40 research outputs found
Practical large-scale spatio-temporal modeling of particulate matter concentrations
The last two decades have seen intense scientific and regulatory interest in
the health effects of particulate matter (PM). Influential epidemiological
studies that characterize chronic exposure of individuals rely on monitoring
data that are sparse in space and time, so they often assign the same exposure
to participants in large geographic areas and across time. We estimate monthly
PM during 1988--2002 in a large spatial domain for use in studying health
effects in the Nurses' Health Study. We develop a conceptually simple
spatio-temporal model that uses a rich set of covariates. The model is used to
estimate concentrations of for the full time period and
for a subset of the period. For the earlier part of the period, 1988--1998, few
monitors were operating, so we develop a simple extension to the
model that represents conditionally on model predictions.
In the epidemiological analysis, model predictions of are more
strongly associated with health effects than when using simpler approaches to
estimate exposure. Our modeling approach supports the application in estimating
both fine-scale and large-scale spatial heterogeneity and capturing space--time
interaction through the use of monthly-varying spatial surfaces. At the same
time, the model is computationally feasible, implementable with standard
software, and readily understandable to the scientific audience. Despite
simplifying assumptions, the model has good predictive performance and
uncertainty characterization.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS204 the Annals of
Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Accelerometer and GPS Data to Analyze Built Environments and Physical Activity
Purpose: Most built environment studies have quantified characteristics of the areas around participants' homes. However, the environmental exposures for physical activity (PA) are spatially dynamic rather than static. Thus, merged accelerometer and global positioning system (GPS) data were utilized to estimate associations between the built environment and PA among adults. Methods: Participants (N = 142) were recruited on trails in Massachusetts and wore an accelerometer and GPS unit for 1-4 days. Two binary outcomes were created: moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA vs. light PA-to-sedentary); and light-to-vigorous PA (LVPA vs. sedentary). Five built environment variables were created within 50-meter buffers around GPS points: population density, street density, land use mix (LUM), greenness, and walkability index. Generalized linear mixed models were fit to examine associations between environmental variables and both outcomes, adjusting for demographic covariates. Results: Overall, in the fully adjusted models, greenness was positively associated with MVPA and LVPA (odds ratios [ORs] = 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03, 1.30 and 1.25, 95% CI = 1.12, 1.41, respectively). In contrast, street density and LUM were negatively associated with MVPA (ORs = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.67, 0.71 and 0.87, 95% CI = 0.78, 0.97, respectively) and LVPA (ORs = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.77, 0.81 and 0.81, 95% CI = 0.74, 0.90, respectively). Negative associations of population density and walkability with both outcomes reached statistical significance, yet the effect sizes were small. Conclusions: Concurrent monitoring of activity with accelerometers and GPS units allowed us to investigate relationships between objectively measured built environment around GPS points and minute-by-minute PA. Negative relationships between street density and LUM and PA contrast evidence from most built environment studies in adults. However, direct comparisons should be made with caution since most previous studies have focused on spatially fixed buffers around home locations, rather than the precise locations where PA occurs
Spatio-temporal modeling of particulate air pollution in the conterminous United States using geographic and meteorological predictors
Background: Exposure to atmospheric particulate matter (PM) remains an important public health concern, although it remains difficult to quantify accurately across large geographic areas with sufficiently high spatial resolution. Recent epidemiologic analyses have demonstrated the importance of spatially- and temporally-resolved exposure estimates, which show larger PM-mediated health effects as compared to nearest monitor or county-specific ambient concentrations. Methods: We developed generalized additive mixed models that describe regional and small-scale spatial and temporal gradients (and corresponding uncertainties) in monthly mass concentrations of fine (PM2.5), inhalable (PM10), and coarse mode particle mass (PM2.5–10) for the conterminous United States (U.S.). These models expand our previously developed models for the Northeastern and Midwestern U.S. by virtue of their larger spatial domain, their inclusion of an additional 5 years of PM data to develop predictions through 2007, and their use of refined geographic covariates for population density and point-source PM emissions. Covariate selection and model validation were performed using 10-fold cross-validation (CV). Results: The PM2.5 models had high predictive accuracy (CV R2=0.77 for both 1988–1998 and 1999–2007). While model performance remained strong, the predictive ability of models for PM10 (CV R2=0.58 for both 1988–1998 and 1999–2007) and PM2.5–10 (CV R2=0.46 and 0.52 for 1988–1998 and 1999–2007, respectively) was somewhat lower. Regional variation was found in the effects of geographic and meteorological covariates. Models generally performed well in both urban and rural areas and across seasons, though predictive performance varied somewhat by region (CV R2=0.81, 0.81, 0.83, 0.72, 0.69, 0.50, and 0.60 for the Northeast, Midwest, Southeast, Southcentral, Southwest, Northwest, and Central Plains regions, respectively, for PM2.5 from 1999–2007). Conclusions: Our models provide estimates of monthly-average outdoor concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, and PM2.5–10 with high spatial resolution and low bias. Thus, these models are suitable for estimating chronic exposures of populations living in the conterminous U.S. from 1988 to 2007
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Particulate Matter Air Pollution Exposure, Distance to Road, and Incident Lung Cancer in the Nurses’ Health Study Cohort
Background: A body of literature has suggested an elevated risk of lung cancer associated with particulate matter and traffic-related pollutants. Objective: We examined the relation of lung cancer incidence with long-term residential exposures to ambient particulate matter and residential distance to roadway, as a proxy for traffic-related exposures. Methods: For participants in the Nurses’ Health Study, a nationwide prospective cohort of women, we estimated 72-month average exposures to PM2.5, PM2.5–10, and PM10 and residential distance to road. Follow-up for incident cases of lung cancer occurred from 1994 through 2010. Cox proportional hazards models were adjusted for potential confounders. Effect modification by smoking status was examined. Results: During 1,510,027 person-years, 2,155 incident cases of lung cancer were observed among 103,650 participants. In fully adjusted models, a 10-μg/m3 increase in 72-month average PM10 [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.04; 95% CI: 0.95, 1.14], PM2.5 (HR = 1.06; 95% CI: 0.91, 1.25), or PM2.5–10 (HR = 1.05; 95% CI: 0.92, 1.20) was positively associated with lung cancer. When the cohort was restricted to never-smokers and to former smokers who had quit at least 10 years before, the associations appeared to increase and were strongest for PM2.5 (PM10: HR = 1.15; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.32; PM2.5: HR = 1.37; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.77; PM2.5–10: HR = 1.11; 95% CI: 0.90, 1.37). Results were most elevated when restricted to the most prevalent subtype, adenocarcinomas. Risks with roadway proximity were less consistent. Conclusions: Our findings support those from other studies indicating increased risk of incident lung cancer associated with ambient PM exposures, especially among never- and long-term former smokers. Citation: Puett RC, Hart JE, Yanosky JD, Spiegelman D, Wang M, Fisher JA, Hong B, Laden F. 2014. Particulate matter air pollution exposure, distance to road, and incident lung cancer in the Nurses’ Health Study Cohort. Environ Health Perspect 122:926–932; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.130749
Evaluating geographic imputation approaches for zip code level data: an application to a study of pediatric diabetes
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is increasing interest in the study of place effects on health, facilitated in part by geographic information systems. Incomplete or missing address information reduces geocoding success. Several geographic imputation methods have been suggested to overcome this limitation. Accuracy evaluation of these methods can be focused at the level of individuals and at higher group-levels (e.g., spatial distribution).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We evaluated the accuracy of eight geo-imputation methods for address allocation from ZIP codes to census tracts at the individual and group level. The spatial apportioning approaches underlying the imputation methods included four fixed (deterministic) and four random (stochastic) allocation methods using land area, total population, population under age 20, and race/ethnicity as weighting factors. Data included more than 2,000 geocoded cases of diabetes mellitus among youth aged 0-19 in four U.S. regions. The imputed distribution of cases across tracts was compared to the true distribution using a chi-squared statistic.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At the individual level, population-weighted (total or under age 20) fixed allocation showed the greatest level of accuracy, with correct census tract assignments averaging 30.01% across all regions, followed by the race/ethnicity-weighted random method (23.83%). The true distribution of cases across census tracts was that 58.2% of tracts exhibited no cases, 26.2% had one case, 9.5% had two cases, and less than 3% had three or more. This distribution was best captured by random allocation methods, with no significant differences (p-value > 0.90). However, significant differences in distributions based on fixed allocation methods were found (p-value < 0.0003).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Fixed imputation methods seemed to yield greatest accuracy at the individual level, suggesting use for studies on area-level environmental exposures. Fixed methods result in artificial clusters in single census tracts. For studies focusing on spatial distribution of disease, random methods seemed superior, as they most closely replicated the true spatial distribution. When selecting an imputation approach, researchers should consider carefully the study aims.</p
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Effect Modification of Long‐Term Air Pollution Exposures and the Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Disease in US Women
Background: Ambient air pollution exposures have been frequently linked to cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. However, less is known about the populations most susceptible to these adverse effects. Methods and Results: We assessed the associations of long‐term particulate matter (PM) exposures with incident CVD in a nationwide cohort of 114 537 women in the Nurses’ Health Study, and performed analyses to identify subpopulations at the greatest risk. Residential address level time‐varying monthly exposures to PM 2.5, PM 10, and PM 2.5 to 10 microns in diameter were estimated from spatio‐temporal prediction models. In multivariable models, increases in all size fractions of PM were associated with small, but not statistically significant, increased risks of total CVD, coronary heart disease, and stroke. PM‐associated CVD risks were statistically significantly higher among women with diabetes as compared to those without (P‐for‐interaction <0.0001 for PM 10 and PM 2.5 and 0.007 for PM 2.5 to 10). For each 10 μg/m3 increase in 12‐month average PM 2.5, PM 2.5 to 10, and PM 10, the multivariable adjusted hazard ratios were 1.44 (95% CI: 1.23 to 1.68), 1.17 (95% CI: 1.05 to 1.30), and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.10 to 1.28) among women with diabetes. There were also suggestions of higher risks among older (≥70 years) women, the obese, and those living in the Northeast and South. Smoking status and family history did not consistently modify the association between PM and CVD, and risks were most elevated with exposures in the previous 12 months. Conclusions: In this nationwide cohort, women with diabetes were identified as the subpopulation most sensitive to the adverse cardiovascular health effects of PM
Relationships Between the Built Environment and Walking and Weight Status Among Older Women in Three U.S. States
There are few studies of built environment associations with physical activity and weight status among older women in large geographic areas that use individual residential buffers to define environmental exposures. Among 23,434 women (70.0±6.9 years; range = 57-85) in 3 states, relationships between objective built environment variables and meeting physical activity recommendations via walking and weight status were examined. Differences in associations by population density and state were explored in stratified models. Population density (odds ratio (OR)=1.04 [1.02,1.07]), intersection density (ORs=1.18-1.28), and facility density (ORs=1.01-1.53) were positively associated with walking. Density of physical activity facilities was inversely associated with overweight/obesity (OR=0.69 [0.49, 0.96]). The strongest associations between facility density variables and both outcomes were found among women from higher population density areas. There was no clear pattern of differences in associations across states. Among older women, relationships between accessible facilities and walking may be most important in more densely populated settings
Particulate Matter Exposures, Mortality, and Cardiovascular Disease in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study
Background: The association of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular outcomes with air pollution exposures has been well established in the literature. The number of studies examining chronic exposures in cohorts is growing, with more recent studies conducted among women finding risk estimates of greater magnitude. Questions remain regarding sex differences in the relationship of chronic particulate matter (PM) exposures with mortality and cardiovascular outcomes
Chronic Fine and Coarse Particulate Exposure, Mortality, and Coronary Heart Disease in the Nurses’ Health Study
Background: The relationship of fine particulate matter < 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) air pollution with mortality and cardiovascular disease is well established, with more recent long-term studies reporting larger effect sizes than earlier long-term studies. Some studies have suggested the coarse fraction, particles between 2.5 and 10 μm (PM10–2.5), may also be important. With respect to mortality and cardiovascular events, questions remain regarding the relative strength of effect sizes for chronic exposure to fine and coarse particles. Objectives: We examined the relationship of chronic PM2.5 and PM10–2.5 exposures with all-cause mortality and fatal and nonfatal incident coronary heart disease (CHD), adjusting for time-varying covariates. Methods: The current study included women from the Nurses’ Health Study living in metropolitan areas of the northeastern and midwestern United States. Follow-up was from 1992 to 2002. We used geographic information systems–based spatial smoothing models to estimate monthly exposures at each participant’s residence. Results: We found increased risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR), 1.26; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02–1.54] and fatal CHD (HR = 2.02; 95% CI, 1.07–3.78) associated with each 10-μg/m3 increase in annual PM2.5 exposure. The association between fatal CHD and PM10–2.5 was weaker. Conclusions: Our findings contribute to growing evidence that chronic PM2.5 exposure is associated with risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality