Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis

This paper tests for uncovered interest parity (UIP) using daily data for 23 developing and developed countries during the crisis-strewn 1990s. We find that UIP works better on average in the 1990s than in previous eras in the sense that the slope coefficient from a regression of exchange rate changes on interest differentials yields a positive coefficient (which is sometimes insignificantly different from unity). UIP works systematically worse for fixed and flexible exchange rate countries than for crisis countries, but we find no significant differences between rich and poor countries. Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund

Fixes: Of The Forward Discount Puzzle

Regressions of ex post changes in floating exchange rates on appropriate interest differentials typically imply that the high- interest rate currency tends to appreciate, the `forward discount puzzle.' Using data from the European Monetary System, we find that a large part of the forward discount puzzle vanishes for regimes of fixed exchange rates. That is, deviations from uncovered interest parity appear to vary in a way which is dependent upon the exchange rate regime. By using the many EMS realignments, we are also able to quantify the `peso problem.'

Financial Integration: A New Methodology and an Illustration

This paper develops a simple new methodology to test for asset integration and applies it within and between American stock markets. Our technique is tightly based on a general intertemporal asset-pricing model, and relies on estimating and comparing expected risk-free rates across assets. Expected risk-free rates are allowed to vary freely over time, constrained only by the fact that they are equal across (risk-adjusted) assets. Assets are allowed to have general risk characteristics, and are constrained only by a factor model of covariances over short time periods. The technique is undemanding in terms of both data and estimation. We find that expected risk-free rates vary dramatically over time, unlike short interest rates. Further, the S&P 500 market seems to be well integrated, and the NASDAQ is generally (but not always) integrated. However, the NASDAQ is poorly integrated with the S&P 500.

PUTTING THINGS IN ORDER: PATTERNS OF TRADE DYNAMICS AND GROWTH

We develop a procedure to rank-order countries and commodities using dis-aggregated American imports data. We find strong evidence that both countries and commodities can be ranked, consistent with the ""produce cycle"" hypothesis. Countries habitually begin to export goods to the United States according to an ordering; goods are also exported in order. We estimate these orderings using a semi-parametric methodology which takes account of the fact that most goods are not exported by most countries in our sample. Our orderings seem sensible, robust and intuitive. For instance, our country rankings derived from dis-aggregated trade data, turn out to be highly correlated with macroeconomic phenomenon such as national productivity levels and growth rates.

The Small Mammals of Southeastern Virginia as Revealed by Pitfall Trapping

Pitfall trapping is a poor method to catch small mammals but the only way to catch and study the Southeastern Shrew (Sorex longirostris), the primary mammal of interest in the field studies reported here. While learning much about its distribution and abundance, still more was learned about the other small mammals present in forests and fields of eastern Virginia. A total of 15 species was captured at 19 locations during the 1990-2013 period, including five shrews, two moles, and eight rodents, representing all but one of the common small mammals in eastern Virginia

The Natural History of the Marsh Rice Rat, \u3ci\u3eOryzomys palustris\u3c/i\u3e, in Eastern Virginia

The marsh rice rat, Oryzomys palustris, is a common rodent in tidal marshes of eastern Virginia, including those on the barrier islands. It also is present in grassy old fields in upland habitats in the coastal plain and parts of the piedmont of Virginia. This report summarizes what has been learned in recent decades about the population biology of this species in Virginia, including aspects of behavior, density, diet, distribution, genetics, habitats, mammal associates, and reproduction

Distribution and Status of the Southern Bog Lemming, Synaptomys cooperi, in Southeastern Virginia

The Dismal Swamp subspecies of the Southern bog lemming, Synaptomys cooperi helaletes, was named based on specimens collected during the 1895-1898 biological surveys conducted in the Dismal Swamp by the US Department of Agriculture. Unknown in the 20th Century until re-discovered in 1980, this small boreal rodent was believed to be restricted to the Great Dismal Swamp of Virginia and North Carolina where the cool damp conditions had permitted it to survive during the Holocene. However, field studies conducted since 1980 have revealed southern bog lemmings to be widespread throughout southeastern Virginia, with populations encompassing an area of more than 3300 km2, including the cities of Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, and Suffolk, and Isle of Wight County. Lemmings were present on 38 of 165 (23%) pitfall-trapping sites; their frequency was much greater in prime habitats dominated by grasses and sedges on damp organic soils. Thus, southern bog lemmings are distributed widely in southeastern Virginia and, where present, they often are among the most numerous species of small mammal

Range Extension for the Dismal Swamp Southern Bog Lemming, \u3ci\u3eSynaptomys cooperi helaletes\u3c/i\u3e, in Eastern Virginia

The distribution of the Dismal Swamp Southern Bog Lemming is extended to include three counties west of the Dismal Swamp in southeastern Virginia, long considered its only location in the state. Evidence of lemmings was detected at 10 of 27 survey sites, and confirmed by trapping at three of five sites, all dominated by herbaceous vegetation

Late Prehistoric and Protohistoric Large Mammal Zoogeography of Virginia

Evidence derived from18late prehistoric (middle and late Woodland Period) archeological sites, from several early historical accounts, and from the current understanding of the distribution of Virginia mammals indicates that the large mammal fauna of the Commonwealth has not changed substantially within the past 4,000 yrs. Some species (e.g., bison, elk, timber wolf, and mountain lion) have been extirpated since the settlement of Virginia by Europeans; some previously extirpated species (e.g., porcupine, coyote, and beaver) have been naturally or artificially reintroduced during the historical period, and others (e.g., woodchuck and red fox) probably have expanded their distributions as a result of changing land-use patterns in the Commonwealth

Natural History of the Southern Bog Lemming in Southeastern Virginia

The isolated subspecies of Southern Bog Lemming of southeastern Virginia, Synaptomys cooperi helaletes, has been studied extensively since its rediscovery in the Great Dismal Swamp in 1980. Multiple studies using pitfall traps, starting in the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge and then extending elsewhere in southeastern Virginia and adjacent northeastern North Carolina, have revealed lemmings to be much more widespread and often more common than previously believed, with their presence now confirmed as far west as Surry and Sussex counties, about 30 km east of Petersburg, Virginia. When present, lemmings often are among the most numerous members of the small mammal community. Even in appropriate habitat, its presence seemingly is determined by its proximity to another arvicoline rodent, the Meadow Vole, Microtus pennsylvanicus, which usually is larger and perhaps competitively and behaviorally dominant