March 2011 Physical Indicators Workshop Summary Report

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) convened a workshop on Physical Climate Indicators from 29-30 March 2011, as part of a series on Monitoring Climate Change and its Impacts . The overarching goal of this workshop was to identify a few broad categories of potential physical climate indicators using a set of priorities developed by the NCA, and to provide a clear justification for how they would inform the Nation about climate change. Additional goals included providing input on the overall NCA framework for selecting the indicators and suggesting methodologies to construct indicators. Although one of the workshop goals was to address the status of current observational networks to support indicators, this was not a main focus of any single discussion. However, participants agreed with the NCA indicator vision that high quality data were needed to develop indicators, and generally focused on identifying indicator categories that current observation systems could support. The nearly 60 participants, primarily from Federal agencies, received a white paper in advance of the workshop that detailed the NCA vision for a coordinated suite of climate-related physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The intent of these national indicators of change is to develop a way to evaluate and communicate over time both the rate of change in impacts and the capacity to respond to climate drivers. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. An initial framework was provided to workshop participants to ensure that everyone understood the audience, scope, and purpose of the indicators. A common lexicon was defined since indicator terminology varies widely. In addition, several potential approaches to grouping or categorizing the indicators were presented. Participants spent most of their time in small breakout groups with facilitators, working to address a common set of questions. The workshop was structured to start with the broadest issue and then focus down as the workshop progressed. The first breakout therefore solicited comments on the NCA indicator framework, followed by discussion of the potential approaches to organizing the physical climate indicators. Once several approaches were identified, the groups then worked to define specific measurements, or types of measurements, that could be used to create the indicators

A Review of Government Financial Reporting Research Post-GASB 34 and Investigations of GASB 54 Fund Balances

My dissertation consists of three studies. My first study builds a literature review of state and local general-purpose government financial reporting research (including bond and financial condition research) after Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) Statement No. 34’s issuance in 1999. The research referenced shows that reporting information after GASB 34 has, and will, continue to shape governmental financial reporting studies. My second study examines both the rearrangement of governmental fund balance amounts after GASB Statement No. 54 and the factors associated with updated fund balance categories. My pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions show that pre-standard “unreserved” fund balances had greater variance in allocation to GASB fund balance categories than “reserved” fund balances. In my determinants analysis, general service charges and wealth are positively, while prior deficits, population, and unemployment are negatively, related to GASB 54 governmental fund balance categories that have higher spending flexibility. The findings suggest reporting consistency improvements with GASB 54 requirements. My third study examines how GASB 54 flexible governmental fund balance types are associated with future bond-specific outcomes and future revenue/expenditure compositions. Estimating pooled OLS regressions, the results demonstrate that future bond interest costs decrease and bond ratings increase as the amounts of “unrestricted” or “unassigned” balances increase. Flexible fund balance changes are also positively related to future operating expenditure changes, while negatively related to future property tax, service charge, and specific intergovernmental revenue changes. These results indicate that flexible fund balance information signals financial health, affecting both external and internal decision-making

Bait Shyness and Neophobia in Several Species of Osteichthyes: An Extension of Taste Aversion Studies to the Superclass Pices

Three experiments were conducted with five species of tropical fish to investigate the phenomena of taste aversion and food neophobia. In addition, an experiment determined specifically if position in the tank could acquire conditioned aversive properties. In Experiment 1 , four habituated fish were fed novel meat-flavored pellets on the treatment day. Six were made ill within 30, 60, or 90 minutes (2 subjects each) by intragastric administration of syrup or Epicac. The following day all were fed familiar commercial pellets. On the second day after treatment, all were offered the meat-flavored pellets. Results showed longer latencies, more tasting, and decreased consumption of novel pellets. All measures differed significantly for the treatment subjects compared to their own baseline and controls. Experiment II demonstrated food neophobia in four in experienced fish. After habituation they were fed novel meat-flavored pellets but not made ill (day 0). On day 1 and 2 they received familiar diet and were made ill after the feeding on day 2. On day 3 they received familiar food again and no change in approach latency, testing response, or quantity consumed occurred. On day 4, they were offered the novel meat-flavored pellets which they refused. These results indicate that the fish associated the illness with the more novel food even though their familiar diet was temporally closer to the illness. In Experiment III five species of naive fish were habituated to 20-gallon tanks and made ill after eating in one end and not in the other. The same food was us ed in both ends. The illness end could have taken on discriminitive properties and food consumption there should have decreased, as opposed to the other safe end . The results indicated that place did not acquire aversive discriminitive properties. Food consumption decreased in quantity, food approach latencies increased and length of tasting bouts increased in both ends. These experiments were the first to use these species of fish in this type of research. The results extend the phenomena of taste aversion and food neophobia. In addition, Experiment III systematically replicated the hypothesis of relevant relations between stimuli and showed that it is easier to learn certain consequences with certain cues than with others. In this case illness was quickly associated with taste but place was treated as irrelevant

The Case for Conscientiousness: Evidence and Implications for a Personality Trait Marker of Health and Longevity

Purpose Recent initiatives by major funding agencies have emphasized translational and personalized approaches (e.g., genetic testing) to health research and health management. While such directives are appropriate, and will likely produce tangible health benefits, we seek to highlight a confluence of several lines of research showing relations between the personality dimension of conscientiousness and a variety of health-related outcomes. Methods Using a modified health process model, we review the compelling evidence linking conscientiousness to health and disease processes, including longevity, diseases, morbidity-related risk factors, health-related psycho-physiological mechanisms, health-related behaviors, and social environmental factors related to health. Conclusion We argue the accumulated evidence supports greater integration of conscientiousness into public health, epidemiological, and medical research, with the ultimate aim of understanding how facilitating more optimal trait standing might foster better health

Duel or Diversion? Conscientiousness and Executive Function in the Prediction of Health and Longevity

Response to Hall and Fong Letter to the Editor in Annals of Behavioral Medicine 45(3)

Development of an AQUA Based Near-Surface Parameter Retrieval

The production of a satellite based turbulent surface flux product relies critically upon the near-surface input parameters. Development of retrieval algorithms for the necessary near-surface variables of wind speed, specific humidity, air temperature, and sea surface temperature has proceeded relatively independent of each another until recently. The use of a neural network approach using Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data in conjunction with a first guess sea surface temperature has led to successful retrieval of all parameters simultaneously. However, SSM/I frequencies lack inherent sensitivity to the sea surface temperature (SST). Recent studies have found improved air temperature and humidity retrievals can be obtained via inclusion of microwave sounding channels weighted in the lower troposphere. The inclusion of SSM/I-like frequencies as well as SST-sensitive microwave channels on AMSR-E along with AMSU-A sounding data onboard the AQUA platform provides an unique opportunity. That is the ability to provide near-simultaneous (in space and time) measurements allowing the retrieval of all the near-surface variables, including SST. This study shows results of a new algorithm designed to take advantage of the unique sampling ability of AQUA based sensors. Results from a neural network based methodology will be shown as compared to in-situ based observations of near-surface variables. Implications for creation of an AQUA based turbulent surface product are also discussed

How the Changing Passive Microwave Observing System Challenges the Development of Water Cycle Climate Data Records

No abstract availabl

Patterns of Lone Actor Terrorism in the United States

This research explores the differences in geospatial and temporal patterns between lone actor and group-based terrorists in the United States. These include differences in demographics, precursor activities, proximity to the terrorism incidents, and longevity of conducting terrorist activities. Data for this analysis were derived from the American Terrorism Study (ATS). The ATS includes information on federal criminal cases resulting from FBI investigations for “terrorism or terrorism-related activities.” The analysis includes data from 264 prevented or completed terrorism incidents in the United States from 1980-present. These incidents involved 314 indictees charged with over 3,000 federal criminal counts. They were responsible for 1,788 recorded precursor activities that occurred at over 1,100 geocoded addresses

Closing the Seasonal Ocean Surface Temperature Balance in the Eastern Tropical Oceans from Remote Sensing and Model Reanalyses

Residual forcing necessary to close the MLTB on seasonal time scales are largest in regions of strongest surface heat flux forcing. Identifying the dominant source of error - surface heat flux error, mixed layer depth estimation, ocean dynamical forcing - remains a challenge in the eastern tropical oceans where ocean processes are very active. Improved sub-surface observations are necessary to better constrain errors. 1. Mixed layer depth evolution is critical to the seasonal evolution of mixed layer temperatures. It determines the inertia of the mixed layer, and scales the sensitivity of the MLTB to errors in surface heat flux and ocean dynamical forcing. This role produces timing impacts for errors in SST prediction. 2. Errors in the MLTB are larger than the historical 10Wm-2 target accuracy. In some regions, a larger accuracy can be tolerated if the goal is to resolve the seasonal SST cycle