Butterfly abundance in a warming climate: patterns in space and time are not congruent

We present a model of butterfly abundance on transects in England. The model indicates a significant role for climate, but the direction of association is counter to expectation: butterfly population density is higher on sites with a cooler climate. However, the effect is highly heterogeneous, with one in five species displaying a net positive association. We use this model to project the population-level effects of climate warming for the year 2080, using a medium emissions scenario. The results suggest that most populations and species will decline markedly, but that the total number of butterflies will increase as communities become dominated by a few common species. In particular, Maniola jurtina is predicted to make up nearly half of all butterflies on UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS) transects by 2080. These results contradict the accepted wisdom that most insect populations will grow as the climate becomes warmer. Indeed, our predictions contrast strongly with those derived from inter-annual variation in abundance, emphasizing that we lack a mechanistic understanding about the factors driving butterfly population dynamics over large spatial and temporal scales. Our study underscores the difficulty of predicting future population trends and reveals the naivety of simple space-for-time substitutions, which our projections share with species distribution modelling

A Neo-Institutional Assessment of Cooperative Evolution: Comparing the Australian Wheat Board and the Fonterra Dairy Group

Agribusiness,

Fifty years of the Biological Records Centre

In this special issue of the Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, we celebrate 50 years of the Biological Records Centre (BRC) but, more importantly, we celebrate the pioneers of BRC and the volunteer recording community. It is inspiring to consider the many individuals who have contributed to the rich legacy of biological recording since the 16th Century. The core activity of BRC has remained unchanged since its foundation in 1964: working in partnership with volunteer recording schemes and societies to collate, manage, disseminate, and interpret species observations (biological records). However, innovative technologies and the development of statistical approaches are taking biological recording in new and exciting directions. The large spatial coverage and increasingly fine-scale spatial precision of biological records enable ecologists to examine large-scale processes that would be impossible to address without the contribution of voluntary recorders

Late Planting Decisions with Crop Insurance: Decision Guidelines for Michigan Farmers in Spring 2011

Michigan has had unusually wet planting conditions in 2011, leading to substantial acreage that has not been planted at this late date. Farmers who purchased crop insurance have many options available to them. This paper addresses the major crop insurance decisions that farmers will face during the next 30 days.crop insurance, prevented planting, risk management, farm management, corn returns, soybean returns, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty,

Competing Magnetic Fluctuations in Iron Pnictide Superconductors: Role of Ferromagnetic Spin Correlations Revealed by NMR

In the iron pnictide superconductors, theoretical calculations have consistently shown enhancements of the static magnetic susceptibility at both the stripe-type antiferromagnetic (AFM) and in-plane ferromagnetic (FM) wavevectors. However, the possible existence of FM fluctuations has not yet been examined from a microscopic point of view. Here, using $^{75}$As NMR data, we provide clear evidence for the existence of FM spin correlations in both the hole- and electron-doped BaFe$_2$As$_2$ families of iron-pnictide superconductors. These FM fluctuations appear to compete with superconductivity and are thus a crucial ingredient to understanding the variability of $T_{\rm c}$ and the shape of the superconducting dome in these and other iron-pnictide families.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. Let

The pitfalls of ecological forecasting

Ecological forecasting is difficult but essential, because reactive management results in corrective actions that are often too late to avert significant environmental damage. Here, we appraise different forecasting methods with a particular focus on the modelling of species populations. We show how simple extrapolation of current trends in state is often inadequate because environmental drivers change in intensity over time and new drivers emerge. However, statistical models, incorporating relationships with drivers, simply offset the prediction problem, requiring us to forecast how the drivers will themselves change over time. Some authors approach this problem by focusing in detail on a single driver, whilst others use ‘storyline’ scenarios, which consider projected changes in a wide range of different drivers. We explain why both approaches are problematic and identify a compromise to model key drivers and interactions along with possible response options to help inform environmental management. We also highlight the crucial role of validation of forecasts using independent data. Although these issues are relevant for all types of ecological forecasting, we provide examples based on forecasts for populations of UK butterflies. We show how a high goodness-of-fit for models used to calibrate data is not sufficient for good forecasting. Long-term biological recording schemes rather than experiments will often provide data for ecological forecasting and validation because these schemes allow capture of landscape-scale land-use effects and their interactions with other drivers