Climatic Disasters and armed intrastate conflict : A quantitative analysis assessing how abrupt hydrometeorological disasters affect the risk of conflict termination, covering the years 1985 to 2007

This thesis covers the relatively unstudied connection between hydrometeorological disasters and the duration of armed intrastate conflict, and aims to discover how abrupt climate changes affect the prospects for conflict termination. By performing several Weibulldistributed survival models, it specifically examines the effects of the rapid-onset climatic disasters floods, windstorms, waves, and extreme temperatures on the risk of conflict termination. The central hypothesis leans on a number of theoretical arguments holding that disasters have the capacity to act as catalysts for peace. The results of the analysis do however indicate that disasters reduce the risk of conflict termination, but with the caveat that this effect might reverse with time. With somewhat indistinct empirical results, the thesis falls in line with existing research on the topic arguing that closer, more disaggregated analyses of the mechanisms at play between climatic disasters and conflict dynamics are in demand

Coping with calamity: Natural disasters, armed conflict and development aid

Naturkatastrofer, væpnet konflikt og bistand: Klimaendringene gjør at vi kan forvente både mer intenst og til dels hyppigere forekomst av ekstremvær i fremtiden. Mange av landene som kommer til å bli hardest rammet av dette, er ekstra sårbare for effektene av naturkatastrofer fordi de allerede gjennom en årrekke også har vært rammet av væpnet konflikt. Eksisterende forskning har hittil konsentrert seg om hvorvidt et endret klima kan skape nye konflikter, og fokusert mindre på at disse sammenhengene kan være sirkulære. Det betyr at selv om konflikt øker sårbarhet for ekstremvær, vil også ekstremvær påvirke eventuelle pågående konflikter. Økt kunnskap om dette er viktig på veien for å nå FNs bærekraftsmål. I avhandlingen ser jeg nærmere på hva som skjer med pågående konflikter når land i konflikt blir rammet av naturkatastrofer. Mer spesifikt undersøker jeg aktørene i konflikten – både myndigheter og opprørsgrupper – og hvordan deres kapasitet til å føre krig kan blir endret når en naturkatastrofe rammer. Naturkatastrofer kan ta liv, ødelegge infrastruktur og gjøre områder ufremkommelige, men de rammer sjelden likt i alle deler av et land og likt for alle aktører. Avhandlingen benytter presise lokasjonsdata for katastrofer, konflikter og bistandsprosjekter, og undersøker hvordan konfliktaktører blir ulikt rammet avhengig av hvor naturkatastrofen finner sted i forhold til områdene der konflikten utspiller seg. Avhandlingen ser også på hvordan utviklingsbistand, som er et av de viktigste verktøyene vi har i møte med katastrofer og konflikt, kan påvirkes av eksisterende konfliktlinjer. Det er tilfelle dersom fordeling av bistand skjer til fordel for myndighetenes støttespillere og på bekostning av sårbare og ofte ekskluderte grupper. Avhandlingen finner at katastrofer som rammer konfliktområder direkte kan redusere konfliktnivået midlertidig. Dette gjelder spesielt i separatistkonflikter der opprørsgruppene står ansvarlige overfor lokalbefolkningen. I tillegg finner jeg at bistandsprosjekter kan gjøre lokalbefolkningen bedre utstyrt til å takle konsekvensene av ekstremvær. Det forutsetter imidlertid at bistanden når frem til de som trenger den mest, noe som ikke alltid er tilfelle ettersom bistand også fordeles i henhold til politiske konfliktlinjer. Fordi konflikt gjør berørte områder ekstra sårbare for fremtidige klimaendringer, peker funnene i avhandlingen på at konfliktløsning kan være nødvendig for å gjøre utsatte befolkningsgrupper i stand til å takle konsekvensene av et endret klima

Development Aid, Drought, and Coping Capacity

Climate change is a major threat to sustained economic growth and wellbeing in the Global South. To what extent does official development assistance (ODA) strengthen recipient communities’ capacity to cope with climatic extremes? Here, we investigate whether inflow of development aid mitigates adverse health impacts of subsequent drought among children under 5 years of age, drawing on survey data of nearly 140,000 respondents across 16 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in combination with georeferenced data on World Bank-sponsored ODA projects and historical weather statistics. A coarsened exact matching analysis reveals little benefit of development aid on child nutritional status under normal meteorological conditions. However, among children exposed to drought, prior aid allocation is associated with significantly reduced weight loss. While the merit of ODA in facilitating long-term growth remains debated, this study finds consistent indication that multilateral development aid improves recipient communities’ capacity to cope with future drought

Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Afghanistan

Afghanistan is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change: rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and increasingly frequent extreme weather events. Currently, Afghanistan is experiencing its worst drought in 27 years, which, compounded with COVID-19 and the economic contraction that followed the takeover of the government by the Taliban in August 2021, has significantly increased livelihood and food insecurity and contributed to a growing humanitarian emergency. Climate change exacerbates the deteriorating conditions for agriculture-based livelihoods and food insecurity. Conflict and the effects of climate change have increased internal displacement and changed migration patterns. High levels of displacement accentuate food and livelihood insecurity and increase the vulnerability of marginalised groups, including women. The effects of climate change may heighten the risk of more frequent and intense local conflicts over land and water and increase tensions over transboundary resources. Conflict has eroded the resilience of communities and local authorities to adapt to climate change and to deal with the current humanitarian crisis. This creates opportunities for elites to manipulate and profit from land and water disputes, with elevated risks for marginalised groups

Iraq

• Increasing temperatures, decreasing water availability and greater inter-annual variability in rainfall negatively affect agriculture, reduce household income and food availability, and exacerbate livelihood insecurity. Women and girls are disproportionately affected by the adverse effects of climate change, due to pre-existing gender norms and persisting inequalities. • Low agriculture yields and loss of livelihoods contribute to increased urban migration, with urban challenges including the risk of social unrest and protests in host cities. • Armed groups and militias leverage the economic hardships, further exacerbated by the compounding effects of climate change, for recruitment and support. Weak governance increases the opportunities for elite exploitation and corruption, which leads to further marginalization and exclusion that feed grievances and drive instability

Re-imagining African-Nordic relations in a changing global order

Ahead of the 20th Annual African–Nordic Foreign Ministers’ meeting, scheduled for 14 June 2022 in Helsinki, this study considers how turbulence in the international system may affect relations between Africa and the Nordic region (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden). In particular, it examines how the special relationship between these two regions may be affected by changes in the global order, and how it may have to adapt to ensure that the relationship evolves and remains relevant for both regions. The report evaluates the levels and spheres of African–Nordic cooperation and is divided into four parts. First, an overview of African and Nordic positions and priorities is presented. Second, Africa’s strategic partnerships with various countries and regions – China, Europe, India, Russia and Turkey – are explored, in order to compare the Africa–Nordic relationship with these others. Contributors examines how these partnerships are structured, the types of initiatives or activities undertaken to sustain them, and how these partnerships have adapted to today’s global order. Third, the report analyses several elements of the Africa–Nordic relationship that may shape the direction of the partnership in future, including: - Nordic development assistance to Africa; - Migration and its potential implications for Africa and the Nordic countries, including the impact of the war in Ukraine; - Africa–Nordic trade, investment and loans; - Political, peace and security relations and cooperation; - African and Nordic support for, and cooperation in, multilateral organisations; - Climate change. Finally, the various sections of the report are synthesised, and overall findings are presented