An empirical examination of exchange-rate credibility determinants in the EMS

This paper provides empirical evidence on the determinants of exchange rate credibility under the European Monetary System (EMS). To that end, we have considered both economic variables and political factors using data of eight currencies participating in the Exchange Rate Mechanism, covering the complete EMS history (1979-1998). Our results suggest that the level of international reserves, the real interest rate and right-wing governments would have positively affected the credibility of a given central parity, while the unemployment rate and the inflation rate would have negative influenced such credibility.Credibility, Political variables, Exchange rates, European Monetary System

On the impact of exchange rate regimes on tourism

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the effect of the exchange rate arrangements on international tourism. The ambiguity of literature about the effect of exchange rate volatility contrasts with the magnitude of the impact of a common currency on trade. On the basis of a gravity equation we estimate a moderate effect of a currency union on tourism of almost 12%. Furthermore, we estimate a gravity equation for international trade, obtaining that the common currency effect on trade is reduced when tourism is introduced as a regressor. This suggests that tourism flows may contribute to explain the excessive magnitude of the estimated effect of a common currency on trade in this literature. Finally, we analyze the impact of several de facto exchange rate arrangements on tourism, finding that less flexible exchange rates promotes tourism flows.Tourism, Exchange Rate Regime, Common Currency

Revisiting Rose's common currency debate

The main objective of this research is to revisit the estimation of the effect of a common currency on international trade by applying the new methodology proposed by Helpman, Melitz and Rubistein (2008) and incorporating tourism to the theoretical framework. Rose (2000) estimates an empirical model of bilateral trade, finding a significant coefficient for a currency union variable of 1.2, suggesting an effect of currency unions on trade of over a 200%. Rose (2000)’s finding did not receive full acceptance and further research was consequently devoted to find reasons of such high effect. This still remains as a major puzzle in the International Economics. Rose and Van Wincoop (2001) hold that there may still be some omitted factors that drives countries to both participate in currency unions and trade more. In this research a gravity equation for trade is estimated controlling by international tourism.Common currency, tourism, gravity equation

'Gylbart off kynloth lande': The uninflected genitive and the group genitive in Older Scots

The present paper studies the genitive construction in Older Scots using the largest corpus available for this period: The Linguistic Atlas of Older Scots (LAOS). It focuses, on the one hand, on the uninflected genitive, analysing its frequency in the different contexts in which it is found and, on the other, on complex structures such as the split and the group genitive. The results are compared to those obtained for other varieties (Allen 1998, Myers 2009) in order to establish whether there are differences with respect to these constructions. The historical data obtained from LAOS are also used to test some of the theories and hypotheses formulated about the genitive, such as those proposed by Seppänen (1997) or Allen (1997).Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología FFI2011-2827

The Northern Subject Rule in first-person singular contexts in fourteenth-fifteenth-century Scots

The article focuses on the operation of the Northern Subject Rule in the firstperson singular in early Scots. It establishes that the first-person singular was under the scope of the NSR in the fourteenth and the fifteenth centuries, with a near-categorical operation of the Proximity-to-Subject Constraint. In addition, it reveals the strength of this constraint, which in recent literature has generally been assumed to be less robust than the Type-of-Subject Constraint. A comparison with Northern Middle English suggests that Scots was more advanced in the operation of the NSR

On the Credibility of a Target Zone: Evidence from the EMS

We provide some new evidence on the credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System. To that end, we use of several credibility indicators, analysing the complete EMS history. We also compare the prediction qualities of the different indicators, and apply them to the experience of the new ERM linking the currencies of non-euro area Member States to the euro.Exchange rates, European Monetary System.