Application of pattern recognition algorithm in the seismic belts of Indian convergent plate margin - CN algorithm

The earthquake catalogue from 1964 to August 1991 is used to identify the times of increased probabilities (TIPs) of the earthquake mainshocks of magnitudes greater than or equal to 6.4 and are associated with the Indian convergent plate margins, in retrospect. In Pakistan and Indo-Burma regions, the analysis was repeated for magnitude threshold 6.2 and 7.0 respectively. All the earthquakes (except one in the Hindukush region and one in Indo-Burmese region) in Pakistan, Hindukush-Pamir, Himalaya and Indo-Burmese regions were preceded by the special activation and hence were predicted. Approximately 23 ± 10% of the total time (1970 to August 1991) is occupied by the TIPs in all the regions. The reasons for failure to predict the two earthquakes in these regions are discussed. Our analysis gives a better picture of the regionalization and the size of the space-time volume for the preparation of an earthquake. The high success ratio of the algorithm proves that it can be applied in this territory for further prediction in the real time, without any significant changes in its parameters

Intermediate-term prediction of occurrence times of strong earthquakes

Pattern recognition procedures for infrequent events are adapted to the problem of identifying patterns of clustering of small- and intermediate-scale seismicity before large earthquakes. Identification procedures derived from analysis of large California and Nevada earthquakes yield a high success rate when applied to other parts of the world

Earthquake's swarms as forerunners of strong earthquakes in Italy

SUMMARY - Most of strong earthquakes in Italy seem to be preceded byanomalous swarms of weaker shocks. Similiar precursor was described byProzoroff and al (1972) for Central Asia. Most often the swarms occur nearthe same lineament, as the strong earthquake which follow them

On dynamics of seismicity simulated by the models of blocks-and-faults systems

The major results obtained by numerical simulation of block structure dynamics are juxtaposed and analysed: the possibilities to reconstruct tectonic driving forces from territorial distribution of seismicity, clustering of earthquakes in the model, and dependence of the occurrence of strong earthquakes on fragmentation of the media, and on rotation of blocks. These results show that modelling of block structure dynamics is a useful tool to study relations between the geometry of faults and block movements and earthquake flow, including premonitory seismicity patterns, to test the existing earthquake prediction algorithms, and to develop new ones

On dynamics of seismicity simulated by the models of blocks-and-faults systems

The major results obtained by numerical simulation of block structure dynamics are juxtaposed and analysed: the possibilities to reconstruct tectonic driving forces from territorial distribution of seismicity, clustering of earthquakes in the model, and dependence of the occurrence of strong earthquakes on fragmentation of the media, and on rotation of blocks. These results show that modelling of block structure dynamics is a useful tool to study relations between the geometry of faults and block movements and earthquake flow, including premonitory seismicity patterns, to test the existing earthquake prediction algorithms, and to develop new ones

Analysis and definition of magnitude selection criteria for NEIC (PDE) data, oriented to the compilation of a homogeneous updated catalogue for CN monitoring in Italy

Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Biblioteca Centrale - P.le Aldo Moro, 7, Rome / CNR - Consiglio Nazionale delle RichercheSIGLEITItal