The production of national scale models for natural geohazards in Great Britain

Although Great Britain (GB), is untroubled by large-magnitude earthquakes or tsunamis, there is a growing financial and health threat from geohazards affecting both people and property (principally from flooding, shrink-swell clays, landslides, coastal erosion, radon and soluble rocks). This is both in terms of direct costs for remediation and indirectly from higher insurance premiums. For example, the Association of British Insurers reported that the 2007 summer floods cost Britain approximately £3billion; a figure which is predicted to triple every decade due to the increasing value of assets and potential increase in flood occurrence due to environmental change. Remediation from damage caused by shrink-swell clays alone is estimated to cost the insurance industry an average of over £300 million per year an amount that will inevitably increase given current predictions for future climate it is therefore essential that we are able to quantify and strategically assess the occurrence of geohazards in GB as a whole. This will enable us to understand their relationship to critical infrastructure (hospitals, utilities and major transportation routes), industry and major urban centres and provide an understanding of the environmental impacts that an increase in any one of these geohazards might have on, the lives of the British people, for example, flooding and associated landslides can affect the mobilisation of confined contaminants and subsequently the character and use of available land in the future. Since 2002 the British Geological Survey (BGS) has been developing national-scale models of natural geohazards in GB for just this purpose. These include, to date, landslides, shrink-swell, soluble rocks, compressible and collapsible deposits, groundwater flooding, geological indicators of flooding, radon potential, potentially harmful elements in soil, and mining hazards. The models have been created using a combination of expert knowledge (from both within BGS and from outside bodies such as the Health Protection Agency), national databases (which contain data collected over the past 175 years), multi-criteria analysis within Geographical information systems and a flexible rule–based approach for each individual geohazard. By using GIS in this way, the distribution and degree of geohazards has been modelled across the whole of Britain. This approach also allows for many assessments to be updated automatically following a revision of the geological mapping, an improved understanding of the geohazard process or the inclusion of refinements based on local knowledge of an individual area or the availability of new data e.g. new radon measurements, and soil geochemical data etc. A further advantage of such a system is that there is a fully auditable trail leading to the final classification of each geohazard. In this paper we will provide an overview of the methods and best practice used to develop these national datasets. The most significant development necessary for the production of these national hazard datasets was the development and release in 2001 of the 1:50 000 scale digital geological map of GB (DiGMapGB). With the development of the OneGeology Europe project (www.onegeology.org) and the seamless digital geological map for Europe it is likely that similar datasets could be developed for the whole of Europe. We will look briefly at the possibilities for using the techniques and methodologies described in this presentation at a European level

Flooding and subsidence in the Thames Gateway : impact on insurance loss potential

In the UK, household buildings insurance generally covers loss and damage to the insured property from a range of natural and human perils, including windstorm, flood, subsidence, theft, accidental fire and winter freeze. Consequently, insurers require a reasoned view on the likely scale of losses that they may face to assist in strategic planning, reinsurance structuring, regulatory returns and general risk management. The UK summer 2007 flood events not only provided a clear indication of the scale of potential losses that the industry could face from an individual event, with £3 billion in claims, but also identified a need for insurers and reinsurers to better understand how events may correlate in time and space, and how to most effectively use the computational models of extreme events that are commonly applied to reflect these correlations. In addition to the potential for temporal clustering of events such as windstorms and floods, there is a possibility that seemingly uncorrelated natural perils, such as floods and subsidence, may impact an insurer’s portfolio. Where aggregations of large numbers of new properties are planned, such as in the Thames Gateway, consideration of the potential future risk of aggregate losses due to the combination of perils such as subsidence and flood is increasingly important within the insurance company’s strategic risk management process. Whilst perils such as subsidence and flooding are generally considered independent within risk modelling, the potential for one event to influence the magnitude and likelihood of the other should be taken into account when determining risk level. In addition, the impact of correlated, but distinctive, loss causing events on particular property types may be significant, particularly if a specific property is designed to protect against one peril but is potentially susceptible to another. We suggest that flood events can lead to increased subsidence risk due to the weight of additional water and sediment, or rehydration of sediment under flood water. The latter mechanism may be particularly critical on sites where Holocene sediments are currently protected from flooding and are no longer subsiding. Holocene deposits tend to compress, either under their own weight or under a superimposed load such as made ground, built structures or flood water. If protected dry sediments become flooded in the future, subsidence would be expected to resume. This research project aims to investigate the correlation between flood hazards and subsidence hazards and the effect that these two sources of risk will have on insurance losses in the Thames Gateway. In particular, the research will explore the potential hydrological and geophysical drivers and links between flood and subsidence events within the Thames Gateway, assessing the potential for significant event occurrence within the timescales relevant to insurers. In the first part of the project we have identified flood risk areas within the Thames Gateway development zone which have a high risk of flooding and may be affected by renewed or increased subsidence. This has been achieved through the use of national and local-scale 2D and 3D geo-environmental information such as the Geosure dataset (e.g. swell-shrink, collapsible and compressible deposits data layers), PSI data, thickness of superficial and artificial land deposits, and flood potential data etc. In the second stage of the project we will investigate the hydrological and geophysical links between flooding and subsidence events on developed sites; quantify the insurance loss potential in the Thames Gateway from correlated flooding and subsidence events; consider how climate change will affect risk to developments in the Thames Gateway in the context of subsidence and flooding; and develop new ways of communicating and visualise correlated flood and subsidence risk to a range of stakeholders, including the insurance industry, planners, policy makers and the general public

Predicting uncertainty and risk in the natural sciences: bridging the gap between academics and industry

The increase in large-scale disasters in recent years, such as the 2007 floods in the UK, has caused disruptions of livelihood, enormous economic losses and increase in fatalities. Losses from natural hazards are only partially derived from the physical event itself but are also caused by society’s vulnerability to it. In the first three months of 2010, an unprecedented US$16 billion in losses occurred from natural hazards caused by events such as the Haiti and Chilean earthquakes, and the European storm Xynthia. This made it the worst ever first quarter for natural hazard losses and left the insurance industry exposed financially to the more loss-prone third and forth quarters. NERC science has a central role to play in the forecasting and mitigation of natural hazards. Research in this area forms the basis for technological solutions to early warning systems, designing mitigation strategies and providing critical information for decision makers to help save lives and avoid economic losses. Understanding uncertainty is essential if reliable forecasting and risk assessments are to be made. However, the quantification and assessment of uncertainty in natural hazards has in general been limited particularly in terms of model limitations and multiplicity. There are several reasons for this; most notably the fragmented nature of natural hazard research which is split both across science areas and between research, risk management and policy. Because of this, each sector has developed its own concepts and language which has acted as a barrier for effective communication and prevented the production of generic methods that have the potential to be used across sectors. It is clear therefore that by bringing the natural hazard community together significant breakthroughs in the visualisation and understanding of risk and uncertainty could be achieved. To accomplish this, this research programme has 4 prime objectives: 1.To improve communication and networking between researchers and risk managers within the financial services sector 2.To provide a platform for the dissemination of information on uncertainty and risk analysis between a range of researchers and practitioners 3.To generate a portfolio of best practice in uncertainty and risk analysis 4.To act as a focal point between the financial sector and natural hazard research in NERC This paper will discuss how the Natural Environmental Research Council, in partnership with other organisations such as TSB, EA and EPSRC etc, is working with academics and industry to bring about a step change in the way that uncertainty and risk assessments are achieved throughout the natural hazard community

The role of geological data in the SMART city agenda

Advances in the use of GIS and 3D modelling software have meant that there is now a greater opportunity to develop geo-environmental information systems for urban development, argues Dr Katherine Royse of BGS. By 2050, 70% of the world’s population will be living in cities. Cities have a major impact on the social and economic development of nations. They consume 75% of the world’s resources. This evolution raises a very important change with regard to the deployment and management of all types of infrastructures within cities. The sustainable development of our cities is of paramount importance if cities are to cope with the impacts of climate change, population growth, congestion and resource demands. One solution to these issues is to make cities smart, which means being connected and integrated with confidence and precision – that means knowing where you, your people, assets, sensors and systems are. Smart isn’t always about technology. It’s about having efficient and effective systems that improve the quality of life for everyone. A city can be defined as ‘smart’ when investments in human and social capital, traditional (transport) and modern (ICT) communication infrastructure fuel sustainable economic development and a high quality of life, with wise management of natural resources, through participatory action and engagement

Making geology relevant for infrastructure and planning

The urban population is projected to rise to 66% in 2050 to 7.6 billion. This has had, and will have, a profound effect on the geological and geomorphological character of the Earth’s shallow geosphere. It is important to know the character and geometries of the geological deposits so that infrastructure is planned sensibly and sustainably, and urban areas can be reused responsibly to ensure that they help facilitate economic and social development. This brings major challenges for our cities, where there is increased pressure on resources, space and services. The geosciences have an important part to play in securing sustainable global cities - they can support urban innovation and city performance, reduce our environmental footprint and ensure greater resilience to natural hazards such as flooding and ground instability. For more than 30 years the British Geological Survey has advanced the geoscientific understanding and 3D characterisation of urban environments, producing multi-themed spatial datasets for geohazards and ground investigation used across the environmental, planning and insurance sectors. The BGS have collaborated with the University of Cambridge to better integrate geological data with landuse and infrastructure to look at the long-term impact on these types of activities at surface and subsurface. A 3D GeoLanduse layer was produced from the geological framework model of London. This vector-based grid means that many soil and rock properties (e.g. foundation conditions, groundwater levels, volume change potential), can be represented alongside landuse statistics and infrastructure type and correlated in the XYZ domain. Focus has been at geothermal potential of the ground surrounding residential basements and the broader correlation between geology, energy consumption and landuse at city scale using principle component analysis and cluster recognition

Keeping it Real : An Evaluation Audit of Five Years of Youth-led Program Evaluation

Youth are increasingly seen as competent in participating in research and program evaluation, two activities previously reserved for adults. This paper is a report of the findings from an evaluation audit of Stand Up! Help Out!, a participatory action after-school youth leadership development program for disadvantaged urban youth that utilized youth evaluations to develop a best practices service model. The youths’ feedback assisted providers in improving services so that youth engagement in the program was 99% (by comparison with national highs of 79%). Here, we describe an important aspect of the process of youth-led program evaluation leading to such high youth engagement: How youth interviewed each other so as to optimize the authenticity of their program evaluations and contributions to program design. Drawing from over five years of program evaluation data collected by youth, the authors report on the youths’ experiences as informants and co-researchers, consider strategies used to help youth best describe their experiences in the program, and describe implications for other settings looking to incorporate youth-led program evaluation. Youth-led program evaluation has considerable promise for helping service providers make programs more meaningful for disadvantaged youth

Restrictive or Liberal Red-Cell Transfusion for Cardiac Surgery.

BACKGROUND The effect of a restrictive versus liberal red-cell transfusion strategy on clinical outcomes in patients undergoing cardiac surgery remains unclear. METHODS In this multicenter, open-label, noninferiority trial, we randomly assigned 5243 adults undergoing cardiac surgery who had a European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) I of 6 or more (on a scale from 0 to 47, with higher scores indicating a higher risk of death after cardiac surgery) to a restrictive red-cell transfusion threshold (transfuse if hemoglobin level was <7.5 g per deciliter, starting from induction of anesthesia) or a liberal red-cell transfusion threshold (transfuse if hemoglobin level was <9.5 g per deciliter in the operating room or intensive care unit [ICU] or was <8.5 g per deciliter in the non-ICU ward). The primary composite outcome was death from any cause, myocardial infarction, stroke, or new-onset renal failure with dialysis by hospital discharge or by day 28, whichever came first. Secondary outcomes included red-cell transfusion and other clinical outcomes. RESULTS The primary outcome occurred in 11.4% of the patients in the restrictive-threshold group, as compared with 12.5% of those in the liberal-threshold group (absolute risk difference, -1.11 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.93 to 0.72; odds ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.76 to 1.07; P<0.001 for noninferiority). Mortality was 3.0% in the restrictive-threshold group and 3.6% in the liberal-threshold group (odds ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.62 to 1.16). Red-cell transfusion occurred in 52.3% of the patients in the restrictive-threshold group, as compared with 72.6% of those in the liberal-threshold group (odds ratio, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.47). There were no significant between-group differences with regard to the other secondary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS In patients undergoing cardiac surgery who were at moderate-to-high risk for death, a restrictive strategy regarding red-cell transfusion was noninferior to a liberal strategy with respect to the composite outcome of death from any cause, myocardial infarction, stroke, or new-onset renal failure with dialysis, with less blood transfused. (Funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and others; TRICS III ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02042898 .)