Značaj fenoloških osmatranja i prognoziranja u poljoprivredi

Phenology can contribute to many scientific disciplines from climate change, biodiversity, agriculture and forestry to human health. The knowledge of timing of phenological events and their variability can provide valuable data for planning, organizing and timely execution of certain standard and special (preventive and protective) agricultural activities that require advanced information on the dates of specific stages of crop development. Mathematical models are the basic tools to predict the timing of phenological events. There are two types of phenological models: physiologically-based and statistical. Most of the existing models are statistical and serve to predict the onset of different phenophases according to the air temperature. These models are site- and species-specific and cannot be applied to a wide range of species and climatic conditions.Fenološka osmatranja imaju značaj za mnoge naučne oblasti, naročito za klimatologiju, biologiju, medicinu i biotehniku. Sistematska fenološka osmatranja u Srbiji započela su 1951. godine, znatno kasnije nego u nekim drugim delovima sveta. Uprkos nedostacima statističkih modela prognoziranja fenološke dinamike, oni u određenim slučajevima daju zadovoljavajuće rezultate i nalaze različite primene. Ukoliko se selektivno primene na određenu vrstu u određenim klimatskim uslovima, mogu pružiti vredne informacije: za planiranje i pravovremeno izvođenje agrotehničkih i fitotehničkih mera i postupaka; za predviđanje vremena sazrevanja plodova, njihovog kvaliteta i visine prinosa; za rejonizaciju gajenja pojedinih novostvorenih i introdukovanih sorti; za selekciju sorti u cilju minimiziranja nepovoljnog dejstva stresnih faktora (posebno mraza); za procenu posledica globalnih i regionalnih klimatskih promena po poljoprivrednu proizvodnju i sl. Izrada modela za fenološke prognoze koji bi važili za šire geografske oblasti omogućilo bi osmišljavanje strategije ublažavanja i otklanjanja štetnih posledica vremenskih i klimatskih kolebanja, što bi značajno unapredilo rezultate ne samo biljne proizvodnje, već i neke druge aspekte ljudske egzistencije

Određivanje zona različitog trajanja vegetacije šljive na prostoru Srbije

Zoning of Serbia territory was performed according to the length of active period of photosynthesis for plum cv. Požegača. Relations between thermal indicators of location and plum growing period length are examined. It was found that the length of growing period is of great extent, determined by the length of frost-free period, as well as by the mean annual air temperature and the mean air temperature for the growing period. The study was carried out using data from 55 phenological and 26 climatological stations in Serbia for the period from 1961 to 1995.U radu je izvršeno zoniranje prostora Srbije na osnovu srednjeg trajanja fotosinetske aktivnosti listova šljive sorte Požegača. Analizirani su i odnosi toplotnih pokazatelja lokaliteta i trajanja vegetacije ove voćke na osnovu podataka sa 55 fenoloških i 26 klimatoloških stanica u Srbiji u periodu od 1961. do 1995. godine. Toplotni uslovi sredine u velikoj meri određuju početak listanja ove voćke, ali ne i fenološku fazu žućenja listova. Dugom vegetacijom šljive požegače odlikuju se lokaliteti sa visokim srednjom godišnjim i srednjom vegetacionom (april - oktobar) temperaturama vazduha i dugim bezmraznim periodom. Mesta sa visokom srednjom temperaturom vazduha u martu i srednjim datumom pojave poslednjeg mraza do 5. aprila, predstavljaju potencijalno povoljne lokalitete za gajenje sorti šljive ranog vremena zrenja

Uticaj toplotnog režima na vreme berbe šljive sorte požegača u Srbiji

The impact of thermal regime on picking dates of plum trees is examined in this study. Spatial distribution of harvesting time in Serbia is obtaineded using phenological observations from 40 stations. Thermal regime is determined using Kerner's coefficient of continental climate. Picking dates of plum trees in Serbia vary over the 35-day time interva. The earliest date of ripening is August 24, i.e. 26 in Negotin, i.e. Zaječar, respectively while the latest dates were September 27, i.e. in on the mountain Zlatibor respectively. Extreme values of Kerner's coefficient of -3.1 and 9.2 were found at the same locations: Negotin and Zlatibor, respectively. The Value of correlation coefficient (R2 = 0,8023) points out to the significant dependence of picking dates on the thermal regime type. A severe continental type of the thermal regime (April warmer than October and large annual range of air temperature) causes earlier ripening of plum trees, while a mountain type of thermal regime (October much warmer than April and small annual range of air temperature) delays fruit ripening comparing to a moderate continental type of the thermal regime (October warmer than April and medium annual range of air temperature). It was found that same correlation between the thermal regime type and harvesting time existed over different locations for the same time period and one location for different years.U radu je analiziran uticaj toplotnog režima na vreme berbe šljive požegače. Prostorna raspodela vremena berbe požegače u Srbiji je određena na osnovu srednjeg datuma berbe na 40 lokacija za period od 1961. do 1995. godine, a tip toplotnog režima posmatranih lokacija izračunavanjem vrednosti Kernerovog koeficijenta kontinentalnosti na osnovu srednjih mesečnih temperatura za isti vremenski period. Uporednom analizom klimatoloških i fenoloških osmatranja utvrđeno je da u odnosu na umereno kontinentalni klimatski tip pojačano kontinentalni tip toplotnog režima uslovljava ranije, a planisnki tip toplotnog režima kasnije sazrevanje šljive požegače

Određivanje agroklimatski povoljnih zona za gajenje sorti jabuke duge vegetacije u Srbiji

The favorability for growing apple cultivars with a long vegetation period in Serbia was observed using phenological data form 54 phenological and 24 climatological stations in Serbia in the period from 1961 to 1995. The length of the active period of photosynthesis for the cultivar Jonathan ranges from 169 days in Ivanjica to 211 days in Obrenovac. The average length of this period was strongly correlated with a length of a frost-free period (r = 0.76), while the mean annual air temperature and the mean temperature for the period April-October had a smaller impact on the duration of this period. It was found that the beginning of a growing season was mainly regulated by the temperature after the dormancy was released, while the end and the duration of the growing season were less clearly explained by thermal conditions of a location. The length of the frost-free period may serve as an indicator of favorability of a certain location for the commercial production of apple cultivars with the long growing season in the stated location, although only as necessary but not as sufficient condition. Taking into account the active period of photosynthesis and the length of the frost-free period, four zones of different degrees of favorability for growing apples of the long growing season in Serbia were defined. The most favorable zone encompasses the following regions: Srem, Posavina, Tamnava and lower Podrinje. .U radu su određene zone najmanjeg rizika za gajenje sorti jabuke duge vegetacije na teritoriji Srbije na osnovu srednjeg trajanja fotosinetske aktivnosti listova sorte jonatan i srednje dužine bezmraznog perioda. Za analizu su korišćeni podaci sa 54 fenološke i 24 klimatološke stanice u Srbiji u periodu od 1961. do 1995. godine.

Mogućnosti prognoziranja prinosa maline u ariljskom malinogorju

Analysis of meteorological and raspberry yield data for the region of Arilje from 1982 to 1997 showed that that thermal regimes in some periods of sixteen month long cycle of raspberry have a greater impact on yields than the thermal regimes in other periods of the cycle. The most important for raspberry yield are temperature conditions in July and November in the first year, and in February and April in the second year of the cycle. Parameter that gives the evaluation of favor ability of thermal regime is defined using average temperatures for these crucial months. Derived parameter can be used to predict raspberry yield as early as the beginning of May.U ovom radu određen je metod za procenu visine prinosa maline u ariljskom malinogorju na osnovu karakteristika toplotnog režima u šestnaestomesečnom periodu rasta i razvića serije izadanaka koji ostvaruju taj prinos. Na osnovu predložene ocene povoljnosti toplotnog režima, već početkom maja može se dati prognoza o visini prinosa maline

Global warming impact on climate change in Serbia for the period 1961-2100

Serbia is situated at Balkan Peninsula, and currently majority of the territory is under warm temperate fully humid climate type with warm summers (Cfb type, according to Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification). Observed changes in climate conditions since 1961 until present time show significant increase in temperature change and change in precipitation patterns. Disturbances in heat conditions, which are recorded to affect human health, agricultural production and forest ecosystem, are priority in climate change analysis and application in adaptation planning. Future change analysis show accelerated increase of temperature by the end of the 21st century, which proves the needs for immediate measures for mitigation of negative impacts. Temperature increase averaged over the territory of Serbia is 1.2 degrees C for the period 1996-2015 with respect to the period 1961-1980, with highest increase of maximum daily temperature during the summer season, 2.2 degrees C. Using high resolution multi-model ensemble approach for analysis of the future changes with respect to the base period 1986-2005, in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (ARS), it is estimated that temperature may increase by 1.9 degrees C according to Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and by 4.4 degrees C according to RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Spatial distribution of temperature increase, intensification of high precipitation events and decrease of summer precipitation, show intrusion of subtropical climate over the Serbia and increase of high temperature and high precipitation risks. Results presented in this paper, using high-resolution multi-model ensemble approach, provide climate change information for short term to long term planning in different sectors of economy and preservation of human health and environment

Novi pravci istraživanja u fiziologiji i ekologiji voćaka

New discoveries in all fields of physiology and ecology of fruits reveal high complexity but also inevitable interrelation with other scientific branches and, particularly current, new biotechnologies. Acquisition of new knowledge within the comprehensive and very complex field of fruit physiology shall be presented through the following chapters: new biotechnologies in fruit growing; mineral fertilization - with emphasis on the foliar fertilization; stress physiology; new aspects of fruit pollination and fertilization; heat regime as a factor of phenological dynamics, cropping and fruit zoning.Nova otkrića u svim oblastima fiziologije i ekologije voćaka pokazuju svu kompleksnost, ali i nezaobilaznu interakciju sa dragim naučnim granama i posebno aktuelnim, novim bio-tehnologijama. Ta nova saznanja u obimnoj i veoma složenoj oblasti kakva je fiziologija voćaka biće prezentovana kroz sledeća poglavlja: nove bio-tehnologije u voćarstvu; mineralna ishrana - sa osvrtom na folijama ishranu; fiziologija stresa; novi aspekti oplođenja voćaka i; toplotni režim kao činilac fenološke dinamike, rodnosti i prostornog zoniranja voćaka

Uticaj sive protivgradne mreže na kvalitet ploda borovnice (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) sorte "Bluecrop"

The main focus of our study was to investigate effects of the modified microclimate under a grey hail protection net (HPN) on biometrical fruit characteristics (fruit weight, index of fruit shape, and seed number per fruit) and nutritional value (soluble solid content - SSC, titratable acidity - TA, total anthocyanins - TACY, total phenolics - TPH and total antioxidant capacity - TAC) of the 'Bluecrop' highbush blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.). The study was conducted in the 'Bluecrop' highbush blueberry plantation located in Mladenovac (Serbia) during two consecutive years (2013, 2014). The orchard was established using two-year-old nursery trees in spring 2011, at a planting density of 3,300 bushes per ha. The grey polyethylene net (SILVERLUX®, Helios Group, Lurano, Italy) with a Leno wave structure and a mesh size of 2.8 x 8 mm was used. During the research period, light intensity was measured weekly at 12.00 hr using a digital lux-meter 'Peak teck' PT-5025 (Germany). Air temperature and relative humidity within the canopy were recorded using climate dataloggers (type DT-171, Shenzhen Flus Technology Co., Ltd, China) both under HPN and in the open field (OF). Twelve readings per treatment were taken at 2-hour intervals every day in each season. In both years of observation, light was reduced by 5-20% under HPN, whereby daily maximum temperature was 2.4°C lower causing 4% higher daily minimum relative air humidity than in OF. 'Bluecrop' had significantly higher average fruit weights under HPN ranging from 1.93 g (2013) to 1.86 g (2014) in comparison to those observed in OF. The SSC did not differ between the treatments in 2014, whereas a significantly higher mean value was registered in the fruits harvested under HPN (12.8%) compared to those from OF in 2013. The mean TA was higher under HPN in 2014 (0.57%), whereas in 2013 a significantly higher TA content was found in OF (0.87%). HPN showed a positive effect on the TPH content (7.12 mg GA/g FW), but an almost 2-fold higher value was registered in 2013. Similar to this, TAC was 2.5-fold higher in 2013, without a significant effect of HPN in both experimental years.U ovom radu su ispitivani efekti izmenjene mikroklime pod sivom protivgradnom mrežom (PGM) na fizičke osobine ploda (masa ploda, indeks oblika ploda i broj semenki u plodu) i nutritivnu vrednost (sadržaj rastvorljive suve materije - RSM, ukupnih kiselina i ukupnih fenola, kao i ukupni antioksidativni kapacitet ploda) sorte borovnice "Bluecrop" (Vaccinium corymbosum L.). Ispitivanja su izvedena u periodu 2013-2014. godina, u zasadu borovnice koji se nalazi u blizini Mladenovca. Zasad je podignut u proleće 2011. godine sa trogodišnjim sadnicama i gustinom sadnje od 3.300 žbunova po ha. Primenjena je siva PGM (SILVERLUX®, Helios Group, Lurano, Italy), težine 48 g/m2, sa veličinom otvora 2,8 x 8 mm. Tokom perioda ispitivanja, intenzitet svetlosti je meren jedanput nedeljno u 12 h korišćenjem luks metra "Peak teck" PT-5025 (Germany). Temperatura i relativna vlažnost vazduha su merene uređajem za evidentiranje podataka (engl. data logger, DT-171, Shenzhen Flus Technology Co., Ltd, China) na svaka 2 h pod PGM i na otvorenom polju (kontrolni tretman) od početka cvetanja do kraja zrenja borovnice u obe ispitivane godine. Intenzitet svetlosti pod PGM je bio u proseku smanjen za 5-20% u obe eksperimentalne godine. Dnevne maksimalne temperature bile su za 2,4 oC niže pod PGM uslovljavajući za 4% višu minimalnu dnevnu relativnu vlažnost vazduha u poređenju sa otvorenim poljem. Značajno veća prosečna vrednost mase ploda kod ispitivane sorte borovnice registrovana je pod PGM u poređenju sa otvorenim poljem, i kretala se od 1,93 g (2013) do 1,86 g (2014). Sadržaj RSM se nije značajno razlikovao između tretmana u 2014. godini, dok je u 2013. godini značajno povećanje registrovano u plodovima koji su ubrani pod PGM (12,8%) u poređenju sa otvorenim poljem (11,6%). Prosečna vrednost sadržaja ukupnih kiselina je bila veća pod PGM u 2014. godini (0,57%), dok je u 2013. godini značajno veći sadržaj pronađen u plodovima ubranim na otvorenom polju (0,87%). PGM je ispoljila pozitivan efekat na sadržaj ukupnih fenola (7,12 mg galne kis. g-1sv.m.pl.), međutim skoro dva puta viša vrednost je bila registrovana u 2013. godini. Slično sadržaju ukupnih fenola, ukupni antioksidativni kapacitet ploda je bio za 2,5 puta veći u 2013. godini, bez značajnog uticaja PGM u obe ispitivane godine

Implementation of climate change science in viticulture sustainable development planning in Serbia

Growing interest in Serbia in adaptation of viticulture to climate change emerged from a recorded positive impact of summer increased draught on domestic wine quality. Another motivation is that viticulture has been recognized as one of the fastest developing agricultural sectors in Serbia and, to contain its growing potential, it is crucial to provide basis for its future sustainable development. Prioritization and implementation of adaptation measures in practice require reliable assessment of climate projections. For climate change impact assessment is used high resolution multi-model ensemble of nine regional climate models simulations, bias corrected, with two most probable future scenarios of GHG emissions RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for the period 2016-2100. Analysis has been done for the near future, mid-century and end of the century periods. The periods are defined according to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, which enables comparison of climate change impacts with a wider region, and preferably motivate future international collaboration and knowledge exchange

Testiranje osetljivosti seme za parametrizaciju površinskih procesa (LAPS)

The sensitivity analysis of LAPS presented in this paper is undertaken to identify those vegetation parameters and input data which, when modified, produce the greatest changes in values of the simulated surface fluxes. A sensitivity study is carried out through a series of one-dimensional simulations for a maize field at the experimental site De Sinderhoeve (The Netherlands). The effect of each input vegetation parameter and initial condition on the surface energy fluxes is independently examined. Its reference value is moved over a range of ±75% and relative variation of latent and sensible heat flux is calculated. Obtained results are confirmed by simple statistical analysis. The values of the average surface fluxes show the greatest sensitivity to the soil moisture initialization, minimal stomatal resistance, fractional area of the ground covered by the vegetation, leaf area density, and the ground roughness length. Changes in values of input parameters and initial conditions cause greater relative variation of the sensible heat than of the latent heat flux.U ovom radu testirana je šema LAPS na promenu vrednosti morfoloških, fizioloških i fizickih ulaznih parametara, kao i osetljivost šeme na početne vrednosti promenjivih. Korišćenjem podataka sa oglednog polja De Sinderhoeve (Holandija) pokazano je da fluksevi latentne i osetne toplote najviše zavise od početne vrednosti sadržaja vlage u zemljištu, minimalnog otpora stoma, prekrivenosti tla vegetacijom i parametra hrapavosti. Fluks osetne toplote se pokazao kao osetljiviji na promene vrednosti ulaznih parametara i početnih uslova u odnosu na fluks latentne toplote. Dobijeni rezultati su veoma značajni za odredivanje neophodne tačnosti ulaznih veličina i omogućavaju sclektivni pristup dobijanju što tačnijeg seta ulaznih podataka