The not-so-great moderation? Evidence on changing volatility from Australian regions

In this paper we examine Australian data on national and regional employment numbers, focusing in particular on whether there have been common national and regional changes in the volatility of employment. A subsidiary objective is to assess whether the results derived from traditional growth rate models are sustained when alternative filtering methods are used. In particular, we compare the results of the growth rate models with those obtained from Hodrick-Prescott models. Using frequency filtering methods in conjunction with autoregressive modeling, we show that there is considerable diversity in the regional pattern of change and that it would be wrong to suppose that results derived from the aggregate employment series are generally applicable across the regions. The results suggest that the so-called great moderation may have been less extensive than aggregate macro studies suggest.Regional employment, State business cycle, Structural change, Volatility

Models of Labour Services and Estimates of Total Factor Productivity

This paper examines the manner in which labour services are modelled in the aggregate production function, concentrating on the relationship between numbers employed and average hours worked. It argues that numbers employed and hours worked are not perfect substitutes and that conventional estimates of total factor productivity which, by using total hours worked as the measure of labour services, assume they are perfect substitutes, will be biased when there are marked changes in average hours worked. The relevance of the theoretical argument is illustrated using data for the United States and the United Kingdom.Labour Services, Production Function, Total Factor Productivity

The Cyclical Dynamics and Volatility of Australian Output and Employment

In this paper we examine the volatility of aggregate output and employment in Australia with the aid of a frequency filtering method (the Butterworth filter) that allows each time series to be decomposed into trend, cycle and noise components. This analysis is compared with more traditional methods based simply on the examination of first differences in the logs of the raw data using cointegration-VAR modelling. We show that the application of univariate AR and bivariate VECM methods to the data results in a detrended series which is dominated by noise rather than cyclical variation and gives break points which are not robust to alternative decomposition methods. Also, our conclusions challenge accepted wisdom in relation to output volatility in Australia which holds that there was a once and for all sustained reduction in output volatility in or around 1984. We do not find any convincing evidence for a sustained reduction in the cyclical volatility of the GDP (or employment) series at that time, but we do find evidence of a sustained reduction in the cyclical volatility of the GDP (and employment) series in 1993/4. We also find that there is a clear association between output volatility and employment volatility. We discuss the key features of the business cycle we have identified as well as some of the policy implications of our results.Business cycles, volatility, inflation targeting, Australia

Design of elastomeric composites for the additive manufacturing of robots

This talk will present multidisciplinary work from material composites and robotics. We have created new types of actuators,[1] sensors,[2] displays,[3] and additive manufacturing techniques for soft robots.[4] For example, we now use stretchable optical waveguides as sensors for high accuracy, repeatability, and material compatibility with soft actuators. For displaying information, we have created stretchable, elastomeric displays as skins for soft robots. We have created a new type of soft actuator based on molding of foams and we have developed new chemical routes for stereolithography printing of elastomer based soft robots. All of these technologies depend on the iterative and complex feedback between material and mechanical design. I will describe this process, what is the present state of the art, and future opportunities for science in the space of additive manufacturing of elastomeric robots. 1. Mac Murray, B.C., et al., Poroelastic Foams for Simple Fabrication of Complex Soft Robots. Advanced Materials, 2015. 27(41): p. 6334-+. 2. Zhao, H., et al., Optoelectronically innervated soft prosthetic hand via stretchable optical waveguides. Science Robotics, 2016. 1(1): p. DOI: 10.1126/scirobotics.aai7529. 3. Larson, C., et al., Highly stretchable electroluminescent skin for optical signaling and tactile sensing. Science, 2016. 351(6277): p. 1071-1074. 4. Peele, B., et al., 3D Printing Soft Actuators via Digital Mask Projection Stereolithography. Bioinspiration & Biomimetics, 2015. 5(055003)

Bioinspired Design & Additive Manufacturing of Soft Materials, Machines, Robots, and Haptic Interfaces

This talk will present multidisciplinary work from material composites and robotics. We have created new types of actuators,[1] sensors,[2] displays,[3] and additive manufacturing techniques for soft robots and haptic interfaces.[4] For example, we now use stretchable optical waveguides as sensors for high accuracy, repeatability, and material compatibility with soft actuators. For displaying information, we have created stretchable, elastomeric light emitting displays as well as texture morphing (Pikul et al., in preparation) skins for soft robots. We have created a new type of soft actuator based on molding of foams, new chemical routes for stereolithography printing of silicone and hydrogel elastomer based soft robots, and implemented deep learning in stretchable membranes for interpreting touch (Larson et al., in preparation). All of these technologies depend on the iterative and complex feedback between material and mechanical design. I will describe this process, what is the present state of the art, and future opportunities for science in the space of additive manufacturing of elastomeric robots. 1. Mac Murray, B.C., et al., Poroelastic Foams for Simple Fabrication of Complex Soft Robots. Advanced Materials, 2015. 27 (41). 2. Zhao, H., et al., Optoelectronically innervated soft prosthetic hand via stretchable optical waveguides. Science Robotics, 2016. 1 (1). 3. Larson, C., et al., Highly stretchable electroluminescent skin for optical signaling and tactile sensing. Science, 2016. 351 (6277). 4. Peele, B., et al., 3D Printing Soft Actuators via Digital Mask Projection Stereolithography. Bioinspiration & Biomimetics, 2015. 5(055003)