The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing?

The objective of this report is to re-visit the “adequacy of speculation” debate in agricultural futures markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission makes available the positions held by index funds and other large traders in their Commitment of Traders reports. The results suggest that after an initial surge from early 2004 through mid-2005, index fund positions have stabilized as a percent of total open interest. Traditional speculative measures do not show any material changes or shifts over the sample period. In most markets, the increase in long speculative positions was equaled or surpassed by an increase in short hedging. So, even after adjusting speculative indices for index fund positions, values are within the historical ranges reported in prior research. One implication is that long-only index funds may be beneficial in markets traditionally dominated by short hedging. Attempts to curb speculation through regulatory means should be weighed carefully against the potential benefits provided by this class of speculators.Commitment’s of Traders, index funds, commodity futures markets, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics,

A Speculative Bubble in Commodity Futures Prices? Cross-Sectional Evidence

Recent accusations against speculators in general and long-only commodity index funds in particular, include: increasing market volatility, distorting historical price relationships, and fueling a rapid increase and decrease in commodity inflation. Some researchers have argued that these market participants—through their impact on market prices—may inadvertently prevented the efficient distribution of food aid to deserving groups. Certainly, this result—if substantiated— would counter the classical argument that speculators make prices more efficient and thus improve the economic efficiency of the agricultural and food marketing system. Given the very important policy implications, it is crucial to develop a more thorough understanding of long-only index funds and their potential market impact. Here, we review the criticisms (and rebuttals) levied against (and for) commodity index funds in recent U.S. Congressional testimonies. Then, additional empirical evidence is added regarding cross-sectional market returns and the relative levels of long-only index fund participation in 12 commodity futures markets. The results suggest that index fund positions across futures markets have no impact on relative price changes across those markets. The empirical results provide no evidence that long-only index funds impact commodity futures prices.Commitment’s of Traders, index funds, commodity futures markets, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty,

Smart Money? The Forecasting Ability of CFTC Large Traders

The forecasting ability of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitment’s of Traders data set is investigated. Bivariate Granger causality tests show very little evidence that traders’ positions are useful in forecasting (leading) market returns. However, there is substantial evidence that traders respond to price changes. In particular, non-commercial traders display a tendency for trend-following. The other trader classifications display mixed styles, perhaps indicating that those trader categories capture a variety of traders. The results generally do not support the use of the Commitment’s of Traders data in predicting market movements.Commitment’s of Traders, futures markets, forecasting, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics,

Smart Money: The Forecasting Ability of CFTC Large Traders in Agricultural Futures Markets

The forecasting content of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders (COT) report is investigated. Bivariate Granger causality tests show very little evidence that traders’ positions are useful in forecasting (leading) returns in 10 agricultural futures markets. However, there is substantial evidence that traders respond to price changes. In particular, noncommercial traders display a tendency for trend following. The other trader classifications display mixed styles, perhaps indicating those trader categories capture a variety of traders. The results generally do not support use of the COT data in predicting price movements in agricultural futures markets.agricultural futures markets, commitments of traders, forecasting, prices, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance,

The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets:Too Much of a Good Thing?

Long-only commodity index funds have been blamed by other futures market participants for inflating commodity prices, increasing market volatility, and distorting historical price relationships. Much of this criticism is leveled without any formal empirical support or even cursory data analyses. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission makes available the positions held by index funds and other large traders in their Commitment’s of Traders report. In this research, we make an initial assessment of the size and activity of index funds in traditional agricultural futures markets. The results suggest that after an initial surge from early 2004 through mid-2005, index fund positions have stabilized as a percent of total open interest. Speculative measures—such as Working’s T—suggest that long-only funds may provide a benefit in markets traditionally dominated by short hedging.Commitment’s of Traders, index funds, commodity futures markets, Agricultural Finance,

Interaction of GABA and Excitatory Amino Acids in the Basolateral Amygdala: Role in Cardiovascular Regulation

Activation of the amygdala in rats produces cardiovascular changes that include increases in heart rate and arterial pressure as well as behavioral changes characteristic of emotional arousal. The objective of the present study was to examine the interaction of GABA and excitatory amino acid (EAA) receptors in the basolateral amygdala (BLA) in regulating cardiovascular function. Microinjection of the GABAA receptor antagonist bicuculline methiodide (BMI) or the E A A receptor agonists NMDA or AMPA into the same region of the BLA of conscious rats produced dose-related increases in heart rate and arterial pressure. Injection of the nonselective EAA receptor antagonist kynurenic acid into the BLA prevented or reversed the cardiovascular changes caused by local injection of BMI or the noncompetitive GABA antagonist picrotoxin. Conversely, local pretreatment with the glutamate reuptake inhibitorl-trans-pyrrolidine-2,4-dicarboxylic acid enhanced the effects of intra-amygdalar injection of BMI. The cardiovascular effects of BMI were also attenuated by injection of either the NMDA antagonist 3-(2-carboxypiperazin-4-yl)-propyl-1-phosphonic acid (CPP) or the AMPA receptor antagonist 1,2,3,4-tetrahydro-6-nitro-2,3-dioxo-benzo[f]quinoxaline-7-sulfonamide (NBQX). When these two EAA receptor antagonists were combined, their ability to suppress BMI-induced tachycardic and pressor responses was additive. These findings indicate that the cardiovascular effects caused by blockade of GABAergic inhibition in the BLA of the rat are dependent on activation of local NMDA and AMPA receptors

Protecting cattle from horse flies (1996)

Horse flies (insect family Tabanidae) are probably the most severe fly pests of cattle on Missouri pasture and range. Only the females 'bite,' but the blood-feeding activities of these large, agile insects can constitute a serious threat to economical cattle performance when populations are large.New June 1996 -- Extension website

Supply of accounting graduates and the demand for public accounting recruits, 2002, for academic year 2000-2001

https://egrove.olemiss.edu/aicpa_arprts/1131/thumbnail.jp

Dangling-bond charge qubit on a silicon surface

Two closely spaced dangling bonds positioned on a silicon surface and sharing an excess electron are revealed to be a strong candidate for a charge qubit. Based on our study of the coherent dynamics of this qubit, its extremely high tunneling rate ~ 10^14 1/s greatly exceeds the expected decoherence rates for a silicon-based system, thereby overcoming a critical obstacle of charge qubit quantum computing. We investigate possible configurations of dangling bond qubits for quantum computing devices. A first-order analysis of coherent dynamics of dangling bonds shows promise in this respect.Comment: 17 pages, 3 EPS figures, 1 tabl