The impact of resolution on the adjustment and decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a coupled climate model

Variations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) exert an important influence on climate, particularly on decadal time scales. Simulation of the MOC in coupled climate models is compromised, to a degree that is unknown, by their lack of fidelity in resolving some of the key processes involved. There is an overarching need to increase the resolution and fidelity of climate models, but also to assess how increases in resolution influence the simulation of key phenomena such as the MOC. In this study we investigate the impact of significantly increasing the (ocean and atmosphere) resolution of a coupled climate model on the simulation of MOC variability by comparing high and low resolution versions of the same model. In both versions, decadal variability of the MOC is closely linked to density anomalies that propagate from the Labrador Sea southward along the deep western boundary. We demonstrate that the MOC adjustment proceeds more rapidly in the higher resolution model due the increased speed of western boundary waves. However, the response of the Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) to MOC variations is relatively robust - in pattern if not in magnitude - across the two resolutions. The MOC also excites a coupled ocean-atmosphere response in the tropical Atlantic in both model versions. In the higher resolution model, but not the lower resolution model, there is evidence of a significant response in the extratropical atmosphere over the North Atlantic 6 years after a maximum in the MOC. In both models there is evidence of a weak negative feedback on deep density anomalies in the Labrador Sea, and hence on the MOC (with a time scale of approximately ten years). Our results highlight the need for further work to understand the decadal variability of the MOC and its simulation in climate models

A survey of nearby galaxies for CO

We have made a survey of the nuclei of 81 galaxies for the 1-) line of CO. 38 of the galaxies are from a complete sample with recession velocity ≦400 km s-1 and 21-cm line strength ≧10-27 Wm-2, and the remainder represent nearby galaxies with weaker or no HI, early-type galaxies (E/SO/Sa) with detected HI and active/infrared galaxies. Galaxies with strong CO lines like M82, NGC253 and IC342 are exceedingly rare: all the galaxies we observed are weaker than 0/2K except the irregular galaxy DDO133 with T*A=0.22K. We have new, confirmed detections of two other irregular galaxies, IC10 and Pegasus, at a weaker level, and unconfirmed detections of the irregular NGC3109 and the nearest Type I Seyfert galaxy NGC4051. We have confirmed the existence of CO in the nucleus of NGC6946 and obtained spectra of new positions in M82 and NGC253

ESD ideas: a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WGI to the assessment and communication of climate change risks

The purpose of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is to provide policy-relevant assessments of the scientific evidence about climate change. Policymaking necessarily involves risk assessments, so it is important that IPCC reports are designed accordingly. This paper proposes a specific idea, illustrated with examples, to improve the contribution of IPCC Working Group I to informing climate risk assessments

Modification and Assessment of the Bedside Pediatric Early Warning Score in the Pediatric Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplant Population

OBJECTIVES: To determine the validity of the Bedside Pediatric Early Warning Score system in the hematopoietic cell transplant population, and to determine if the addition of weight gain further strengthens the association with need for PICU admission. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of pediatric allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant patients from 2009 to 2016. Daily Pediatric Early Warning Score and weights were collected during hospitalization. Logistic regression was used to identify associations between maximum Pediatric Early Warning Score or Pediatric Early Warning Score plus weight gain and the need for PICU intervention. The primary outcome was need for PICU intervention; secondary outcomes included mortality and intubation. SETTING: A large quaternary free-standing children's hospital. PATIENTS: One-hundred two pediatric allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant recipients. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Of the 102 hematopoietic cell transplant patients included in the study, 29 were admitted to the PICU. The median peak Pediatric Early Warning Score was 11 (interquartile range, 8-13) in the PICU admission cohort, compared with 4 (interquartile range, 3-5) in the cohort without a PICU admission (p < 0.0001). Pediatric Early Warning Score greater than or equal to 8 had a sensitivity of 76% and a specificity of 90%. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.83. There was a high negative predictive value at this Pediatric Early Warning Score of 90%. When Pediatric Early Warning Score greater than or equal to 8 and weight gain greater than or equal to 7% were compared together, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve increased to 0.88. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, a Pediatric Early Warning Score greater than or equal to 8 was associated with PICU admission, having a moderately high sensitivity and high specificity. This study adds to literature supporting Pediatric Early Warning Score monitoring for hematopoietic cell transplant patients. Combining weight gain with Pediatric Early Warning Score improved the discriminative ability of the model to predict the need for critical care, suggesting that incorporation of weight gain into Pediatric Early Warning Score may be beneficial for monitoring of hematopoietic cell transplant patients