Specialized Human Capital Investment, Growth and Convergence

No abstract.

Unmarried fertility, crime, and cocial stigma

Children born to unmarried parents may receive lower human capital investments in youth, leading to higher levels of criminal activity as adults. Therefore, unmarried fertility may be positively associated with future crime. On the other hand, in an environment in which social stigma attached to non-marital fertility is high, many low match quality parents will choose (or be forced) to marry, and children reared in these families may actually be worse off than had their parents not married. We explore these effects empirically, finding that over the long run, unmarried fertility is positively associated with murder and property crime, but that the degree of social stigma has affected this relationship. For instance, our results suggest that some marriages in the 1940s and 1950s were of such low quality that the children involved would have been better off in single-parent households; however, this finding is reversed for marriages in the 1960s and thereafter – many marriages that would have benefited children have since been foregone. We also discuss implications for the debate over the “abortion-crime” link of Donohue and Levitt (2001).unmarried fertility; abortion; future crime; social stigma

Do higher rents discourage fertility? evidence from U.S. cities, 1940-2000

This paper documents the existence of a negative cross-sectional correlation between the price of living space and fertility using U.S. Census data over the period 1940-2000. This correlation is not spurious, nor does it reflect the tendency of larger families to locate within less-expensive areas of a given metropolitan area. We examine the extent to which the results reflect the sorting of married couples across metropolitan areas on desired fertility. The relationship between the unit price of living space and fertility in fact tends to be more negative for households that have moved recently. However, the probability of migration between metropolitan areas is smaller for larger families, even those originating in more expensive cities. Moreover, Durbin-Wu-Hausman tests reveal only limited evidence of endogeneity. The weaker effects of the price of living space for less mobile couples seems to be at least in part a result of their choosing to live in less-expensive portions within a given metropolitan area.price of space; fertility; metropolitan areas

White discrimination in provision of black education: plantations and towns

We present a model of public provision of education for blacks in two discriminatory regimes, white plantation controlled, and white town controlled. We show that the ability to migrate to a non-discriminating district constrains the ability of both types of whites to discriminate. The model produces time series of educational outcomes for whites and blacks that mimic the behavior seen in Post Reconstruction South Carolina to the onset of the Civil Rights Act. It also fits the Post World War II black-white income differentials.discriminatory education provision; black-white education differences

Productivity differences: the importance of intra-state black-white schooling differences across the United States, 1840-2000

Using newly created data containing real output per worker, real physical capital per worker, and human capital per worker for US states from 1840 to 2000, Turner et. al (2007) analyze the growth rates of aggregate inputs and total factor productivity (TFP). We continue this line of work by documenting the importance of TFP differences in explaining cross sectional variation in the levels of (log) output. We construct plausible upper bounds on the fraction of the variance in output levels that can be explained by TFP and inputs. Similar to the growth rate analysis, we find that TFP can, on average, explain nearly 90% of output variance while inputs can explain up to only 50% of output variance. We then consider the possibility that one major institutional difference across states, the extent to which blacks were denied access to formal education, might explain TFP differences across states. To this end, we generate and present a years of schooling measures, by race, at the state level from 1840 to 2000. While directly exploiting this series has very little impact on the upper bound of the fraction of output variation that can be explained by inputs, we do find that the size of the gap between white and black years of schooling is negatively related to TFP in the period from 1840 to 1950. We also consider the extent to which time-varying rates of return on education alters the upper bound on the fraction of output variation that can be explained by inputs, finding that time-varying rates have little impact. Finally, we find some evidence for external effects of higher education and physical capital.black-white schooling differences; state productivity differences

Fertility decline, baby boom and economic growth

We present new data documenting the secular decline in fertility in the states of the United States, the dramatic convergence in fertility, child schooling, parental schooling, survival probabilities. In addition we document the disparate nature of the Baby Boom in the United States. There were two different regimes, a large Baby Boom and a Small Baby Boom. The large Baby Boom regions also had the smallest increase in child schooling, whereas the small Baby Boom regions had the largest increase in child schooling. We present suggestive evidence that falling mortality risk is strongly positively correlated with falling fertility, rising education levels of parents is strongly negatively related to fetility, and that population density is negatively related to fertility. Finally we show the robust negative correlation of mortality risk on child schooling attainment, and positve correlation of population density and child schooling attainment.mortality; density; fertility decline; baby boom; economic growth

Income and education of the states of the United States: 1840–2000

This article introduces original annual average years of schooling measures for each state from 1840 to 2000. The paper also combines original data on real state per-worker output with existing data to provide a more comprehensive series of real state output per worker from 1840 to 2000. These data show that the New England, Middle Atlantic, Pacific, East North Central, and West North Central regions have been educational leaders during the entire time period. In contrast, the South Atlantic, East South Central, and West South Central regions have been educational laggards. The Mountain region behaves differently than either of the aforementioned groups. Using their estimates of average years of schooling and average years of experience in the labor force, the authors estimate aggregate Mincerian earnings regressions. Their estimates indicate that a year of schooling increased output by between 8 percent and 12 percent, with a point estimate close to 10 percent. These estimates are in line with the body of evidence from the labor literature.

Estimating Physical Capital and Land for States and Sectors of the United States, 1850-2000

This paper introduces new estimates of physical capital and land for the states of the United States covering up to 150 years, from 1850{2000. The estimates of physical capital are decomposed into estimates for agriculture, manufacturing, and a residual sector, while the estimates of land are for agriculture only. The paper describes the data sources and methodology used to generate the estimates. It provides sensitivity analysis when alternative choices are possible and comparison to alternative bench-marks when available.state physical capital, state land, farming, land, non-manufacturing, non-farming

Factor Returns, Institutions, and Geography: A View From Trade

We examine the importance of institutions and geography for determining workers' wages and the return to capital. These returns to labor and capital are examined through the lens of labor and capital's productivities, which are directly related to the factors' returns. We estimate productivities of labor and capital based on trade flows across countries and present statistical evidence that these productivities are related to total factor productivities which rationalize output differences across countries. We examine whether these labor and capital productivities are related to countries' political institutions and geography. Protection of property rights is the dominant influence on both labor and capital productivity. There is some evidence that a democratic government affects productivity, but once property rights are included in the analysis, the overall democracy index has little influence on factor productivity.. Geography is only important in terms of distance to a large market. Factors such as the incidence of malaria are relatively unimportant. The unimportance of geography is not only statistical. For example, if the Philippines kept its geography but had the United Kingdom 's institutions, the Philippines ' labor productivity would increase from seven percent to 75 percent of the U.S. 's and capital productivity would increase from 25 percent to 58 percent of the U.S. 's. On the other hand, if the Philippines were to keep its institutions and were magically more to the United Kingdom 's geographic location, labor productivity would increase only from seven percent to 28 percent and capital productivity would increase from 25 percent to 26 percent.