Sensitivity Analysis for a Scenario-Based Reliability Prediction Model

As a popular means for capturing behavioural requirements, scenariosshow how components interact to provide system-level functionality.If component reliability information is available, scenarioscan be used to perform early system reliability assessment. Inprevious work we presented an automated approach for predictingsoftware system reliability that extends a scenario specificationto model (1) the probability of component failure, and (2) scenariotransition probabilities. Probabilistic behaviour models ofthe system are then synthesized from the extended scenario specification.From the system behaviour model, reliability predictioncan be computed. This paper complements our previous work andpresents a sensitivity analysis that supports reasoning about howcomponent reliability and usage profiles impact on the overall systemreliability. For this purpose, we present how the system reliabilityvaries as a function of the components reliabilities and thescenario transition probabilities. Taking into account the concurrentnature of component-based software systems, we also analysethe effect of implied scenarios prevention into the sensitivity analysisof our reliability prediction technique

Using presence-absence data to establish reserve selection procedures that are robust to temporal species turnover

Previous studies suggest that a network of nature reserves with maximum efficiency (obtained by selecting the minimum area such that each species is represented once) is likely to be insufficient to maintain species in the network over time. Here, we test the performance of three selection strategies which require presence-absence data, two of them previously proposed (multiple representations and selecting an increasing percentage of each species' range) and a novel one based on selecting the site where each species has exhibited a higher permanence rate in the past. Multiple representations appear to be a safer strategy than selecting a percentage of range because the former gives priority to rarer species while the latter favours the most widespread. The most effective strategy was the one based on the permanence rate, indicating that the robustness of reserve networks can be improved by adopting reserve selection procedures that integrate information about the relative value of sites. This strategy was also very efficient, suggesting that the investment made in the monitoring schemes may be compensated for by a lower cost in reserve acquisition

Robustness of reserve selection procedures under temporal species turnover

Complementarity-based algorithms for the selection of reserve networks emphasize the need to represent biodiversity features efficiently, but this may not be sufficient to maintain those features in the long term. Here, we use data from the Common Birds Census in Britain as an exemplar data set to determine guidelines for the selection of reserve networks which are more robust to temporal turnover in features. The extinction patterns found over the 1981-1991 interval suggest that two such guidelines are to represent species in the best sites where they occur (higher local abundance) and to give priority to the rarer species. We tested five reserve selection strategies, one which finds the minimum representation set and others which incorporate the first or both guidelines proposed. Strategies were tested in terms of their efficiency (inversely related to the total area selected) and effectiveness (inversely related to the percentage of species lost) using data on eight pairs of ten-year intervals. The minimum set strategy was always the most efficient, but suffered higher species loss than the others, suggesting that there is a trade-off between efficiency and effectiveness. A desirable compromise can be achieved by embedding the concerns about the long-term maintenance of the biodiversity features of interest in the complementarity-based algorithms

Minimal PD-sets for codes associated with the graphs Qm2, m even

Please read abstract in the article.The National Research Foundation of South Africahttp://link.springer.com/journal/2002021-12-08hj2021Mathematics and Applied Mathematic