Structural Estimation and Solution of International Trade Models with Heterogeneous Firms

We present an empirical implementation of a general-equilibrium model of international trade with heterogeneous manufacturing firms. The theory underlying our model is consistent with Melitz (2003). A nonlinear structural estimation procedure identifies a set of core parameters and unobserved firm-level trade frictions that best fit the geographic pattern of trade. Once the parameters are identified, we utilize a decomposition technique for computing general-equilibrium counterfactuals. We illustrate this technique using trade and protection data from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). We first assess the economic effects of reductions in measured tariffs. Taking the simple-average welfare change across regions the Melitz structure indicates welfare gains from liberalization that are nearly four times larger than in a standard policy simulation model. Furthermore, when we compare the economic impact of tariffs with reductions in estimated fixed trade costs we find that policy measures affecting the fixed costs of firmentry are of greater importance than conventional tariff barriers.

Trade and Welfare: Does Industrial Organization Matter?

Many contemporary theoretic studies of trade over geography reduce to an ex- amination of constant-elasticity reactions to changes in iceberg trade costs. These impacts are readily analyzed in simple constant-returns models based on the Arm- ington (1969) assumption of regionally differentiated goods. Following the line of reasoning suggested by Arkolakis et al. (2008) one can reach the surprising conclu- sion that industrial organization does not matter. In the present paper, we show that this finding is fragile, and with a minor elaboration of their model, the rich industrial-organization features of the popular Melitz (2003) model do, in fact, gen- erate important differences for trade and welfare.Variety effects, Heterogeneous firms, Gains from trade

Structural Estimation and Solution of International Trade Models with Heterogeneous Firms

We present an empirical implementation of a general-equilibrium model of international trade with heterogeneous manufacturing firms. The theory underlying our model is consistent with Melitz (2003). A nonlinear structural estimation procedure identifies a set of core parameters and unobserved firm-level trade frictions that best fit the geographic pattern of trade. Once the parameters are identified, we utilize a decomposition technique for computing general-equilibrium counterfactuals. We first assess the economic effects of reductions in measured tariffs. Taking the simple-average welfare change across regions the Melitz structure indicates welfare gains from liberalization that are nearly four times larger than in a standard trade policy simulation. Furthermore, when we compare the economic impact of tariff reductions with reductions in estimated fixed trade costs we find that policy measures affecting the fixed costs are of greater importance than tariff barriers

Aggregation bias, compositional change, and the border effect

Borders affect the composition, not only the level, of interregional trade. In disaggregated U.S. Commodity Flow data, border effects vary substantially across commodities. Substantial border-induced compositional change suggests the possibility that standard estimates suffer from aggregation bias arising from endogenous industry location patterns and the presence of zero observations in commodity-level trade. Adjusting for these effects reduces the estimate of the aggregate border effect from 20.9 to 5.7.

A Decomposition of North American Trade Growth since NAFTA

Total U.S. trade with NAFTA partners has increased 78 percent in real terms since 1993-U.S.-Mexico trade alone is up 141 percent- compared to a 43 percent increase in U.S. trade with the rest of the world. In this article we compare the nature of U.S. trade growth with Canada and Mexico to growth in U.S. trade with non-NAFTA partners. We apply a simple decomposition of trade growth offered by Hummels and Klenow (2002) that provides insights into whether the United States is trading more of the same goods with NAFTA partners since 1993, or trading new products. The results provide evidence of both. A sizeable component of U.S. trade growth since 1993 can be explained by increases in the variety of products the U.S. imports from Mexico

A Decomposition of North American Trade Growth since NAFTA

Total U.S. trade with NAFTA partners has increased 78 percent in real terms since 1993U.S.-Mexico trade alone is up 141 percentcompared to a 43 percent increase in U.S. trade with the rest of the world. In this article we compare the nature of U.S. trade growth with Canada and Mexico to growth in U.S. trade with non-NAFTA partners. We apply a simple decomposition of trade growth offered by Hummels and Klenow (2002) that provides insights into whether the United States is trading more of the same goods with NAFTA partners since 1993, or trading new products. The results provide evidence of both. A sizeable component of U.S. trade growth since 1993 can be explained by increases in the variety of products the U.S. imports from Mexico.International Relations/Trade,

Structural Estimation and Solution of International Trade Models with Heterogeneous Firms

We present an empirical implementation of a general-equilibrium model of international trade with heterogeneous manufacturing firms. The theory underlying our model is consistent with Melitz (2003). A nonlinear structural estimation procedure identifies a set of core parameters and unobserved firm-level trade frictions which best fit the geographic pattern of trade. Once the parameters are identified, we utilize a decomposition technique for computing general-equilibrium counterfactuals. We illustrate this technique using trade and protection data from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). We first assess the economic effects of reductions in measured tariffs. Taking the simple-average welfare change across regions the Melitz structure indicates welfare gains from liberalization that are nearly four times larger than in a standard policy simulation model. Furthermore, when we compare the economic impact of tariffs with reductions in estimated fixed trade costs we find that policy measures affecting the fixed costs of firm entry are of greater importance than conventional tariff barriers

Trade and welfare: does industrial organization matter?

Many contemporary theoretic studies of trade over geography reduce to an ex- amination of constant-elasticity reactions to changes in iceberg trade costs. These impacts are readily analyzed in simple constant-returns models based on the Arm- ington (1969) assumption of regionally differentiated goods. Following the line of reasoning suggested by Arkolakis et al. (2008) one can reach the surprising conclu- sion that industrial organization does not matter. In the present paper, we show that this finding is fragile, and with a minor elaboration of their model, the rich industrial-organization features of the popular Melitz (2003) model do, in fact, gen- erate important differences for trade and welfare