Quantifying the Direct Radiative Effect of Absorbing Aerosols for Numerical Weather Prediction: A Case Study

We conceptualize aerosol radiative transfer processes arising from the hypothetical coupling of a global aerosol transport model and a global numerical weather prediction model by applying the US Naval Research Laboratory Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) and the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) meteorological and surface reflectance fields. A unique experimental design during the 2013 NASA Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) field mission allowed for collocated airborne sampling by the high spectral resolution Lidar (HSRL), the Airborne Multi-angle SpectroPolarimetric Imager (AirMSPI), up/down shortwave (SW) and infrared (IR) broadband radiometers, as well as NASA A-Train support from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), to attempt direct aerosol forcing closure. The results demonstrate the sensitivity of modeled fields to aerosol radiative fluxes and heating rates, specifically in the SW, as induced in this event from transported smoke and regional urban aerosols. Limitations are identified with respect to aerosol attribution, vertical distribution, and the choice of optical and surface polarimetric properties, which are discussed within the context of their influence on numerical weather prediction output that is particularly important as the community propels forward towards inline aerosol modeling within global forecast systems

Conceptualizing the impact of dust-contaminated infrared radiances on data assimilation for numerical weather prediction

Numerical weather prediction systems depend on Hyperspectral Infrared Sounder (HIS) data, yet the impacts of dust-contaminated HIS radiances on weather forecasts has not been quantified. To determine the impact of dust aerosol on HIS radiance assimilation, we use a modified radiance assimilation system employing a one-dimensional variational assimilation system (1DVAR) developed under the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Numerical Weather Prediction–Satellite Application Facility (NWP-SAF) project, which uses the Radiative Transfer for TOVS (RTTOV). Dust aerosol impacts on analyzed temperature and moisture fields are quantified using synthetic HIS observations from rawinsonde, Micropulse Lidar Network (MPLNET), and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). Specifically, a unit dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) contamination at 550 nm can introduce larger than 2.4 and 8.6 K peak biases in analyzed temperature and dewpoint, respectively, over our test domain. We hypothesize that aerosol observations, or even possibly forecasts from aerosol predication models, may be used operationally to mitigate dust induced temperature and moisture analysis biases through forward radiative transfer modeling.This study is supported by the NASA ROSES Science of Terra and Aqua program (T. Lee; 80HQTR18T0085). The MPLNET project is funded by the NASA Radiation Sciences Program and Earth Observing System. MPLNET observations at the Santa Cruz de Tenerife site are supported by the INTA Grant IGE03004

The Navy Global Environmental Model

On February 13, 2013, the US Navy's weather forecast system reached a milestone when the NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) replaced the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) for operational global weather prediction. The new operational system NAVGEM 1.1 combines a semi-Lagrangian/semi-implicit dynamical core together with advanced parameterizations of subgrid-scale moist processes, convection, ozone, and radiation. The NAVGEM dynamical core allows for much higher spatial resolutions without the need for the small time steps that would be necessary in NOGAPS. The increased computational efficiency is expected to enable significant increases in resolution in future NAVGEM releases. Model physics improvements in the NAVGEM 1.1 transition include representations of cloud liquid water, cloud ice water, and ozone as fully predicted constituents. Following successful testing of a new mass flux scheme, a second transition to NAVGEM 1.2 occurred on November 6, 2013. Addition of this mass flux parameterization to the eddy diffusion vertical mixing parameterization resulted in a reduction of the cold temperature bias of the lower troposphere over ocean and further increased the forecast skill of NAVGEM

High-Altitude (0-100 km) Global Atmospheric Reanalysis System: Description and Application to the 2014 Austral Winter of the Deep Propagating Gravity-Wave Experiment (DEEPWAVE)

A data assimilation system (DAS) is described for global atmospheric reanalysis from 0-100 km altitude. We apply it to the 2014 austral winter of DEEPWAVE, an international field campaign focused on gravity-wave dynamics from 0-100 km, where an absence of reanalysis above 60 km inhibits research. Four experiments were performed from April-September 2014 and assessed for reanalysis skill above 50 km. A four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) run specified initial background error covariances statically. A hybrid-4DVAR (HYBRID) run formed background error covariances from an 80-member forecast ensemble blended with a static estimate. Each configuration was run at low and high horizontal resolution. In addition to operational observations below 50 km, each experiment assimilated ~105 observations of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) every 6 h. While all MLT reanalyses show skill relative to independent wind and temperature measurements, HYBRID outperforms 4DVAR. MLT fields at 1 h resolution (6 h analysis and 1–5 h forecasts) outperform 6 h analysis alone due to a migrating semidiurnal (SW2) tide that dominates MLT dynamics and is temporally aliased in 6 h time series. MLT reanalyses reproduce observed SW2 winds and temperatures, including phase structures and 10–15 day amplitude vacillations. The 0-100 km reanalyses reveal quasi-stationary planetary waves splitting the stratopause jet in July over New Zealand, decaying from 50–80 km then reintensifying above 80 km, most likely via MLT forcing due to zonal asymmetries in stratospheric gravity-wave filtering