Pandemic-related emergency psychiatric presentations for self-harm of children and adolescents in 10 countries (PREP-kids): a retrospective international cohort study

To examine the differences in hospital emergency psychiatric presentations for self-harm of children and adolescents during the covid-19 lockdown in March and April 2020 compared with the same period in 2019. Retrospective cohort study. We used electronic patient records from 23 hospital emergency departments in ten countries grouped into 14 areas. We examined data on 2073 acute hospital presentations by 1795 unique children and adolescents through age 18. We examined the total number of emergency psychiatric hospital presentations and the proportion of children and adolescents presenting with severe self-harm as our two main outcome measures. In addition, we examined sociodemographic and clinical characteristics and clinical management variables for those presenting with self-harm. To compare the number of hospital presentations between 2020 and 2019 a negative binomial model was used. For other variables, individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses were carried out. Emergency psychiatric hospital presentations decreased from 1239 in 2019 to 834 in 2020, incident rate ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.62-0.73; p < 0.001. The proportion of children and adolescents presenting with self-harm increased from 50% in 2019 to 57% in 2020, odds ratio 1.33, 1.07-1.64; p = 0.009 but there was no difference in the proportion presenting with severe self-harm. Within the subpopulation presenting with self-harm the proportion of children and adolescents presenting with emotional disorders increased from 58 to 66%, odds ratio 1.58, 1.06-2.36; p = 0.025. The proportion of children and adolescents admitted to an observation ward also decreased from 13 to 9% in 2020, odds ratio 0.52, 0.28-0.96; p = 0.036. Service planners should consider that, during a lockdown, there are likely to be fewer emergency psychiatric presentations. Many children and adolescents with psychiatric emergencies might not receive any service. A focus on developing intensive community care services with outreach capabilities should be prioritised

Lockdown stringency and paediatric self-harm presentations during COVID-19 pandemic: retrospective cohort study

Background Lockdown during the pandemic has had significant impacts on public mental health. Previous studies suggest an increase in self-harm and suicide in children and adolescents. There has been little research on the roles of stringent lockdown. Aims To investigate the mediating and predictive roles of lockdown policy stringency measures in self-harm and emergency psychiatric presentations. Method This was a retrospective cohort study. We analysed data of 2073 psychiatric emergency presentations of children and adolescents from 23 hospital catchment areas in ten countries, in March to April 2019 and 2020. Results Lockdown measure stringency mediated the reduction in psychiatric emergency presentations (incidence rate ratio of the natural indirect effect [IRRNIE] = 0.41, 95% CI [0.35, 0.48]) and self-harm presentations (IRRNIE = 0.49, 95% CI [0.39, 0.60]) in 2020 compared with 2019. Self-harm presentations among male and looked after children were likely to increase in parallel with lockdown stringency. Self-harm presentations precipitated by social isolation increased with stringency, whereas school pressure and rows with a friend became less likely precipitants. Children from more deprived neighbourhoods were less likely to present to emergency departments when lockdown became more stringent, Conclusions Lockdown may produce differential effects among children and adolescents who self-harm. Development in community or remote mental health services is crucial to offset potential barriers to access to emergency psychiatric care, especially for the most deprived youths. Governments should aim to reduce unnecessary fear of help-seeking and keep lockdown as short as possible. Underlying mediation mechanisms of stringent measures and potential psychosocial inequalities warrant further research

Risk analysis of the copula dependent aggregate discounted claims with Weibull inter-arrival time

We model the recursive moments of aggregate discounted claims, assuming the inter-claim arrival time follows a Weibull distribution to accommodate overdispersed and underdispersed data set. We use a copula to represent the dependence structure between the inter-claim arrival time and its subsequent claim amount. We then use the Laplace inversion via the Gaver-Stehfest algorithm to solve numerically the first and second moments, which takes the form of a Volterra integral equation (VIE). We compute the average and variance of the aggregate discounted claims under the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) copula and conduct a sensitivity analysis under various Weibull inter-claim parameters and claim-size parameters. The comparison between the equidispersed, overdispersed and underdispersed counting processes shows that when claims arrive at times that vary more than is expected, insured lives can expect to pay higher premium, and vice versa for the case of claims arriving at times that vary less than expected. Upon comparing the Weibull risk process with an equivalent Poisson process, we also found that copulas with a wider range of dependency parameter such as the Frank and Heavy Right Tail (HRT), have a greater impact on the value of moments as opposed to modeling under FGM copula with weak dependence structure