Rhetorical storm: linguistic analysis of uncertainty in severe weather communication, A

2019 Summer.Includes bibliographical references.Weather forecasts are a product with inherent uncertainty and a wide audience (Compton, 2018). Known as an example of prediction rhetoric (Morss, Demuth, & Lazo, 2008), weather forecasts have been found to be influenced by linguistic and cultural factors in case studies (Pennesi, 2007). However, forecasts are still rarely studied as articles of rhetoric (Compton, 2018). This study analyzed patterns amongst the linguistics of uncertainty expressions in Twitter forecasts during a cluster of tornadoes in March 2018 through a content analysis. Tornado hazard messaging, due to tornadoes' short-term threat and overarching potential for damage (Ripberger, Jenkins-Smith, Silva, Carlson, & Henderson, 2014), provides an opportunity to study uncertainty language during short-term hazardous scenarios. Across a five-day period, there were N = 2,459 severe weather forecast tweets from 146 Twitter users located in Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Georgia. Results indicate there were significant relationships between the source of a forecast (i.e., weather media, weather government, and non-weather government) and uncertainty expression. Weather media sources were significantly less likely than government sources (both weather and non-weather) to use uncertainty expressions in their forecast tweets. The state the Twitter source was located also influenced the amount of uncertainty expressed within a forecast. For example, tweets from areas with a greater number of tornadoes were significantly less likely to contain uncertainty expressions than were areas with fewer threats. Also, time (measured as the number of days before tornado touchdown) was shown to have a significant relationship with uncertainty expression, as the amount of uncertainty expressed decreased the closer in time the messages were to the tornadic event. Due to the large amount of uncertainty in weather prediction, meteorological forecasts during severe events provide a unique, fascinating area for future research on risk communication and public safety messaging

A Culture of Fire: Identifying Community Risk Perceptions Surrounding Prescribed Burning in the Flint Hills, Kansas

In the Flint Hills region of eastern Kansas, there is a long tradition of spring prescribed burns. However, air quality concerns in downwind communities have sparked conversation regarding the environmental and social impacts of these burns. This study aimed to identify the risk perceptions associated with prescribed burns using two theoretical frameworks: the social amplification of risk framework and the protective action decision model. In April 2022, we conducted 18 in-depth, semi-structured interviews with Flint Hills community members from different social stations. Participants identified several benefits of prescribed burns: cattle production gains, invasive species management, prairie ecological health maintenance, and wildfire prevention. Some participants viewed prescribed burning as a protective response. However, risk perceptions differed between rural and urban participants: rural community members were primarily concerned with prescribed fires that went out of control, while those in downwind cities were primarily concerned with smoke exposure. Participants sometimes used protective actions to mitigate their risks, but also explained the complexities of changing burn practices that are integral to the local culture, economies, and greater society. Additionally, formal communication of health and safety risks from prescribed burns is not uniform across Kansas counties. We therefore recommend systematic county and statewide communication of burn practices and protective behaviors. Understanding community perceptions of the risks and effects of prescribed burns, and any protective actions taken, can inform how professional communicators approach burning in similar agricultural and ranching communities

Quantifying Prescribed‐Fire Smoke Exposure Using Low‐Cost Sensors and Satellites: Springtime Burning in Eastern Kansas

Abstract Prescribed fires (fires intentionally set for mitigation purposes) produce pollutants, which have negative effects on human and animal health. One of the pollutants produced from fires is fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The Flint Hills (FH) region of Kansas experiences extensive prescribed burning each spring (March‐May). Smoke from prescribed fires is often understudied due to a lack of monitoring in the rural regions where prescribed burning occurs, as well as the short duration and small size of the fires. Our goal was to attribute PM2.5 concentrations to the prescribed burning in the FH. To determine PM2.5 increases from local burning, we used low‐cost PM2.5 sensors (PurpleAir) and satellite observations. The FH were also affected by smoke transported from fires in other regions during 2022. We separated the transported smoke from smoke from fires in eastern Kansas. Based on data from the PurpleAir sensors, we found the 24‐hr median PM2.5 to increase by 3.0–5.3 μg m−3 (based on different estimates) on days impacted by smoke from fires in the eastern Kansas region compared to days unimpacted by smoke. The FH region was the most impacted by smoke PM2.5 compared to other regions of Kansas, as observed in satellite products and in situ measurements. Additionally, our study found that hourly PM2.5 estimates from a satellite‐derived product aligned with our ground‐based measurements. Satellite‐derived products are useful in rural areas like the FH, where monitors are scarce, providing important PM2.5 estimates