Evaluating the business case for investment in the resilience of the tourism sector of small island developing states

Over the last decade, a number of disasters severely affected tourist destinations. At the same time, the management of disasters has shifted from a reactive, top-down approach to a more inclusive approach that seeks to proactively include the private sector in reducing the risk of disasters. Considering that a significant proportion of tourism occurs in the potentially hazardous coastal zones of Small Island Developing States (SIDS), private tourism sector stakeholders can – and maybe have to – play an active role in disaster risk reduction (DRR). Establishing the business merits associated with investment in disaster resilient measures would be necessary to support increased private sector DRR investment. This study therefore evaluated the business case for investment in the resilience of the tourism sector in SIDS. As such, it offers: 1) a greater understanding of the root causes of destination vulnerability and risk using a cross-regional, comparative case study approach; and 2) a qualitative evaluation of the business case for investment in the resilience of SIDS tourism. Semi-structured interviews with 80 private and public sector stakeholders in the Caribbean, Pacific and AIMS regions revealed that some private sector stakeholders already self-regulate based on individual evaluations of a variety of tangible and less tangible benefits. More research is needed to develop the economic and financial data that may possibly encourage greater private sector investment in DRR, as well as, create a supportive and enabling national economic context for resilient tourism investment.This Background Paper was commissioned and financially supported (award no. OBMO#51870) by the Global Assessment Report team led by Andrew Maskrey based at the Secretariat of the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland

Nonlinear and delayed impacts of climate on dengue risk in Barbados: A modelling study

Background: Over the last 5 years (2013–2017), the Caribbean region has faced an unprecedented crisis of co-occurring epidemics of febrile illness due to arboviruses transmitted by the Aedes sp. mosquito (dengue, chikungunya, and Zika). Since 2013, the Caribbean island of Barbados has experienced 3 dengue outbreaks, 1 chikungunya outbreak, and 1 Zika fever outbreak. Prior studies have demonstrated that climate variability influences arbovirus transmission and vector population dynamics in the region, indicating the potential to develop public health interventions using climate information. The aim of this study is to quantify the nonlinear and delayed effects of climate indicators, such as drought and extreme rainfall, on dengue risk in Barbados from 1999 to 2016. Methods and findings: Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) coupled with a hierarchal mixed-model framework were used to understand the exposure–lag–response association between dengue relative risk and key climate indicators, including the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and minimum temperature (Tmin). The model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework to produce probabilistic predictions of exceeding an island-specific outbreak threshold. The ability of the model to successfully detect outbreaks was assessed and compared to a baseline model, representative of standard dengue surveillance practice. Drought conditions were found to positively influence dengue relative risk at long lead times of up to 5 months, while excess rainfall increased the risk at shorter lead times between 1 and 2 months. The SPI averaged over a 6-month period (SPI-6), designed to monitor drought and extreme rainfall, better explained variations in dengue risk than monthly precipitation data measured in millimetres. Tmin was found to be a better predictor than mean and maximum temperature. Furthermore, including bidimensional exposure–lag–response functions of these indicators—rather than linear effects for individual lags—more appropriately described the climate–disease associations than traditional modelling approaches. In prediction mode, the model was successfully able to distinguish outbreaks from nonoutbreaks for most years, with an overall proportion of correct predictions (hits and correct rejections) of 86% (81%:91%) compared with 64% (58%:71%) for the baseline model. The ability of the model to predict dengue outbreaks in recent years was complicated by the lack of data on the emergence of new arboviruses, including chikungunya and Zika. Conclusion: We present a modelling approach to infer the risk of dengue outbreaks given the cumulative effect of climate variations in the months leading up to an outbreak. By combining the dengue prediction model with climate indicators, which are routinely monitored and forecasted by the Regional Climate Centre (RCC) at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), probabilistic dengue outlooks could be included in the Caribbean Health-Climatic Bulletin, issued on a quarterly basis to provide climate-smart decision-making guidance for Caribbean health practitioners. This flexible modelling approach could be extended to model the risk of dengue and other arboviruses in the Caribbean region

Building a framework for process-oriented evaluation of Regional Climate Outlook Forums

In many regions around the world, Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) provide seasonal climate information and forecasts to decision-makers at regional and national levels. Despite having two decades of experience, the forums have not been systematically monitored or evaluated. To address this gap, and to better inform nascent and widespread efforts in climate services, the authors propose a process-oriented evaluation framework derived from literature on decision support and climate communication around the production and use of scientific information.The authors apply this framework to a case study of the Caribbean RCOF (CariCOF), where they have been engaged in a collaborative effort to integrate climate information and decision processes to enhance regional climate resilience. The authors’ examination of the CariCOF shows an evolution toward the use of more advanced and more diverse climate products, as well as greater awareness of user feedback. It also reveals shortfalls of the CariCOF, including a lack of diverse stakeholder participation, a need for better understanding of best practices to tailor information, undeveloped market research of climate products, insufficient experimentation and vetting of communication mechanisms, and the absence of a way to steward a diverse network of regional actors. The authors’ analysis also provides insight that allowed for improvements in the climate services framework to include mechanisms to respond to changing needs and conditions. The authors’ process-oriented framework can serve as a starting point for evaluating RCOFs and other organizations charged with the provision of climate services

Building resilience to mosquito-borne diseases in the Caribbean.

Small island developing states in the Caribbean are among the most vulnerable countries on the planet to climate variability and climate change. In the last 3 decades, the Caribbean region has undergone frequent and intense heat waves, storms, floods, and droughts. This has had a detrimental impact on population health and well-being, including an increase in infectious disease outbreaks. Recent advances in climate science have enhanced our ability to anticipate hydrometeorological hazards and associated public health challenges. Here, we discuss progress towards bridging the gap between climate science and public health decision-making in the Caribbean to build health system resilience to extreme climatic events. We focus on the development of climate services to help manage mosquito-transmitted disease epidemics. There are numerous areas of ongoing biological research aimed at better understanding the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases. Here, we emphasise additional factors that affect our ability to operationalise this biological understanding. We highlight a lack of financial resources, technical expertise, data sharing, and formalised partnerships between climate and health communities as major limiting factors to developing sustainable climate services for health. Recommendations include investing in integrated climate, health and mosquito surveillance systems, building regional and local human resource capacities, and designing national and regional cross-sectoral policies and national action plans. This will contribute towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and maximising regional development partnerships and co-benefits for improved health and well-being in the Caribbean

Co-learning during the co-creation of a dengue early warning system for the health sector in Barbados

Over the past decade, the Caribbean region has been challenged by compound climate and health hazards, including tropical storms, extreme heat and droughts and overlapping epidemics of mosquito-borne diseases, including dengue, chikungunya and Zika. Early warning systems (EWS) are a key climate change adaptation strategy for the health sector. An EWS can integrate climate information in forecasting models to predict the risk of disease outbreaks several weeks or months in advance. In this article, we share our experiences of co-learning during the process of co-creating a dengue EWS for the health sector in Barbados, and we discuss barriers to implementation as well as key opportunities. This process has involved bringing together health and climate practitioners with transdisciplinary researchers to jointly identify needs and priorities, assess available data, co-create an early warning tool, gather feedback via national and regional consultations and conduct trainings. Implementation is ongoing and our team continues to be committed to a long-term process of collaboration. Developing strong partnerships, particularly between the climate and health sectors in Barbados, has been a critical part of the research and development. In many countries, the national climate and health sectors have not worked together in a sustained or formal manner. This collaborative process has purposefully pushed us out of our comfort zone, challenging us to venture beyond our institutional and disciplinary silos. Through the co-creation of the EWS, we anticipate that the Barbados health system will be better able to mainstream climate information into decision-making processes using tailored tools, such as epidemic forecast reports, risk maps and climate-health bulletins, ultimately increasing the resilience of the health system

Co-developing climate services for public health: Stakeholder needs and perceptions for the prevention and control of Aedes-transmitted diseases in the Caribbean.

BACKGROUND: Small island developing states (SIDS) in the Caribbean region are challenged with managing the health outcomes of a changing climate. Health and climate sectors have partnered to co-develop climate services to improve the management of emerging arboviral diseases such as dengue fever, for example, through the development of climate-driven early warning systems. The objective of this study was to identify health and climate stakeholder perceptions and needs in the Caribbean, with respect to the development of climate services for arboviruses. METHODS: Stakeholders included public decision makers and practitioners from the climate and health sectors at the regional (Caribbean) level and from the countries of Dominica and Barbados. From April to June 2017, we conducted interviews (n = 41), surveys (n = 32), and national workshops with stakeholders. Survey responses were tabulated, and audio recordings were transcribed and analyzed using qualitative coding to identify responses by research topic, country/region, and sector. RESULTS: Health practitioners indicated that their jurisdiction is currently experiencing an increased risk of arboviral diseases associated with climate variability, and most anticipated that this risk will increase in the future. National health sectors reported financial limitations and a lack of technical expertise in geographic information systems (GIS), statistics, and modeling, which constrained their ability to implement climate services for arboviruses. National climate sectors were constrained by a lack of personnel. Stakeholders highlighted the need to strengthen partnerships with the private sector, academia, and civil society. They identified a gap in local research on climate-arbovirus linkages, which constrained the ability of the health sector to make informed decisions. Strategies to strengthen the climate-health partnership included a top-down approach by engaging senior leadership, multi-lateral collaboration agreements, national committees on climate and health, and shared spaces of dialogue. Mechanisms for mainstreaming climate services for health operations to control arboviruses included climatic-health bulletins and an online GIS platform that would allow for regional data sharing and the generation of spatiotemporal epidemic forecasts. Stakeholders identified a 3-month forecast of arboviral illness as the optimal time frame for an epidemic forecast. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the creation of interdisciplinary and intersectoral 'communities of practice' and the co-design of climate services for the Caribbean public health sector. By fostering the effective use of climate information within health policy, research and practice, nations will have greater capacity to adapt to a changing climate

Behavioural links and limits of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation: demand and supply-side evidence from Caribbean coastal tourism

Although the treatment of disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) as distinct and disparate processes is increasingly being questioned, the behavioural links and limits of DRM and CCA have received limited research attention. This thesis offers a demand and supply-side analysis of this research problem in one of the world’s most disaster prone, climate sensitive and tourism dependent regions - the Caribbean. The research focuses on two major knowledge gaps. The first research issue (RI) addresses the lack of studies that examine the similarities and differences of the DRM and CCA decision-making process of tourism suppliers (coastal hoteliers and policy-makers). This research conducts this type of assessment in relation to a sample of three DRM measures, as well as, four CCA strategies, namely, the Protection, Accommodation, Retreat and Diversification (PARD) strategies. The second research issue (RI 2) investigates how DRM and CCA perception gaps between demand and supply-side stakeholders may inhibit coherent action on managing disaster risk to advance CCA. To investigate these issues, the research used a sequential application of Kates’ (1971) Adjustment Process Control (APC) model, the Destination Choice Set approach originally advanced in tourism by Woodside and his colleagues (1977), and Ajzen’s (1985) Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). The research programme adopted a multi-stage, mixed methods strategy made up of a series of four independent yet inter-related primary studies that are qualitative or quantitative in nature. Evidence drawn from over 500 respondents in ten Caribbean destinations supports the findings, conclusions and research implications. Regarding RI 1, the research finds that there are three behavioural links and five behavioural limits of supplier DRM and CCA decision-making. Regarding RI 2, the research finds that a DRM perception gap still exists between demand and supply-side stakeholders since Drabek’s first findings of a perception gap over 20 years ago. Interestingly, the dynamic driving this gap is much different, with tourists having lower perceptions of the importance of DRM considerations than their hosts. Importantly, the research also finds that there is a CCA perception gap between suppliers and tourists. Regarding RI 1, the research concludes that present-day DRM processes are likely to limit future CCA prospects to incremental versus transformational forms of adaptation. Regarding RI 2, it concludes that social pressure to adopt particular DRM and CCA measures will play a central role in suppliers’ present and future protective decision-making. In this context, miscalculations across groups are likely. This research makes important contributions to theory and methodology, in addition to having implications for policy and practice. The first theoretical contribution of this work is related to the conceptualisation and use of the Adjustment Choice Set (ACS) approach, a new analytical approach to measure and describe the scope, prevalence and categorisation of DRM and CCA measures. The second theoretical contribution revolves around the development and testing of a new Generalised Model of Tourism Supplier Protective Decision-making. The new model describes the influence of climatic and non-climatic factors at various stages of DRM and CCA decision-making, and has the potential for explanatory power, especially in the evaluation of intention to engage in protective behaviour. The research methodology demonstrated that the use of inter-linking, multi-disciplinary models is an effective approach to understanding the complex nature of DRM and CCA decision-making. This approach overcomes the inherent limits encountered in trying to use individual models in isolation and exploits the potential that the use of multiple decision theories together offered to explain a wider range of behaviour across an expanded range of contexts. Several policy and practice implications for DRM and CCA interventions arise from the research results. For example, the demand and supply-side perception gap analysis is insightful in identifying DRM and CCA measures that may be of benefit to destinations in the short and long-term and are perceived well by tourists. In this way, the results of this research enable hoteliers and policy-makers to move away from ‘blanket adjustment strategies’ to more specific measures that are ‘win-win-win’ across hoteliers, policy-makers and tourists. In addition, knowledge of the determinants to engage in protective behaviour is particularly useful for policy-makers to provide favourable conditions in support of supplier adoption of DRM and CCA measures. These contributions advance not only our understanding of supply-side protective behaviour but also enhance efforts to forecast and align the supply and consumption of DRM and CCA measures. Future research should prioritise the further testing of the ACS approach, as well as, the new Generalised Model of Tourism Supplier Protective Decision-making across different contexts

Competing visions of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation: Evidence and implications from Caribbean coastal tourism

Presentation made at the Third International Climate Change Adaption Conference 12-16 May, 2014

Examining the nexus between disaster risk management and climate change adaptation: Evidence from Caribbean coastal tourism

The IRDR Conference 2014 encouraged researchers, politicians, practitioners, funding agencies and disaster risk reduction-related organisations to discuss and develop ways to better integrate disaster risk science into policy, practice and sustainability. The format of the Conference was a series of plenary sessions dealing with the challenges of implementing integrated research, inter-organisational collaboration, and policy, as well as the interaction with sustainable development activities. The sessions will address the range of environmental hazards, vulnerability, and sustainability in both global and local contexts