Understanding the recent behavior of U.S. inflation

One of the most surprising features of the long current expansion has been the decline in price inflation through the late 1990s. Some observers interpret the decline as evidence of a permanent change in the relationship between inflation and economic growth. But an analysis based on a standard forecasting model suggests that conventional economic factors_most notably, a decrease in import prices_can account for the low inflation rates in recent years.Inflation (Finance) ; Imports

Tracking productivity in real time

Because volatile short-term movements in productivity growth obscure the underlying trend, shifts in this trend may go unrecognized for years - a lag that can lead to policy mistakes and hence economic instability. This study develops a model for tracking productivity that brings in additional variables to help reveal the trend. The model's success is evident in its ability to detect changes in trend productivity within a year or two of their occurrence. Currently, the model indicates that the underlying trend remains strong despite recent weak productivity data.Industrial productivity - Measurement ; Economic policy ; Econometric models

The Relationship between Expected Inflation, Disagreement, and Uncertainty: Evidence from Matched Point and Density Forecasts

VIII Congreso Iberoamericano de Nutrición. ¿Nutrición basada en la videncia o en la evidencia

KINEMATIC ANALYSIS OF ELITE JAVELIN THROWERS

Research on various aspects of the throwing motion has indicated it to be a very complex movement (Atwater, 1979). Certain kinematic parameters appear t o be common determinants of successful performance regardless of the nature of the throwing task. Under ideal conditions (i.e., ignoring air resistance and the type of implement being thrown) the path, and hence distance thrown, is determined by the angle, height and velocity of release. Such an ideal analysis needs some modification for situations in which aerodynamics are considered. Since the release phase of the javelin throw encompasses these common throwing components as well as obvious aerodynamic influences, quantification of release characteristics which establish the initial conditions of f light is important

Observations of the Diurnal Dependence of the High-Latitude \u3ci\u3eF\u3c/i\u3e Region Ion Density by DMSP Satellites

Data from the DMSP F2 and F4 satellites for the period December 5-10, 1979, have been used to study the diurnal dependence of the high-latitude ion density at 800-km altitude. A 24-hour periodicity in the minimum orbital density (MOD) during a crossing of the high-latitude region is observed in both the winter and summer hemispheres. The phase of the variation in MOD is such that it has a minimum during the 24-hour period between 0700 and 0900 UT. Both the long term variation of the high-latitude ion density on a time scale of days, and the orbit by orbit variations at the same geomagnetic location in the northern (winter) hemisphere for the magnetically quiet time period chosen show good qualitative agreement with the diurnal dependence predicted by a theoretical model of the ionospheric density at high latitudes under conditions of low convection speeds (Sojka et al., 1981a)

Plasma Androgens in Women with Acne Vulgaris

We have studied a group of young adult women of mean age 23.8 ± 6.5 (SD) years with only acne (A, n =46), only hirsutism (H, n = 10), and acne plus hirsutism (A+H, n = 19) who sought dermatologic care. We measured the androgens, total and free testosterone (T), free 17β-hydroxysteroids (17-β), dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DS), and the androgen precursors 17α-hydroxypregnenolone (17-Preg) and 17α-hydroxyprogesterone (17-Prog), as well as testosterone-estrogen binding globulin in all patients. Plasma hormone levels of the patients were compared to those of 23 controls of mean age 25.6 ± 6.6 years who had neither acne nor hirsutism. Mean levels of all hormones measured, except 17-Preg, were elevated in the women with acne. Fifty-two percent of Group A, 66% of Group H, and 63% of Group A+H patients had at least one abnormal hormone level. The most frequently elevated plasma androgens in all the women with acne were: free T 25%, free 17-β 23%, and DS 19%. Total T was high in only 12%. Elevations of plasma androgens were present in some women who did not have hirsutism or irregular menses. Identification of endocrine abnormalities in women with acne may potentially offer an opportunity for hormonal therapy

Polyclonal Infections Due to Mycobacterium Avium Complex in Patients with AIDS Detected by Pulsed-field Gel Electrophoresis of Sequential Clinical Isolates.

Invasive infection with organisms of the Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) is common among patients with advanced human immunodeficiency virus infection. In previous studies, we analyzed multiple individual colonies of MAC isolated from specimens obtained at the same time and observed that 14 to 20% of patients are simultaneously infected with more than one strain. In this study, we examined sequential isolates from 12 patients with AIDS who had two or more MAC isolates available from clinical specimens collected more than 1 week apart; the intervals between the first and last specimens ranged from 8 to 192 (median, 46) days. For each isolate, restriction digests of genomic DNA were analyzed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis; DNA was prepared by using a protocol, described here in detail, which had been optimized for conditions of bacterial growth and lysis. The pulsed-field gel electrophoresis analysis identified four patients (33%) infected with two different MAC strains. Both M. avium and M. intracellulare were cultured from blood specimens from two patients. In each of the four patients, the second strain was identified from a culture taken within 14 days of the initial study isolate, and in three of these patients, the first strain was detected again in a subsequent culture. These observations suggest that the presence of two different strains among isolates from sequential cultures may reflect ongoing polyclonal infection. We conclude that polyclonal infection with MAC is common among patients with AIDS. The identification of such infections may be critical in the development of effective treatments

PAndAS in the mist: The stellar and gaseous mass within the halos of M31 and M33

Large scale surveys of the prominent members of the Local Group have provided compelling evidence for the hierarchical formation of massive galaxies, revealing a wealth of substructure that is thought to be the debris from ancient and on-going accretion events. In this paper, we compare two extant surveys of the M31-M33 subgroup of galaxies; the Pan-Andromeda Archaeological Survey (PAndAS) of the stellar structure, and a combination of observations of the HI gaseous content, detected at 21cm. Our key finding is a marked lack of spatial correlation between these two components on all scales, with only a few potential overlaps between stars and gas.The paucity of spatial correlation significantly restricts the analysis of kinematic correlations, although there does appear to the HI kinematically associated with the Giant Stellar Stream where it passes the disk of M31. These results demonstrate that that different processes must significantly influence the dynamical evolution of the stellar and HI components of substructures, such as ram pressure driving gas away from a purely gravitational path. Detailed modelling of the offset between the stellar and gaseous substructure will provide a determination of the properties of the gaseous halo of M31 and M33.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures. Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal. Figure quality reduced. High quality version available at http://www.physics.usyd.edu.au/~gfl/Arxiv_Papers/PAndAS_Mist