Misclassification in defining and diagnosing microcephaly

Background: Several health agencies define microcephaly for surveillance purposes using a single criterion, a percentile or Z-score cut-off for newborn head circumference. This definition, however, conflicts with the reported prevalence of microcephaly even in populations with endemic Zika virus. Objective: We explored possible reasons for this conflict, hypothesising that the definition of microcephaly used in some studies may be incompletely described, lacking the additional clinical criteria that clinicians use to make a formal diagnosis. We also explored the potential for misclassification that can result from differences in these definitions, especially when applying a percentile cut-off definition in the presence of the much lower observed prevalence estimates that we believe to be valid. Methods: We conducted simulations under a theoretical bimodal distribution of head circumference. For different definitions of microcephaly, we calculated the sensitivity and specificity using varying cut-offs of head circumference. We then calculated and plotted the positive predictive value for each of these definitions by prevalence of microcephaly. Results: Simple simulations suggest that if the true prevalence of microcephaly is approximately what is reported in peer-reviewed literature, then relying on cut-off-based definitions may lead to very poor positive predictive value under realistic conditions. Conclusions: While a simple head circumference criterion may be used in practice as a screening or surveillance tool, the definition lacks clarification as to what constitutes true pathological microcephaly and may lead to confusion about the true prevalence of microcephaly in Zika-endemic areas, as well as bias in aetiologic studies

Comparative effectiveness of alternative intervals between first and second doses of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines

The optimal interval between the first and second doses of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines has not been thoroughly evaluated. Employing a target trial emulation approach, we compared the effectiveness of different interdose intervals among >6 million mRNA vaccine recipients in Georgia, USA, from December 2020 to March 2022. We compared three protocols defined by interdose interval: recommended by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) (17-25 days for Pfizer-BioNTech; 24-32 days for Moderna), late-but-allowable (26-42 days for Pfizer-BioNTech; 33-49 days for Moderna), and late ( ≥ 43 days for Pfizer-BioNTech; ≥50 days for Moderna). In the short-term, the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection was lowest under the FDA-recommended protocol. Longer-term, the late-but-allowable protocol resulted in the lowest risk (risk ratio on Day 120 after the first dose administration compared to the FDA-recommended protocol: 0.83 [95% confidence interval: 0.82-0.84]). Here, we showed that delaying the second dose by 1-2 weeks may provide stronger long-term protection

Effect of early life antibiotic use on serologic responses to oral rotavirus vaccine in the MAL-ED birth cohort study

Background: Oral rotavirus vaccine efficacy is lower in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) than in high-income countries. The degree to which antibiotic use impacts rotavirus vaccine immunogenicity in LMICs is unknown. Using data from a multisite prospective birth cohort study of malnutrition and enteric disease, MAL-ED, we examined the effect of early life antibiotic use on the immune response to rotavirus vaccine. Methods: We assessed whether antibiotic use from birth up to 7 days following rotavirus vaccine series completion was associated with rotavirus seropositivity at 7 months of age in Brazil, Peru, and South Africa using a modified Poisson regression. We then used parametric g-computation to estimate the impact of hypothetical interventions that treated all children and alternatively prevented inappropriate antibiotic treatments on seropositivity. Results: Of 537 children, 178 (33%) received at least one antibiotic course during the exposure window. Probability of seropositivity was 40% higher among children who had at least one course of antibiotics compared with those with no antibiotic exposure (PR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.89). There was no significant difference by the number of antibiotic courses received or total duration of antibiotics. Treating all children with antibiotics would be associated with a 19% (95% CI: 18%, 21%) absolute increase in seropositivity at 7 months. In contrast, removing inappropriate antibiotics would result in a 4% absolute reduction (95% CI: −5%, −2%) in seropositivity. Conclusions: Early life antibiotic use was associated with increased seropositivity. However, a hypothetical intervention to remove inappropriate antibiotics would have little effect on overall seropositivity. Further investigation into the underlying mechanisms of antibiotic use on the infant gut microbiome and immune response are needed

Transporting monovalent rotavirus vaccine efficacy estimates to an external target population: a secondary analysis of data from a randomised controlled trial in Malawi

Oral rotavirus vaccine efficacy estimates from randomised controlled trials are highly variable across settings. Although the randomised study design increases the likelihood of internal validity of findings, results from trials may not always apply outside the context of the study due to differences between trial participants and the target population. Here, we used a weight-based method to transport results from a monovalent rotavirus vaccine clinical trial conducted in Malawi between 2005 and 2008 to a target population of all trial-eligible children in Malawi, represented by data from the 2015-2016 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). We reweighted trial participants to reflect the population characteristics described by the Malawi DHS. Vaccine efficacy was estimated for 1008 trial participants after applying these weights such that they represented trial-eligible children in Malawi. We also conducted subgroup analyses to examine the heterogeneous treatment effects by stunting and tuberculosis vaccination status at enrolment. In the original trial, the estimates of one-year vaccine efficacy against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis and any-severity rotavirus gastroenteritis in Malawi were 49.2% (95% CI 15.6%-70.3%) and 32.1% (95% CI 2.5%-53.1%), respectively. After weighting trial participants to represent all trial-eligible children in Malawi, vaccine efficacy increased to 62.2% (95% CI 35.5%-79.0%) against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis and 38.9% (95% CI 11.4%-58.5%) against any-severity rotavirus gastroenteritis. Rotavirus vaccine efficacy may differ between trial participants and target populations when these two populations differ. Differences in tuberculosis vaccination status between the trial sample and DHS population contributed to varying trial and target population vaccine efficacy estimates

Could a Shigella vaccine impact long-term health outcomes?: Summary report of an expert meeting to inform a Shigella vaccine public health value proposition, March 24 and 29, 2021.

Shigellosis is a leading cause of diarrhea and dysentery in young children from low to middle-income countries and adults experiencing traveler's diarrhea worldwide. In addition to acute illness, infection by Shigella bacteria is associated with stunted growth among children, which has been linked to detrimental long-term health, developmental, and economic outcomes. On March 24 and 29, 2021, PATH convened an expert panel to discuss the potential impact of Shigella vaccines on these long-term outcomes. Based on current empirical evidence, this discussion focused on whether Shigella vaccines could potentially alleviate the long-term burden associated with Shigella infections. Also, the experts provided recommendations about how to best model the burden, health and vaccine impact, and economic consequences of Shigella infections. This international multidisciplinary panel included 13 scientists, physicians, and economists from multiple relevant specialties. According to the panel, while the relationship between Shigella infections and childhood growth deficits is complex, this relationship likely exists. Vaccine probe studies are the crucial next step to determine whether vaccination could ameliorate Shigella infection-related long-term impacts. Infants should be vaccinated during their first year of life to maximize their protection from severe acute health outcomes and ideally reduce stunting risk and subsequent negative long-term developmental and health impacts. With vaccine schedule crowding, targeted or combination vaccination approaches would likely increase vaccine uptake in high-burden areas. Shigella impact and economic assessment models should include a wider range of linear growth outcomes. Also, these models should produce a spectrum of results-ones addressing immediate benefits for usual health care decision-makers and others that include broader health impacts, providing a more comprehensive picture of vaccination benefits. While many of the underlying mechanisms of this relationship need better characterization, the remaining gaps can be best addressed by collecting data post-vaccine introduction or through large trials

The 2022 Vaccines Against Shigella and Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VASE) Conference: Summary of breakout workshops

The global public health nonprofit organization PATH hosted the third Vaccines Against Shigella and Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VASE) Conference in Washington, DC, from November 29 to December 1, 2022. This international gathering focused on cutting-edge research related to the development of vaccines against neglected diarrheal pathogens including Shigella, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), Campylobacter, and non-typhoidal Salmonella. In addition to the conference's plenary content, the agenda featured ten breakout workshops on topics of importance to the enteric vaccine field. This unique aspect of VASE Conferences allows focused groups of attendees to engage in in-depth discussions on subjects of interest to the enteric vaccine development community. In 2022, the workshops covered a range of topics. Two focused on the public health value of enteric vaccines, with one examining how to translate evidence into policy and the other on the value proposition of potential combination vaccines against bacterial enteric pathogens. Two more workshops explored new tools for the development and evaluation of vaccines, with the first on integrating antigen/antibody technologies for mucosal vaccine and immunoprophylactic development, and the second on adjuvants specifically for Shigella vaccines for children in low- and middle-income countries. Another pair of workshops covered the status of vaccines against two emerging enteric pathogens, Campylobacter and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella. The remaining four workshops examined the assessment of vaccine impact on acute and long-term morbidity. These included discussions on the nature and severity of intestinal inflammation; cellular immunity and immunological memory in ETEC and Shigella infections; clinical and microbiologic endpoints for Shigella vaccine efficacy studies in children; and intricacies of protective immunity to enteric pathogens. This article provides a brief summary of the presentations and discussions at each workshop in order to share these sessions with the broader enteric vaccine field.SCOPUS: cp.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe