Bad news from a forecasting model of the U.S. economy

This paper describes and analyzes the 1990-92 economic forecasts of a Bayesian vector autoregression model developed by researchers at the Minneapolis Fed. The model's 1990 forecast was pretty bad - too optimistic about both inflation and economic growth, especially growth in consumption and housing. An analysis of the model's errors, however, turns up no reason to think the model is unsound. Based on data available on November 30, 1990, the model predicts weak economic conditions for the next two years: a likely recession in 1991 and moderate inflation and weak overall growth in 1991-92. The paper includes a technical appendix that describes how to statistically compare the accuracy of two sets of forecasts.Forecasting

Revisionist history: how data revisions distort economic policy research

This article describes how and why official U.S. estimates of the growth in real economic output and inflation are revised over time, demonstrates how big those revisions tend to be, and evaluates whether the revisions matter for researchers trying to understand the economy’s performance and the contemporaneous reactions of policymakers. The conclusion may seem obvious, but it is a point ignored by most researchers: To have a good chance of understanding how policymakers make their decisions, researchers must use not the final data available, but the data available initially, when the policy decisions are actually made.Economic policy

The U.S. economy in 1990 and 1991: continued expansion likely

This paper reports an optimistic forecast of U.S. output and inflation trends in 1990_91. Generated by a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model of the U.S. economy using data available on November 30, 1989, the forecast is more optimistic than a consensus forecast. The key to the model's greater optimism for real growth is its outlook for strong consumer spending. The model's optimism is defended by examining historical precedents as well as comparing the track records of the model and consensus forecasts. The model's measures of forecast uncertainty, however, suggest that its predictions should be taken cautiously. An appendix explains how the model can be used to generate conditional forecasts.Economic conditions - United States ; Forecasting ; Business forecasting

A bleak outlook for the U.S. economy

Economic activity in the United States has been growing more slowly than average for the past three years, and it is not likely to speed up soon. The slow growth has been due primarily to pessimism among consumers about their long-run personal income. That pessimism—and its extension to the U.S. economy as a whole—is confirmed by data on real estate prices and labor force participation and by the 1992–93 forecast of a Bayesian vector autoregression model.Business forecasting

Why no crunch from the crash?

Stock - Prices ; Stock market

Learning to be unpredictable : an experimental study.

This study tests experimentally whether the ability of subjects to play a noncooperative game's mixed-strategy equilibrium (to make their play unpredictable) is affected by how much information subjects have about the structure of the game. Subjects played the mixed-strategy equilibrium when they had all the information about other players' payoffs and actions, but not otherwise. Previous research has shown that players of a game can play a mixed-strategy equilibrium if they observe the actions of all players and use sophisticated Bayesian learning to infer the likely payoffs to other players. The result of this study suggests that the subjects in our experiments did not use sophisticated Bayesian learning. The result also suggests that economists should be careful about assuming in their models that people can easily infer everyone else's payoffs.Game theory

Are economic forecasts rational?

This paper discusses at an undergraduate level how forecast rationality can be tested. It explains that forecasters should correctly use any relevant information they knew in making their predictions. It shows that forecast rationality can be tested by determining whether the forecasters' prediction errors are predictable. After addressing what data and methods can be used for testing rationality, the paper presents tests of the price-forecast rationality of individual professional forecasters. Unlike results of previous studies, the test results show that those forecasters' price predictions appear to be rational.Forecasting ; Rational expectations (Economic theory)

The U.S. economy in 1989 and 1990: walking a fine line

Economic policy ; Forecasting

Delayed financial disclosure: Mexico's recent experience

This article documents a delay in the public release of Mexican international reserve data in the months before Mexico's debt crisis at the end of 1994. The article establishes that in that year investors did not know the level of Mexican reserves before October; yet this lack of information did not seem to reduce investor confidence in the Mexican economy. The article does not establish whether the delay in releasing reserve data was due to logistical problems or to a government strategy. The possibility that the delay was strategic is evaluated by developing an economic model that captures some of the principal constraints facing the Mexican government in 1994 and that makes explicit the conflicting objectives of the government and investors. The model shows that in such an environment with private information, strategic delay can occur in equilibrium if investors are uncertain about the cause of the delay.Mexico ; Devaluation of currency ; Peso, Mexican

The Easy Case for Derivatives Use: Advocating a Corporate Fiduciary Duty to Use Derivatives

This Article hypothesizes that directors have a duty to shareholders to investigate and evaluate how derivatives could minimize risk to their organization. Even more, corporations have a duty to use derivatives if overall portfolio risk will thereby be reduced. Part I of this Article defines and describes the major types of derivatives and explains how and why they are used. Part II investigates the risks of derivatives, comparing these risks to other investment instruments. Part III introduces a new conceptualization of derivatives through exploration of three issues surrounding their use: (1) brokers\u27 liabilities to investors when financial losses result; (2) corporate liability to shareholders for losses; and (3) the possibility that in certain contexts, a corporation has a duty to its shareholders to use derivatives to manage business risk. Part IV proposes a risk management strategy designed to minimize the inherent risks of derivatives and to maximize their advantages in managing ordinary business risk. Part V concludes with a look to the future of derivatives. Derivatives, Duty, Risk Minimizatio