Stopping times under adaptive management.

<p>(2.5,50,97.5)-% quantiles for the policy stop time at each time step over 100 simulations of the epidemic under optimal adaptive management.</p

Online parameter estimates.

<p>Final posterior density estimates for the transmission rate (A), overdispersion parameter (B), recovery rate (C), and mortality rate (D). “True” parameter values are indicated by a dot, mean posterior values are indicated by an ‘x’, and the central 95% region of the distribution is shaded. Prior densities on the same regions are shown in red.</p

Expected costs under adaptive management.

<p>(2.5,50,97.5)-% quantiles for total cost accrued over 100 simulations of the epidemic under optimal adaptive management. The mean total cost is 1665 cost units, with quantile bounds (1450,1888).</p

Expected costs under model misspecification.

<p>Comparison of adaptive and nonadaptive policy costs when the inference model is misspecified. Even though the static policy is based on parameter estimates obtained after a completely observed epidemic, the costs associated with adaptive management are similar.</p

Expected costs under static intervention.

<p>Costs under optimal (2.5, 50, 97.5)-% quantiles for the total cost accrued over 1000 simulations of the epidemic under the optimal variable stop time strategy based on true parameter values. The mean total cost is 1652 cost units, with quantile bounds (1440,1846).</p

Simulated epidemics under adaptive management.

<p>(2.5, 59, 97.5)-% quantiles for the numbers of susceptible, infected, recovered, and vaccinated individuals over 100 simulations of the epidemic under optimal adaptive management. The mean number of vaccine units dispensed is 428, with quantile bounds (351,536).</p

Expected costs under imperfect parameter estimates.

<p>Comparison of adaptive and nonadaptive policy costs when static management is based on imperfect parameter estimates ().</p

Expected cost surface for static interventions.

<p>The heatmap depicts the expected cost surface associated with variable stop time vaccination strategies based on the true parameter values. The minimum expected cost (1640 cost units) is achieved by a strategy of vaccinating 30% of susceptibles at each time step, until the number of susceptibles falls below 150. The maximum expected is realized through inaction (top row and left column policies are never implemented).</p

Expected costs under nonintervention.

<p>(2.5, 50, 97.5)-% quantiles for total cost accrued over 1000 simulations of the epidemic without intervention. The mean total cost after 40 days is 2100 cost units, with quantile bounds (1949,2263).</p

Vaccination levels under adaptive management.

<p>(2.5, 50, 97.5)-% quantiles for the fraction of susceptibles vaccinated at each time step over 100 simulations of the epidemic under optimal adaptive management.</p