Labor Policy and the Great Recession: An Economist\u27s Perspective

Labor and Employment Law Under the Obama Administration: A Time for Hope and Change? Symposium held November 12-13, 2010, Indiana University Maurer School of Law, Bloomington, Indiana

Have Lesser Scaup, Aythya affinis, Reproductive Rates Declined in Parkland Manitoba?

Long-term surveys indicate that the scaup populations have declined over the past 20 years, and that this is probably the result of decreases in Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) rather than Greater Scaup (Aythya marila) numbers. To identify factors possibly related to the decline, we estimated demographic parameters for a local population of Lesser Scaup at Erickson, Manitoba, that was well studied before declines occurred and compared these estimates to historic rates. On average, nests were initiated later than in the past, and recent estimates of nesting success and duckling survival were lower than historical estimates. Breeding-season survival of adult females was estimated as 72.6%, with most (83%) mortality occurring during nesting. Current estimates of demographic rates at Erickson are too low to maintain a stable local population, and suppressed reproductive rates might be the proximate cause of the local population decline

Montana’s New State-Wide Bighorn Sheep Research Initiative

Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) conservation and management in Montana has been, and continues to be, a challenge. The majority of Montana’s bighorn sheep populations are patchily distributed across the state and are relatively small, with many populations static or periodically experiencing dramatic declines despite the fact that adequate habitat seems to be abundant. Wildlife managers and biologists are routinely making decisions on bighorn sheep population augmentation and restoration, harvest, habitat management, disease prevention and response, and other conservation actions without adequate knowledge of the drivers of demographic processes that inform management of many of Montana’s more successfully restored ungulate species. Field studies of bighorn sheep in Montana have been limited primarily to short-term, master’s thesis projects focused on a specific herd. A 6-yr research program has been designed and funded on the premise that research insights that are broadly applicable for management and conservation are best obtained by addressing the same questions in multiple populations representing differing demographic characteristics, ecological settings, and management histories that capture the range of variation realized by the species of interest. The research program will involve field studies of seven bighorn sheep herds in Montana, with data on each herd collected over a 5-yr period. Herds were selected to capture a wide range of variability in disease outbreak history, habitat types, and herd attributes in an effort to maximize our ability to partition and quantify the potential relative effects of these factors on lamb and adult survival, recruitment, and population dynamics

The Mountain Ungulate Research Initiative: A Collaborative Effort To Advance Understanding Of Bighorn Sheep And Mountain Goat Ecology

Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) and mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) are important components of the faunal assemblage of Montana’s mountainous ecosystems representing high-profile large mammals that garner substantial public interest. While population restoration, augmentation, and introductions have traditionally been the predominant conservation activities associated with these species in Montana, basic ecological research has been limited. A new research initiative has been developed and funded to study bighorn sheep and mountain goat spatial and population ecology in a number of ecological settings within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. The aspiration of the collaborators is to develop a long-term research program that could expand to other populations of these species in Montana if we are successful. Primary objectives of the studies include 1) understanding the ecological interactions between sympatric populations, 2) developing and refining habitat suitability models, 3) documenting spatial dynamics within and among populations and identifying important movement corridors, 4) collecting vital rate data to better understand population dynamics, and 5) investigating potential responses of bighorn sheep and mountain goats to gradual changes in the regional climate. The presentation will describe the collaboration and ongoing efforts to consolidate all available data on bighorn sheep and mountain goats in the GYE. These data are used to describe mountain goat range expansion within the GYE over the past half century and to conduct initial habitat modeling efforts. We will also describe our plans for initiating field studies in the near future

Telemetry Studies of Mountain Ungulates in the Greater Yellowstone Area: A Progress Report

We report on the progress that has been made on initiating long-term telemetry studies of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) and bighorn sheep (Ovis Canadensis) in the GYA to better understand spatial ecology, demography, potential competition, and disease ecology. Six study areas representing a variety of ecological settings have been established throughout the GYA that include areas where bighorn sheep and mountain goats are sympatric as well as where each species exists in the absence of the other. We are employing a novel dual radio collar strategy and have successfully evaluated the use of drop net systems to capture groups of bighorn attracted to bait as an economical alternative to standard helicopter-based single animal capture techniques. Chemical immobilization of bighorn using BAM as an alternative to carfentanil was also tested and evaluated. A break-down Clover trap was designed for ease of transportation via horse for backcountry trapping and summer salt baiting for bighorn sheep and mountain goats was evaluated. We have initiated the first systematic disease sampling of mountain goats in the GYA using the standard protocols employed for bighorn sheep health assessments to evaluate the potential for mountain goats to influence the disease ecology of bighorn sheep in areas where they are sympatric. The research goals, strategies, and methodologies developed, tested, and employed on the collaborative GYA mountain ungulate research program are similar to those proposed for a long-term bighorn sheep research program in Montana

Correlates of Recruitment in Montana Bighorn Sheep Populations: An Initiative to Synthesize Montana Bighorn Sheep Recruitment Data and Gain Biological Insight

Bighorn sheep (Ovis Canadensis) populations in Montana have been strongly affectedby disease outbreaks in recent years, resulting in the death of approximately 1500 bighorns as well as depressed recruitment rates in some affected herds. The ecology of these disease outbreaks is not well understood and there have been several proposals for a state-wide research project addressing disease ecology of bighorns in Montana. Such a project is a large investment and any extra knowledge of the bighorn populations that can be gained from existing data would improve study design and enhance the success of any future research effort. Last year we used management data to index bighorn recruitment rates of 23 bighorn herds in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) and found strong correlations between recruitment and both annual and regional climate patterns. This year we have received funding from Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks to conduct a similar analysis of bighorn recruitment rates across Montana. The planned analysis will investigate potential correlations between bighorn recruitment and climate covariates, similar to the GYA effort, but will also explore additional covariates to capture differences in management strategies, genetics, disease history, migration patterns, and population connectivity among the state’s bighorn sheep populations. The presentation will focus on the goals of our work as well as the advantages of conducting preliminary data analysis prior to implementing large scale research projects

Breeding Season Occupancy of Long-Billed Curlews and Sandhill Cranes in Grazed Habitats at Red Rock Lakes National Wildlife Refuge, Montana

Long-billed curlew (Numenius americanus) and sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) are species of concern at state and federal levels. The concern is largely due to declines in population resulting from loss and degradation of wetland and grassland habitats that have reduced the amount of available breeding habitat for both species. Red Rock Lakes National Wildlife Refuge (RRLNWR) in southwestern Montana encompasses one of the largest wetland complexes in the Intermountain West, providing important breeding habitat for cranes and curlews in the region. We explored landscape- and plot-scale drivers of curlew and crane breeding-season occupancy (?) in grazed grassland and wet meadow habitats at RRLNWR. Distance to palustrine emergent marsh was the best landscape-scale predictor of curlew and crane occupancy. Mean breeding season occupancy of curlews across sites was 0.68 (95% CI = 0.39–0.87) and increased with distance from emergent marsh, ranging from 0.37 (95% CI = 0.24–0.52) to 0.80 (95% CI = 0.56–0.93) as distance to emergent marsh went from 64 m to 629 m. Conversely, crane mean breeding season occupancy was 0.38 (95% CI = 0.17–0.64) and decreased as distance from emergent marsh increased, ranging from 0.58 (95% CI = 0.27–0.58) to 0.28 (95% CI = 0.11–0.56) as distance to emergent marsh went from 64 m to 629 m. Plot-scale vegetation characteristics available from a reduced data set indicated curlew occupancy was positively related to the ratio of vegetation 5–15 cm tall to vegetation >15cm (??    = 4.92, SE = 2.53)

Modelización de datos de supervivencia en nidos: estudio comparativo de varios métodos desarrollados recientemente que pueden implementarse en MARK y SAS

Estimating nest success and evaluating factors potentially related to the survival rates of nests are key aspects of many studies of avian populations. A strong interest in nest success has led to a rich literature detailing a variety of estimation methods for this vital rate. In recent years, modeling approaches have undergone especially rapid development. Despite these advances, most researchers still employ Mayfield’s ad–hoc method (Mayfield, 1961) or, in some cases, the maximum–likelihood estimator of Johnson (1979) and Bart & Robson (1982). Such methods permit analyses of stratified data but do not allow for more complex and realistic models of nest survival rate that include covariates that vary by individual, nest age, time, etc. and that may be continuous or categorical. Methods that allow researchers to rigorously assess the importance of a variety of biological factors that might affect nest survival rates can now be readily implemented in Program MARK and in SAS’s Proc GENMOD and Proc NLMIXED. Accordingly, use of Mayfield’s estimator without first evaluating the need for more complex models of nest survival rate cannot be justified. With the goal of increasing the use of more flexible methods, we first describe the likelihood used for these models and then consider the question of what the effective sample size is for computation of AICc. Next, we consider the advantages and disadvantages of these different programs in terms of ease of data input and model construction; utility/flexibility of generated estimates and predictions; ease of model selection; and ability to estimate variance components. An example data set is then analyzed using both MARK and SAS to demonstrate implementation of the methods with various models that contain nest–, group– (or block–), and time–specific covariates. Finally, we discuss improvements that would, if they became available, promote a better general understanding of nest survival rates.La estimación del éxito de nidificación y la evaluación de los factores potencialmente relacionados con las tasas de supervivencia de los mismos son aspectos clave de numerosos estudios sobre poblaciones de aves. El gran interés por el éxito de nidificación se ha traducido en una rica literatura que detalla varios métodos de estimación de esta tasa vital. En los últimos años, los enfoques de modelización han experimentado un rápido desarrollo. No obstante, pese a estos avances, la mayoría de los investigadores siguen empleando el método ad–hoc de Mayfield (Mayfield, 1961) o, en algunos casos, el estimador de probabilidad máxima de Johnson (1979) y Bart & Robson (1982). Tales métodos permiten el análisis de datos estratificados, pero, en cambio, no permiten modelos más complejos y realistas de la tasa de supervivencia en nidos cuando se incluyen covariantes que cambian según el individuo, la edad del nido, el tiempo, etc., y que pueden ser continuas o categóricas. Actualmente, con la ayuda de Program MARK, así como de Proc GENMOD y Proc NLMIXED de SAS, es posible implementar métodos que permiten a los investigadores evaluar rigurosamente la importancia de varios factores biológicos susceptibles de incidir en las tasas de supervivencia en nidos. Por consiguiente, no está justificada la utilización del estimador de Mayfield sin antes evaluar la necesidad de emplear modelos más complejos para determinar la tasa de supervivencia en nidos. Con objeto de incrementar el empleo de métodos más flexibles, primero describimos la probabilidad empleada para estos modelos, para posteriormente tomar en consideración cuál es el tamaño de muestra eficaz para el cálculo de AICc. Seguidamente, tomamos en consideración las ventajas y desventajas de estos programas por lo que respecta a la facilidad de introducción de datos y de construcción de modelos, la utilidad/flexibilidad de las estimaciones y predicciones generadas, la facilidad de la selección de modelos y la capacidad para estimar los componentes de la varianza. A continuación, analizamos un conjunto de datos de ejemplo utilizando los programas MARK y SAS con objeto de demostrar la implementación de los métodos con varios modelos que contienen nido–, grupo– (o bloque–), y covariantes específicas al tiempo. Por último, comentamos varias mejoras que, si estuvieran disponibles, fomentarían una mejor comprensión general de las tasas de supervivencia en nidos

Meta-Analysis of Relationships between Human Offtake, Total Mortality and Population Dynamics of Gray Wolves (Canis lupus)

Following the growth and geographic expansion of wolf (Canis lupus) populations reintroduced to Yellowstone National Park and central Idaho in 1995–1996, Rocky Mountain wolves were removed from the endangered species list in May 2009. Idaho and Montana immediately established hunting seasons with quotas equaling 20% of the regional wolf population. Combining hunting with predator control, 37.1% of Montana and Idaho wolves were killed in the year of delisting. Hunting and predator control are well-established methods to broaden societal acceptance of large carnivores, but it is unprecedented for a species to move so rapidly from protection under the Endangered Species Act to heavy direct harvest, and it is important to use all available data to assess the likely consequences of these changes in policy. For wolves, it is widely argued that human offtake has little effect on total mortality rates, so that a harvest of 28–50% per year can be sustained. Using previously published data from 21 North American wolf populations, we related total annual mortality and population growth to annual human offtake. Contrary to current conventional wisdom, there was a strong association between human offtake and total mortality rates across North American wolf populations. Human offtake was associated with a strongly additive or super-additive increase in total mortality. Population growth declined as human offtake increased, even at low rates of offtake. Finally, wolf populations declined with harvests substantially lower than the thresholds identified in current state and federal policies. These results should help to inform management of Rocky Mountain wolves

Occupancy Dynamics, Roost Habitat and Prey of Mexican Spotted Owls in Utah

Mexican spotted owls (Strix occidentalis lucida) occupy canyon habitats that have received less attention than owls in forested environments, and yet canyon environments represent a significant portion of the owl’s range. In Utah, the owls occupy narrow and steep-walled canyons that attract high levels of human use, including climbing and hiking through nest areas, and human use levels have strongly increased in the canyons, for example, permits for access to popular climbs and hikes increased over 1700% during 1998 to 2002 in Zion National Park. To examine potential effects of recreation on the owls, we studied temporal variability of detection, occupancy, local extinction, and colonization probabilities. Our study sites included several National Parks and BLM resource areas. Our primary objective was to examine effects of recreation on site occupancy dynamics. We also investigated reproductive success, roost habitat, and prey selection. The analysis of detection rate showed strong support for constant detection probability of 89% for spotted owls among 47 sites. For both single owls and owl pairs we estimated initial occupancy rate of 83% for mesic sites and 43% for relatively xeric sites. We found that recreation was not associated with occupancy, detection, nor extinction and recolonization probabilities. Although reproductive rates varied by year, recreation was not negatively associated with production of fledgling owls per site. We also studied prey selection and roost habitat in the canyon environments. Roosts were placed on steep-walled cliffs with greater number of perches than adjacent habitats, and roosts possessed relatively high overhead tree cover, cool daytime temperatures, and thus a suitable thermal environment in the arid canyons. Pellets collected at roosts sites, upon dissection, indicated that rodents were primary prey, but also included birds, bats, and various anthropods. Woodrats (Neotoma sp.) dominated the prey frequency and biomass