Tourism income and economic growth in Greece: Empirical evidence from their cyclical components

This paper examines the relationship between the cyclical components of Greek GDP and international tourism income for Greece for the period 1976–2004. Using spectral analysis the authors find that cyclical fluctuations of GDP have a length of about nine years and that international tourism income has a cycle of about seven years. The volatility of tourism income is more than eight times the volatility of the Greek GDP cycle. VAR analysis shows that the cyclical component of tourism income is significantly influencing the cyclical component of GDP in Greece. The findings support the tourism-led economic growth hypothesis and are of particular interest and importance to policy makers, financial analysts and investors dealing with the Greek tourism industry

Policy rules for inflation targeting

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:3597.9512(1999) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Financial stability and the Fed

This article retraces how financial stability considerations interacted with US monetary policy before and during the Great Recession. Using text-mining techniques, this article innovates by constructing indicators for financial stability sentiment expressed during testimonies of five Federal Reserve Chairs. Including these text-based measures adds explanatory power to Taylor-rule models. Negative financial stability sentiment coincided with a more accommodative monetary policy stance than implied by standard Taylor-rule factors, even during the decades before the Great Recession. These findings are consistent with a preference for monetary policy reacting to financial instability rather than acting pre-emptively to a perceived build-up of risks