Nominalist Heuristics and Economic Theory

This paper introduces a new theoretic entity, a nominalist heuristic, defined as a focus on prominent numbers, indices or ratios. Abstractions used in the evaluation stage of decision making typically involve nominalist heuristics that are incompatible with expected utility theory which excludes the evaluation stage, and are also incompatible with prospect theory which assumes that, while the evaluation procedure can involve systematic mistakes, the overall decision situation is nevertheless sufficiently simple: 1) for economists and psychologists to identify what is a mistake, and 2) to be compatible with maximisation. But in the typical complex situation giving rise to nominalist heuristics neither 1) nor 2) hold, and therefore what is required is a fundamentally different class of models that allow for the progressive anticipated changes in knowledge ahead faced under risk and uncertainty, namely models under the umbrella of SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory. A sequel paper. Pope et al 2009b, shows field and laboratory evidence of heuristics in the form of prominent numbers entering exchange rate determination.nominalism, money illusion, heuristic, unpredictability, experiment, SKAT the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory, prominent numbers, prominent indices, prominent ratios, equality, historical benchmarks, complexity, decision costs, evaluation

Prognostic Reasoner based adaptive power management system for a more electric aircraft

This research work presents a novel approach that addresses the concept of an adaptive power management system design and development framed in the Prognostics and Health Monitoring(PHM) perspective of an Electrical power Generation and distribution system(EPGS).PHM algorithms were developed to detect the health status of EPGS components which can accurately predict the failures and also able to calculate the Remaining Useful Life(RUL), and in many cases reconfigure for the identified system and subsystem faults. By introducing these approach on Electrical power Management system controller, we are gaining a few minutes lead time to failures with an accurate prediction horizon on critical systems and subsystems components that may introduce catastrophic secondary damages including loss of aircraft. The warning time on critical components and related system reconfiguration must permits safe return to landing as the minimum criteria and would enhance safety. A distributed architecture has been developed for the dynamic power management for electrical distribution system by which all the electrically supplied loads can be effectively controlled.A hybrid mathematical model based on the Direct-Quadrature (d-q) axis transformation of the generator have been formulated for studying various structural and parametric faults. The different failure modes were generated by injecting faults into the electrical power system using a fault injection mechanism. The data captured during these studies have been recorded to form a “Failure Database” for electrical system. A hardware in loop experimental study were carried out to validate the power management algorithm with FPGA-DSP controller. In order to meet the reliability requirements a Tri-redundant electrical power management system based on DSP and FPGA has been develope

Prominent Numbers, Indices and Ratios in Exchange Rate Determination and Financial Crashes: in Economists’ Models, in the Field and in the Laboratory

The prior paper in this sequel, Pope (2009) introduced the concept of a nominalist heuristic, defined as a focus on prominent numbers, indices or ratios. In this paper the concept is used to show three things in how scientists and practitioners analyse and evaluate to decide (conclude). First, in constructing theories such as purchasing power and interest parity to predict exchange rates and to advocate floating exchange rates, economists unwittingly employ nominalist heuristics. Second, nominalist heuristics have influenced actual exchange rates through the centuries, and this finding is replicated in the laboratory. Third, nominalist heuristics are incompatible with expected utility theory which excludes the evaluation stage, and are also incompatible with prospect theory which assumes that, while the evaluation stage can involve systematic mistakes, the overall decision situation is ultra simple. It is so simple that: a) economists and psychologists can mechanically model and identify what is a mistake, and b) decision makers can maximise. However, contrary to prospect theory, in the typical complex situation, neither a) nor b) holds. Assuming that a) and b) hold has resulted in the 1988 crisis from applying the Black Scholes formulae to forward exchange rates and contributed to sequel financial crises including that of 2007-2009. What is required is a fundamentally different class of models that allow for the progressive anticipated changes in knowledge ahead faced under risk and uncertainty, namely models under the umbrella of SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory. The paper’s findings support a single world currency rather than variable unpredictable exchange rates subjected to the vagaries of how prominent numbers, ratios and indices influence events via the models of scientists and practitioners.nominalism, money illusion, heuristic, unpredictability, experiment, SKAT the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory, prominent numbers, prominent indices, prominent ratios, transparent policy, nominal equality, historical benchmarks, complexity, decision costs, evaluation, maximisation, Black Scholes, Lehmann Brothers, sub-prime crisis, central bank swaps

Experimental Evidence on the Benefits of Eliminating Exchange Rate Uncertainties and Why Expected Utility Theory causes Economists to Miss Them

Conclusions favourable to flexible exchange rates typically accord with expected utility theory in ignoring the costs that exchange rate uncertainty generates for governments, central banks, firms and unions in: (i) choosing among available acts; and (ii) existing until learning the outcome of the chosen act. Allowing for these costs involves the stages of knowledge ahead framework, Pope (1983, 1995, 2005). A laboratory experiment suggests that (i) and (ii) together outweigh the advantages of having a flexible exchange rate as an additional instrument for managing a country’s employment, interest rate, price level and international competitiveness goalsexperiment

Managed Floats to Damp Shocks like 1982-5 and 2006-9: Field and Laboratory Evidence for Chinese Interest in a Single World Currency

This paper’s field evidence is: (1) many official sectors rapidly forget the damage of the 1982-85 exchange rate liquidity crisis and reverted to what caused that crisis, namely a closed economy clean floats perspective; and (2) the 2006-2008/9 exchange rate liquidity shock would have been more drastic but for central bank currency swaps. This evidence is bolstered by a laboratory experiment that incorporates more aspects of real world complexity and more different sorts of official and private sector agents than are feasible in econometric or algebraic investigations and employs a new central bank cooperation-conflict model of exchange rate determination , and is within an umbrella theory of Pope, namely SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory. SKAT allows for risk effects from stages omitted in normal models, including those from (a) difficulties of agents in evaluating alternatives in a complex environment in which the assumed maximization of expected utility is impossible; and (b) preference for safety and reliability is not trivialized. Our joint field plus laboratory evidence indicates that official sectors should maintain an international exchange rate oriented perspective, or better yet, a single world currency as recommended by Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the People’s Bank of China. To avoid rapid forgetting of havoc from isolationist clean floats and the value of stable exchange rates, a new syllabus, as under the SKAT umbrella, is fundamental in the education of official sector members in order to furnish them with a coherent alternative intellectual framework to current university education that excludes liquidity crises.clean float, managed float, IMF imposed conditions, exchange rate regime, exchange rate volatility, experiment, SKAT the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory, monetary policy, transparent policy, exchange rate shocks, central bank cooperation, central bank conflict

Molecular mechanism of Endosulfan action in mammals

Endosulfan is a broad-spectrum organochlorine pesticide, speculated to be detrimental to human health in areas of active exposure. However, the molecular insights to its mechanism of action remain poorly understood. In two recent studies, our group investigated the physiological and molecular aspects of endosulfan action using in vitro, ex vivo and in vivo analyses. The results showed that apart from reducing fertility levels in male animals, Endosulfan induced DNA damage that triggers compromised DNA damage response leading to undesirable processing of broken DNA ends. In this review, pesticide use especially of Endosulfan in the Indian scenario is summarized and the importance of our findings, especially the rationalized use of pesticides in the future, is emphasized

Minimal and complete set of descriptors for IR-absorption spectra of liquid H2–D2 mixtures

The IR spectra of liquid hydrogen isotopologues (Q$_{2}$ = H$_{2}$, D$_{2}$, T$_{2}$, HD, HT, DT) are dominated by the interaction induced absorption. Therefore, the complexity tremendously increases with the number of different isotopologues in the sample. As we aim for a system independent calibration of IR absorption spectroscopy against all six isotopologues and three ortho–para ratios, we need a minimal and complete set of descriptors to predict the spectra and to decrease the needed calibration effort. For this, we grouped the absorption lines into three groups: absorption on monomers, phonons, and molecular dimers. In particular, molecular dimers contribute to the absolute number of absorption lines in the spectra of mixed isotopologues. To develop and test the set of descriptors, we make use of three spectra: a pure H$_{2}$ sample, a pure D$_{2}$ sample, and a mixed H$_{2}$–D$_{2}$ sample. We show a detailed analysis of these three spectra in the first and second vibrational branch in the range from 2000 cm$^{-1}$ to 9000 cm$^{-1}$. The set of descriptors found within this work can be used to identify and predict all lines in this range for liquid H$_{2}$–D$_{2}$ mixtures

Minimal and complete set of descriptors for IR-absorption spectra of liquid H2–D2 mixtures

The IR spectra of liquid hydrogen isotopologues (Q$_{2}$ = H$_{2}$, D$_{2}$, T$_{2}$, HD, HT, DT) are dominated by the interaction induced absorption. Therefore, the complexity tremendously increases with the number of different isotopologues in the sample. As we aim for a system independent calibration of IR absorption spectroscopy against all six isotopologues and three ortho–para ratios, we need a minimal and complete set of descriptors to predict the spectra and to decrease the needed calibration effort. For this, we grouped the absorption lines into three groups: absorption on monomers, phonons, and molecular dimers. In particular, molecular dimers contribute to the absolute number of absorption lines in the spectra of mixed isotopologues. To develop and test the set of descriptors, we make use of three spectra: a pure H$_{2}$ sample, a pure D$_{2}$ sample, and a mixed H$_{2}$–D$_{2}$ sample. We show a detailed analysis of these three spectra in the first and second vibrational branch in the range from 2000 cm$^{-1}$ to 9000 cm$^{-1}$. The set of descriptors found within this work can be used to identify and predict all lines in this range for liquid H$_{2}$–D$_{2}$ mixtures