Immigration and the pension system in Spain

In this paper we use a large overlapping generations model with individuals that differ across age, productivity and native status to assess the effects on the pension system of different immigration quotas in the context of an aging population by computing how much should social security taxes be rised in order to pay for the pension burden in two model economies. The first one is the standard model pioneered by Auerbach and Kotlikoff (1987) where skilled and unskilled workers are perfect substitutes in the production process. In the second model economy, individuals with different skill levels are imperfect substitutes as in Canova and Ravn (1998). The main result of the paper is that half of the reduction of the social security tax rate associated with immigration in the standard model is lost when skilled and unskilled individual are imperfect substitutes. Consequently, the standard model with perfect substitution overestimates the ability of immigration inflows to sustain the pension system in Spain

PRIVATIZING SOCIAL SECURITY: THE ROLE OF IMPERFECT SUBSTITUTION BETWEEN LESS AND MORE EXPERIENCED WORKERS

In this paper we use a large overlapping generations model with individuals that differ across age and productivity to assess the effect of privatizing a pay-as-you-go social security system in two model economies. The first one is the standard model pioneered by Auerbach and Kotlikoff (1987) characterized by the perfect substitutability in production of individuals with different experience levels. In the second one, individuals with different experience in the labor market are imperfect substitutes in production (Kremer and Thomson (1998)). The findings indicate that although in both economies the aggregate effects of removing social security are qualitatively similar, the standard model economy underestimates both the welfare losses of the individuals living at the period of the pension reform and the increase in pre-tax income inequality associated with such policy change.

ON THE INTERACTION BETWEEN EDUCATION AND SOCIAL SECURITY

This paper uses an overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility choices to analyze the quantitative costs and benefits of subsidizing higher education, paying particular attention to the interaction between such policy and the sustainability of the social security system. The paper focuses on the demographic change as the mechanism that link both policies. It is found that an increase in education subsidies changes the educational composition of the population and lowers average fertility. Lower average fertility and higher life expectancy of educated individuals translates into changes in the age structure of the population that requires an increase in the social security tax rate in order to balance the pension budget. Such process reduces the welfare benefits of this educational policy since the rise in social security taxes lowers the after-tax lifetime earnings of almost all individuals born in the period of the policy reform and over.

IMMIGRATION AND THE PENSION SYSTEM IN SPAIN

In this paper we use a large overlapping generations model with individuals that differ across age, productivity and native status to assess the effects on the pension system of different immigration quotas in the context of an aging population by computing how much should social security taxes be rised in order to pay for the pension burden in two model economies. The first one is the standard model pioneered by Auerbach and Kotlikoff (1987) where skilled and unskilled workers are perfect substitutes in the production process. In the second model economy, individuals with different skill levels are imperfect substitutes as in Canova and Ravn (1998). The main result of the paper is that half of the reduction of the social security tax rate associated with immigration in the standard model is lost when skilled and unskilled individual are imperfect substitutes. Consequently, the standard model with perfect substitution overestimates the ability of immigration inflows to sustain the pension system in Spain.

Foreign direct investment and spillovers : gradualism may be better

In contrast to the standard literature, we show that the presence of spillovers may justify temporarily restricting the inflow of foreign direct investment. Our argument is based on two stylized features of spillovers: first, technology transfers --- and subsequent spillovers --- are limited by the economy's absorptive capacity; and second, spillovers take time to materialize. By letting capital in more gradually, initial investment has the time to create spillovers --- and upgrade the economy's absorptive capacity --- before further investment occurs. This allows subsequent capital inflows to benefit from greater technology transfers. As a result, the economy converges to a steady state with a superior technology and a greater capital stock.We acknowledge financial support from the European Union Directorate General XII (project SERD-1999-000102) and of the Comunidad de Madrid (project 06/0186/2002

Social Security Reform with Uninsurable Income Risk and Endogenous Borrowing Constraints

We study the aggregate effects of a social security reform in a large overlapping generations model where markets are incomplete and households face uninsurable idiosyncratic income shocks. We depart from the previous literature by assuming that, because of lack of commitment in the credit market, the borrowing constraint in the unique asset is endogenously determined by the agents' incentives to default on previous debts. We find that a model with exogenous borrowing constraints overestimates the positive effect of reforming social security on the capital stock and the saving rate, compared to our model with endogenous borrowing limit. The reason is that, in the latter, the size of precautionary savings is smaller because after the reform the incentives to default on previous debts are lower and consequently households face more relaxed borrowing limits. Adding retirement accounts to the basic model does not change these conclusions, although the quantitative importance of endogenizing borrowing constraints is reduced.

Foreign direct investment and spillovers : gradualism may be better.

The standard argument says that in the presence of positive spillovers foreign direct investment should be promoted and subsidized. In contrast, this paper claims that the very existence of spillovers may require temporarily restricting FDI. Our argument is based on two features of spillovers: they are limited by the economy's absorptive capacity and they take time to materialize. By letting in capital more gradually, initial investment has the time to create spillovers – and upgrade the economy's absorptive capacity – before further investment occurs. The economy converges to a steady state with a superior technology and a greater capital stock

On the interaction between education and social security.

This paper uses an overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility choices to analyze the quantitative costs and benefits of subsidizing higher education, paying particular attention to the interaction between such policy and the sustainability of the social security system. The paper focuses on the demographic change as the mechanism that link both policies. It is found that an increase in education subsidies changes the educational composition of the population and lowers average fertility. Lower average fertility and higher life expectancy of educated individuals translates into changes in the age structure of the population that requires an increase in the social security tax rate in order to balance the pension budget. Such process reduces the welfare benefits of this educational policy since the rise in social security taxes lowers the after-tax lifetime earnings of almost all individuals born in the period of the policy reform and over.

On the aggregate effects of immigration in Spain

Over the period 19952006 the Spanish economy experienced a rapid increase in employment and output growth, a surge in investment over GDP, a substantial deterioration in the current account balance and an improvement in the finances of the social security system. This paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model designed to quantify the role played by immigration in shaping these facts. In the context of the aging of the Spanish population, we also analyze the medium and long run effects of the immigration process accounting for relevant supply and demand effects. This is done by allowing for enough heterogeneity in the demographic characteristics of immigrant and native workers in a way that allow us to perform counterfactual experiments regarding the flow of immigrants and its skill composition