Approximate dynamic fault tree calculations for modelling water supply risks

Traditional fault tree analysis is not always sufficient when analysing complex systems. To overcome the limitations dynamic fault tree (DFT) analysis is suggested in the literature as well as different approaches for how to solve DFTs. For added value in fault tree analysis, approximate DFT calculations based on a Markovian approach are presented and evaluated here. The approximate DFT calculations are performed using standard Monte Carlo simulations and do not require simulations of the full Markov models, which simplifies model building and in particular calculations. It is shown how to extend the calculations of the traditional OR- and AND-gates, so that information is available on the failure probability, the failure rate and the mean downtime at all levels in the fault tree. Two additional logic gates are presented that make it possible to model a system’s ability to compensate for failures. This work was initiated to enable correct analyses of water supply risks. Drinking water systems are typically complex with an inherent ability to compensate for failures that is not easily modelled using traditional logic gates. The approximate DFT calculations are compared to results from simulations of theorresponding Markov models for three water supply examples. For the traditional OR- and AND-gates, and one gate modelling compensation, the errors in the results are small. For the other gate modelling compensation, the error increases with the number of compensating components. The errors are, however, in most cases acceptable with respect to uncertainties in input data. The approximate DFT calculations improve the capabilities of fault tree analysis of drinking water systems since they provide additional and important information and are simple and practically applicable

Verktyg för kvantitativ mikrobiologisk riskbedömning (QMRA) av små avloppsanläggningar nära dricksvattenbrunnar – Manual 2016-03-31

Denna manual är avsedd att ge vägledning för att använda ett nyutvecklat verktyg för kvantitativ mikrobiologisk riskbedömning (QMRA) av små avloppsanläggningar nära dricksvattenbrunnar. Som grund för verktyget ligger projektet Verktyg för mikrobiell riskanalys av små avloppsanläggningar nära dricksvattenbrunnar, finansierat av Havs- och vattenmyndigheten inom ramen för anslag 1:12 Åtgärder för havs- och vattenmiljöer. Den teoretiska bakgrunden till detta verktyg (QMRA-verktyget) med redogörelse för antaganden, men även en kortfattad manual, har tidigare redovisats tillsammans med ett fältförsök med bakteriofager i markens mättade grundvattenzon. QMRA-verktyget ska kunna användas av tillsynsmyndigheten för att analysera risken för smittspridning från befintliga avloppsanläggningar men också i planeringssyfte vid bedömning av rimliga säkerhetsavstånd och placering av nya små avlopp och dricksvattenbrunnar. Verktyget är utformat enligt grunderna för kvantitativ mikrobiologisk riskbedömning som inkluderar fyra huvudsteg: faroidentifiering, exponeringsbedömning, dos-respons-bedömning och riskkarakterisering. Modellutvecklingen har framförallt varit inriktad på exponeringsbedömningen och att ta fram en modell som beaktar den barriäreffekt som uppnås via slamavskiljaren, biohuden, transport i markens omättade zon samt transport i markens mättade grundvattenzon. Speciellt fokus har riktats mot transporten och avskiljningen i mättad grundvattenzon. Modellen är fritt tillgänglig som en webb-länk och kräver ingen installation på den egna datorn, även om möjlighet finns till detta. I denna manual beskrivs indata och hur en modellering genomförs, steg för steg. QMRA-verktyget kan ses som ett komplement och fördjupande verktyg i arbetet med att bedöma den smittorisk som små avloppsanläggningar medför. Under hösten 2015 genomfördes utbildningsseminarier under en dag i Uddevalla, Alingsås respektive Norrtälje kommun riktade till miljö- och hälsoskyddsinspektörerna. Under dessa seminarier fick deltagarna dels föreläsningar inom mikrobiologi, riskbedömning och hydrogeologi, dels en presentation av modellverktyget. Deltagarna fick själva testa verktyget på medhavda exempel. Utöver att sprida kunskap om verktyget syftade seminarierna till att generera erfarenhet och underlag för att förbättra verktyget. Den version av QMRA-verktyget som beskrivs i denna manual är en produkt av genomförda seminarier. I ett avslutande kapitel redovisas modelljusteringar samt några av de viktigaste aspekterna som diskuterades vid seminarierna

Verktyg för mikrobiell riskanalys (MRA) av små avloppsanläggningar nära dricksvattenbrunnar – Modellutveckling och fältförsök

Föreliggande rapport utgör slutredovisningen av projektet Verktyg för mikrobiell riskanalys av små avloppsanläggningar nära dricksvattenbrunnar, som finansierats av Havs- och vattenmyndigheten inom ramen för anslag 1:12 Åtgärder för havs- och vattenmiljöer. I utlysningen konstateras att små avlopp utgör ett betydande problem och att det därför är viktigt att stimulera fortsatt utveckling inom verksamhetsområdet. Projektet som redovisas i denna rapport fokuserade på smittspridning från små avlopp till närliggande dricksvattenbrunnar. Ett verktyg i form av en datormodell för mikrobiell riskanalys (MRA) anpassad till enskilda avlopp har utvecklats och ett fältförsök har genomförts för att få ökad kunskap om virustransport i grundvatten. Projektet har genomförts i samarbete mellan Chalmers tekniska högskola (DRICKS – Centrum för dricksvattenforskning), Tyréns AB och Sveriges geologiska undersökning. Folkhälsomyndigheten och Norges miljø- og biovitenskapelige universitet (NMBU) har genomfört vattenanalyser. Representanter från Uddevalla kommun, Trollhättans Stad och Alingsås kommun har tillhandahållit synpunkter på den MRA-modell som utvecklats. Författarna vill rikta ett stort tack till Uddevalla kommun och speciellt Tony Grantz som medverkat i projektet och praktiskt bistått i fältförsökets genomförande. Ett stort tack riktas också till Stiftelsen Backamo Lägerplats som upplåtit det aktuella fallstudieområdet. Projektet som presenteras i denna rapport har varit nära knutet till andra pågående projekt vid Chalmers som behandlar mikrobiella risker och grundvattenfrågor, men då med fokus på kommunala grundvattentäkter. Författarna är mycket tacksamma för finansieringen från Havs- och vattenmyndigheten, vilket möjliggjort detta projekt och därmed också en fortsatt utveckling inom området. Förhoppningen är att den utvecklade MRA-modellen, trots kvarstående förbättringsmöjligheter, ska komma till praktisk nytta och underlätta bedömningen av den hälsorisk enskilda avlopp kan utgöra

European Community Multi-Center Trial "Fetal ECG Analysis During Labor": ST plus CTG analysis

This report form part of the European Community Multi-Center Trial "Fetal ECG Analysis during Labor". Aim of this prospective trial was to identify changes in the fetal ECG waveform with cases of verified fetal hypoxia. In this paper we also report on the use of a newly developed automatic system for identification of ST waveform changes (ST Log). All ECG were recorded with the STAN recorder (Neoventa Medical AB, Gothenburg, Sweden). The ECG information was not displayed during labor in order not to influence the clinical management. This report includes data from 320 cases and include six cases of fetal intrapartum hypoxia. Twenty seven cases showed changes in ST waveform. All five cases with the most marked ST change (a rise in T/QRS of >0.10 units and lasting more then 10 minutes) had signs of ongoing intrapartum hypoxia. Six out of six cases with evidence of intrapartum asphyxia, showed ST changes. On the basis of our multi-center trial it appears that the combined analysis of CTG and ST waveform changes provides an accurate way to identify adverse events during labor. The work is continuing with a new STAN recorder developed by Neoventa Medical in Goteborg and currently being tested in a Swedish randomized, controlled multi-center trial

Self-reported cold sensitivity in normal subjects and in patients with traumatic hand injuries or hand-arm vibration syndrome

Background: Cold sensitivity is a common and disabling complaint following hand injuries. The main purpose of this study was to describe self-reported consequences of cold sensitivity and the association with disability and health-related quality of life in patients with hand injuries or hand-arm vibration syndrome (HAVS) and in normal subjects. Methods: Responses to the Cold Intolerance Symptom Severity (CISS) questionnaire, Potential Work Exposure Scale (PWES), Disability of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) and Short-Form 36 questionnaire (SF-36) were investigated in normal subjects (n = 94), hand injured patients (amputation and nerve injuries, n = 88) and patients with HAVS (n = 30). The results are presented as median (range), percent and mean deviation from norms. The Kruskal Wallis Test or Mann-Whitney U-Test were used to identify significant differences between multiple groups or subgroups. The Spearman rank correlation was used to study the relationship between cold sensitivity and disability. Results: Abnormal cold sensitivity (CISS score > 50) was seen in 75% and 45% of patients with HAVS and a traumatic hand injury, respectively. Patients were significantly more exposed to cold in their work environment than the normal population, with a consequently negative effect on work ability due to cold sensitivity. Patients with abnormal cold sensitivity were more seriously disabled and had a poorer health-related quality of life than patients with normal cold sensitivity [higher DASH scores and e. g. significantly larger mean deviation from norms in the subscales Role Physical and Bodily Pain (SF-36)]. Conclusion: Severe and abnormal cold sensitivity may have a profound impact on work capacity, leisure, disability and health-related quality of life. It is frequently seen in patients with traumatic hand injuries and particularly apparent in patients with HAVS

Uncertainty modelling in multi-criteria analysis of water safety measures

Water utilities must assess risks and make decisions on safety measures in order to obtain a safe and sustainable drinking water supply. The World Health Organization emphasises preparation of Water Safety Plans, in which risk ranking by means of risk matrices with discretised probability and consequence scales is commonly used. Risk ranking enables prioritisation of risks but there is currently no common and structured way of performing uncertainty analysis and using risk ranking for evaluating and comparing water safety measures. To enable a proper prioritisation of safety measures and an efficient use of available resources for risk reduction, two alternative models linking risk ranking and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are presented and evaluated. The two models specifically enable uncertainty modelling in MCDA and they differ in terms of how uncertainties in risk levels are considered. The need of formal handling of risk and uncertainty in MCDA is emphasised in the literature and the suggested models provide innovations that are not dependent on the application domain. In the case study application presented here, possible safety measures are evaluated based on the benefit of estimated risk reduction, the cost of implementation and the probability of not achieving an acceptable risk level. Additional criteria such as environmental impact and consumer trust may also be included when applying the models. The case study shows how safety measures can be ranked based on preference scores or cost-effectiveness and how measures not reducing the risk enough can be identified and disqualified. Furthermore, the probability of each safety measure being ranked highest can be calculated. The two models provide a stepwise procedure for prioritising safety measures and enable a formalised handling of uncertainties in input data and results

Assessment of the spatial distributions of total- and methyl-mercury and their relationship to sediment geochemistry from a whole-lake perspective

The aim of this study was to determine the spatial variability for total- and methylmercury in surface sediments (0–2 cm) across a single whole-lake basin, and to relate this variability to the sediment’s geochemical composition. 83 surface sediment samples from Stor-Strömsjön – a lake with multiple sub-basins located in northern Sweden – were analyzed for geochemical composition as well as total-mercury (total-Hg) and methylmercury (methyl-Hg; 35 samples) concentrations. Our results indicate that variations in fine-grained mineral matter (36%) and organic matter (34%) explain an equal amount of the total-Hg variation, but that their relative importance varies between different parts of the lake. Total-Hg concentrations were similar in locations controlled by organic matter or fine-grained mineral matter (average 109 ng g␣1); however, total-Hg inventories (mass per unit area) were significantly higher in the latter (35 and 53 mg m␣2, respectively). Methyl-Hg concentrations are largely (55% of variance) controlled by water depth and sulfur concentration, which supports the importance of within lake methylation reported from other studies. Both for concentrations and inventories the spatial distribution for methyl-Hg in surface sediments is patchy, and interestingly the highest methyl-Hg inventory (1.4 mg m␣2) was found in a shallow location with coarse-grained minerogenic sediment (very low organic matter). A large spatial variability, even within a single lake, is something that needs to be recognized, e.g., when studying processes affecting mercury cycling, mercury loadings and when using lake sediments to reconstruct historic mercury deposition

Using soil function evaluation in multi-criteria decision analysis for sustainability appraisal of remediation alternatives

Soil contamination is one of the major threats constraining proper functioning of the soil and thus provision of ecosystem services. Remedial actions typically only address the chemical soil quality by reducing total contaminant concentrations to acceptable levels guided by land use. However, emerging regulatory requirements on soil protection demand a holistic view on soil assessment in remediation projects thus accounting for a variety of soil functions. Such a view would require not only that the contamination concentrations are assessed and attended to, but also that other aspects are taking into account, thus addressing also physical and biological as well as other chemical soil quality indicators (SQIs). This study outlines how soil function assessment can be a part of a holistic sustainability appraisal of remediation alternatives using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The paper presents a method for practitioners for evaluating the effects of remediation alternatives on selected ecological soil functions using a suggested minimum data set (MDS) containing physical, biological and chemical SQIs. The measured SQls are transformed into sub-scores by the use of scoring curves, which allows interpretation and the integration of soil quality data into the MCDA framework. The method is demonstrated at a study site (Marieberg, Sweden) and the results give an example of how soil analyses using the suggested MDS can be used for soil function assessment and subsequent input to the MCDA framework