Arctic RCM simulations of temperature and precipitation derived indices relevant to future frozen ground conditions

A regional climate model with high horizontal resolution (25 km) is used to downscale 20-year-long time slices of present-day (1980–1999) and future (2046–2065, 2080–2099) Arctic climate, as simulated by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model under the A1B emission scenario. Changes in simulated air temperature and derived indices at the end of the century indicate that significant impacts on permafrost conditions should be expected. But the magnitude of the change is regionally conditioned beyond what is obvious: Warm permafrost in the sporadic to discontinuous zone is threatened and may degrade or even complete thaw before the end of the century. A decrease in freezing and increase in thawing degree-days is interpreted as potential decrease in seasonal freeze depth and increase in active layer thickness (ALT). We show that for some regions increasing maximum summer temperature is associated with an increase of interannual temperature variability in summer, while in other regions decreased maximum summer temperatures are related to decreased variability. The occurrence of warm/cold summers and spells changes significantly in the future time slices using the present-day criteria for classification. Taken together this implies a regionally varying exposure to significant change in permafrost conditions. In addition to these aspects of the general warming trend that would promote an increase in ALT and a northward shift of the southern permafrost boundary, an analysis of the occurrence of warm summers and spells highlight some particularly vulnerable regions for permafrost degradation (e.g. West Siberian Plain, Laptev Sea coast, Canadian Archipelago), but also some less vulnerable regions (e.g. Mackenzie Mountains)

Initial Conceptualization and Simulation of Arctic Tundra Landscape Evolution Using the Alaska Thermokarst Model

Thermokarst topography forms whenever ice-rich permafrost thaws and the ground subsides due to the volume loss when excess ground ice transitions to water. The Alaska Thermokarst Model (ATM) is a large-scale, state-and-transition model designed to simulate transitions between [non-]thermokarst landscape units, or cohorts. The ATM uses a frame-based methodology to track transitions and proportion of cohorts within a 1-km2 grid cell. In the arctic tundra environment, the ATM tracks thermokarst-related transitions between wetland tundra, graminoid tundra, shrub tundra, and thermokarst lakes. The transition from one cohort to another due to thermokarst processes can take place if thaw reaches ice-rich ground layers either due to pulse disturbance events such as a large precipitation event or fires or due to gradual active layer deepening that eventually results in penetration of the protective layer. The protective layer buffers the ice-rich soils from the land surface and is critical to determine how susceptible an area is to thermokarst degradation. The rate of terrain transition in our model is determined by the ice-content of the soil, the drainage efficiency (or ability of the landscape to store or transport water), and a cumulative probability of thermokarst initiation. Tundra types are allowed to transition from one type to another (ie wetland tundra to a graminoid tundra) under favorable climatic conditions. In this study, we present our conceptualization and initial simulation results from the ATM model for an 1792 km2 area on the Barrow Peninsula, Alaska. The area selected for simulation is located in a polygonal tundra landscape under varying degrees of thermokarst degradation. The goal of this modeling study is to simulate landscape evolution in response to thermokarst disturbance as a result of climate change. The ATM will eventually be incorporated into the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada for use in management decisions that are influenced by thermokarst dynamics

Thermal state of permafrost in North America: A contribution to the international polar year

A snapshot of the thermal state of permafrost in northern North America during the International Polar Year (IPY) was developed using ground temperature data collected from 350 boreholes. More than half these were established during IPY to enhance the network in sparsely monitored regions. The measurement sites span a diverse range of ecoclimatic and geological conditions across the continent and are at various elevations within the Cordillera. The ground temperatures within the discontinuous permafr

Interglacial History of a Palaeo-lake and Regional Environment: A Multi-proxy Study of a Permafrost Deposit from Bolshoy Lyakhovsky Island, Arctic Siberia

Chironomid, pollen, and rhizopod records from a permafrost sequence at the Bolshoy Lyakhovsky Island (New Siberian Archipelago) document the evolution of a thermokarst palaeo-lake and environmental conditions in the region during the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, ca. 130120 ka). Open Poaceae and Artemisia associations dominated vegetation at the beginning of the interglacial period, ca. 130 ka. Rare shrub thickets (Salix, Betula nana, Alnus fruticosa) grew in more protected and wetter places as well. Saalian ice wedges started to melt during this time, resulting in the formation of an initial thermokarst water body. The high percentage of semi-aquatic chironomids suggests that a peatland-pool palaeo-biotope existed at the site, when initial water body started to form. A distinct decrease in semi-aquatic chironomid taxa and an increase in lacustrine ones point to a gradual pooling of water in basin, which could in turn create thaw a permanent pond during the subsequent period. The highest relative abundance of Chironomus and Procladius reflects an existence of unfrozen water remaining under the ice throughout the ice-covered period during the later stage of palaeo-lake development. Chironomid record points to three successive stages during the water body evolution: (1) a peatland pool; (2) a pond (i.e., less deep than the maximum ice-cover thickness); and (3) a shallow lake (i.e., more deep than the maximum ice-cover thickness). The evolutionary trend of palaeo-lake points to intensive thermokarst processes occurring in the region during the Last Interglacial. Shrub tundra communities with Alnus fruticosa, Betula nana dominated the vegetation during the interglacial optimum that is evidenced by pollen record. The climate was relatively moist and warm. The results of this study suggest that quantitative chironomid-based temperature reconstructions from the Arctic thermokarst ponds/lakes may be problematic owing to other key environmental factors, such as prolonged periods of winter anoxia and local hydrological/geomorphological processes, controlling the chironomid assemblage