Economy-wide effects of El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Mexico and the role of improved forecasting and technological change

Weather fluctuations, such as those caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), add to the riskiness associated with agricultural production. Improved predictive capacity may help ameliorate negative impacts of climate and weather shocks on agriculture, but it is possible that the benefits of an improved forecast will be distributed unevenly. In particular, poor farmers may not have access to improved forecasts, or they may not have the means to adapt to new weather information. This paper uses a stochastic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the distributive effects of improved forecasting of ENSO in Mexico. The particular focus is on agriculture, one of the most vulnerable sectors in the face of ENSO, as well as a sector which provides income to many of the country's poorest households. The model is used to investigate the responsiveness of various sectors of the economy under different degrees of improved predictive capacity and improvements in agricultural technology....The results show that while agricultural losses are small as a share of the overall economy, improved forecasting techniques can eliminate these lossesStochastic analysis ,Agriculture Environmental aspects Mexico ,Climatic changes Models ,Agricultural productivity ,Forecasting ,TMD ,

A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are used widely in policy analysis. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to and facilitate the use of CGE models. The paper includes a detailed presentation of a “standard” CGE model (an equation-by-equation description) and its required database. It incorporates features developed in recent years in research projects conducted at IFPRI. These features, which are of particular importance in developing countries, include household consumption of non-marketed (or “home”) commodities, explicit treatment of transaction costs for commodities that enter the market sphere, and a separation between producing activities and commodities that permits any activity to produce multiple commodities and any commodity to be produced by multiple activities. The paper discusses the implementation of the model in GAMS (the General Algebraic Modeling System) and is accompanied by a self-extracting zip file, which includes the GAMS files for the model, sample databases, simulations, solution reports, and a SAM aggregation program. Although the paper provides a standardized framework for analysis, the analyst is not forced to make “one-size-fits-all” assumptions. The GAMS code is written in a manner that gives the analyst considerable flexibility in model specification.Household consumption ,economic policies ,mathematical models ,TMD ,

Estimating income mobility in Colombia using maximum entropy econometrics.:

Income mobility can be viewed as a first-order Markov process, with a matrix of transition probabilities which measure how individuals move from an income status in time t to a new status in time t+1. Direct estimation of transition matrices is difficult, since time series panel data are unavailable and limited data on the distribution of income do not suffice to determine the coefficients mathematically, let alone provide enough degrees of freedom for estimation. In this paper, we show that maximum entropy econometrics offers a feasible way to estimate transition matrices using distributional data from Colombia. Using a cross-entropy estimation method, we make efficient use of prior information about the structure of the transition matrices and how they vary with age. The approach is very flexible, allowing the use of “information” in a variety of forms such as inequality constraints, errors in measurement, and prior estimates. Under weak assumptions about the error generation process, we can derive test statistics based on the likelihood ratio measuring the significance of the estimation. The model fits the data well in that the predicted and actual distributions for period t+1 are close. The results show that there is a large degree of upward mobility in Colombia, especially at the bottom of the income distribution and for the younger age cohorts.Income distribution, Econometric models., Colombia. ,

Pre-service Teachers’ Perspectives on Teaching Scripture in Primary Religious Education

One of the challenges for pre-service teachers in Catholic primary schools is the teaching of scripture stories within Religious Education. Research states that Catholic teachers in the 21st century require tertiary training in teaching the Religious Education curriculum and they need to learn effective strategies to teach specific content in this learning area, including scripture. Godly Play includes an approach to teaching scripture that was intended for use in parish and hospital settings. Godly Play is now promoted by Catholic Education Western Australia as a meaningful approach for influencing the teaching of scripture in RE in early childhood and primary classrooms. This paper reports on a research project that sought to ascertain pre-service teachers’ perspectives about Godly Play as a strategy for teaching scripture stories in RE in primary schools. Qualitative surveys were employed to collect pre-service teachers’ perspectives of Godly Play prior to and again after learning about Godly Play as one strategy for teaching scripture. Survey data were analysed by question through a process of thematic coding. The results from these surveys provide insight into pre-service teachers’ confidence and pedagogical perspectives with regards to the teaching of scripture. Specifically, findings provide insight into pre-service teachers’ perspectives of the storytelling component of Godly Play as an effective strategy to equip them with the confidence, knowledge and ability to share biblical texts with primary-aged children in RE classes. Findings from this research have implications for pre-service teachers seeking employment in Catholic schools. Additionally, implications for Catholic education more broadly are discussed as well as considerations for future research

From theory to practice : The National Theatre of Scotland, 1999-2009

The National Theatre of Scotland is a unique, non building-based, commissioning and producing cultural institution, established in the wake of the devolution of the Scottish Parliament. This thesis explores how the NTS responded to its ‘national’ remit within the context of both post devolution Scotland and an increasingly globalized world in which the significance and boundaries of the ‘nation’ are often ambiguous and contested. The public sphere in the United Kingdom has always held a tension between the interweaving national identities of its four constituent nations. However, the constitutional changes since 1999, have allowed the possibility for a more distinctive public sphere to be defined in Scotland. This thesis examines how the NTS, over a relatively short period of time, has played a role in helping to mark out and define the nature of this new national public sphere and argues that the company was particularly well placed to accommodate and reflect heterogeneous imagining’s of identity and respond to contemporary expressions of belonging. However, the thesis also charts changes to the company during these early years and, most significantly, notes the potential effect that the change from arms length to direct government funding might have on the company’s long-term development. The thesis argues that direct funding aligns the arts too closely to political agendas rather than supporting artistic freedom and expression. As such, rather than helping to mark out a democratically representative and critical public sphere in Scotland, the NTS is in danger of becoming entangled by competing conceptions and perceptions of nationhood in Scotland