012 – an empirical analysis

Empirical studies of so called ‘unconventional’ monetary policy – ‘Quantitative Easing’ or ‘Large Scale Asset Purchases’ - since the North Atlantic Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 in the United Kingdom and elsewhere have mainly focussed on the effect of policy on intermediate variables rather than the stated ultimate goal of such policies, boosting nominal demand and GDP growth. Secondly and relatedly they tend to focus on the crisis and post-crisis period, a time of extraordinary economic and financial dislocation, which creates counterfactual and attribution problems and fails to capture typical macroeconomic lag dynamics. Adopting the approach of Voutsinas and Werner (2010), and building on Lyonnet and Werner’s (2012) study of UK QE, this paper addresses these weaknesses by 1) examining the impact of various different monetary policy instruments (including Quantitative Easing) directly on UK nominal GDP growth; and 2) using a quarterly time series beginning in the first quarter of 1990 and up to the last quarter of 2012 (92 observations in total). We use the Hendry ‘general-to-specific’ econometric methodology to estimate a parsimonious model. The results show that disaggregated bank credit to the real economy (households and firms) has the most significant impact on nominal GDP growth. Changes to the central bank’s interest rate, central bank reserves, and total central bank asset ratios drop out of the model as insignificant. The policy implication it that, as private banks continue to shrink their balance sheets in the UK and Europe following the North Atlantic Crisis of 2008, central banks might wish to consider ‘unconventional’ monetary policies that more directly boost credit to the real economy and thus nominal GDP growt

Mapping modern economic rents: the good, the bad, and the grey areas

There is increasing consensus that modern capitalist economies suffer from excessive rent extraction in both financial and real economy sectors. However, scholars have yet to develop a coherent analytical framework for identifying the common characteristics of modern economic rents. In particular, there has been little attention paid to distinguishing ‘good’ rents—key to innovation and growth—from ‘bad’ forms which contribute to economic stagnation and inequalities of wealth and income. This paper takes some first steps in this direction. We first review the existing rent theory most pertinent to this distinction, including classical political economy, the early twentieth century institutionalists, neoclassical perspectives and Keynes’s analysis of financial rentiers. Secondly, we map and conceptualise some key stylised features of modern rents, drawing on descriptive empirical evidence. We then identify the key questions that these developments raise for rent theory, elaborating a new research and policy agenda

Biodiversity loss and climate change interactions: financial stability implications for central banks and financial supervisors

Financial risks related to climate change and biodiversity loss are currently being addressed in a largely siloed manner. Neglecting their interconnections, however, may lead to ‘blind spots’ and misestimations of systemic financial risk, potentially undermining progress on both climate finance policy and emerging policy on biodiversity-related financial risks (BRFR). In particular, the ‘risk measurement–based’ approach dominating climate finance policy, which is now being taken up to address BRFR, is poorly equipped to address the radical uncertainty that characterises both types of risks. Furthermore, many BRFR may materalise over a more immediate horizon than climate risks. In this paper, we examine how central banks and financial supervisors are approaching the topic of BRFR in relation to climate-related financial risk. We argue that policymakers should focus upon the broader concept of systemic environmental-financial risks to account for the interactions and trade-offs between both domains of biodiversity and climate change. Instead of seeking evidence of financial materiality before acting, focusing on how the financial system is actively facilitating direct drivers of environmental damage offers a way for financial policymakers to assess potential sources of such risks on the basis of information available today. In turn, policy interventions should aim to reduce harmful flows of finance that may lead to the crossing of dangerous ecological tipping points

A half-century diversion of monetary policy? An empirical horse-race to identify the UK variable most likely to deliver the desired nominal GDP growth rate

open access articleThe financial crisis of 2007–2008 triggered monetary policy designed to boost nominal demand, including ‘Quantitative Easing’, ‘Credit Easing’, ‘Forward Guidance’ and ‘Funding for Lending’. A key aim of these policies was to boost the quantity of bank credit to the non-financial corporate and household sectors. In the previous decades, however, policy-makers had not focused on bank credit. Indeed, over the past half century, different variables were raised to prominence in the quest to achieve desired nominal GDP outcomes. This paper conducts a long-overdue horse race between the various contenders in terms of their ability to account for observed nominal GDP growth, using a half-century of UK data since 1963. Employing the ‘General-to-Specific’ methodology, an equilibrium-correction model is estimated suggesting a long-run cointegrating relationship between disaggregated real economy credit and nominal GDP. Short-term and long-term interest rates and broad money do not appear to influence nominal GDP significantly. Vector autoregression and vector error correction modelling shows the real economy credit growth variable to be strongly exogenous to nominal GDP growth. Policy-makers are hence right to finally emphasise the role of bank credit, although they need to disaggregate it and specifically target bank credit for GDP-transactions

A study of the profits from money creation in the United Kingdom and Denmark

This paper develops a new theory of seigniorage suited to modern economies where the majority of money is created not by the state or central bank but by commercial banks and other monetary financial institutions via their lending activity. We identify four different forms of seigniorage that take account of the modern institutional separation between the state, the central bank, commercial banks and the non-bank private sector in terms of their identities as ‘money creators’ and ‘money users’. The new typology differentiates between seigniorage profits arising from interest rate spreads on stocks of created money and profits arising from flows of interest payments on newly created assets. We illustrate our theoretical framework with empirical data on commercial bank seigniorage and related variables in the United Kingdom and the Denmark over the past quarter century

Building blocks for the macroeconomics and political economy of housing

Housing has played an essential part in the global financial crisis 2007-08 and the Euro crisis. Large parts of bank lending go to mortgages. Housing wealth is the largest part of wealth for most households and is, at the same time, more dispersed than other forms of wealth. House prices exhibit pronounced fluctuations that are closely linked to credit growth. Housing thus plays a crucial role in the macroeconomy, which has become even more pronounced under neoliberalism. We scrutinise different theoretical approaches to housing. Despite its theoretical shortcomings mainstream economics has pioneered empirical research on wealth effects in consumption and recently documented the role of house prices in financial cycles. Post-Keynesian theory emphasises endogenous money creation, cycles in asset prices and debt, and have formalised the notion of a debt-driven demand regime. Comparative Political Economy research has recently developed the concept of the varieties of residential capitalism, which has different structures of house ownership and housing finance at the core of political coalitions. Marxist political economy has long established the intrinsic link between ownership of land and economic rent and notes that homeownership can act as force of working class fragmentation. Wealth surveys can be used to trace the extent of conflicting interests in a class-relational approach

Respiratory mucosal immune memory to SARS-CoV-2 after infection and vaccination

Respiratory mucosal immunity induced by vaccination is vital for protection from coronavirus infection in animal models. In humans, the capacity of peripheral vaccination to generate sustained immunity in the lung mucosa, and how this is influenced by prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, is unknown. Here we show using bronchoalveolar lavage samples that donors with history of both infection and vaccination have more airway mucosal SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and memory B cells than those only vaccinated. Infection also induces populations of airway spike-specific memory CD4+ and CD8+ T cells that are not expanded by vaccination alone. Airway mucosal T cells induced by infection have a distinct hierarchy of antigen specificity compared to the periphery. Spike-specific T cells persist in the lung mucosa for 7 months after the last immunising event. Thus, peripheral vaccination alone does not appear to induce durable lung mucosal immunity against SARS-CoV-2, supporting an argument for the need for vaccines targeting the airways