Controls on the Global Distribution of Martian Landsliding

Recent acquisition of high-resolution satellite imagery of the Martian surface has permitted landsliding to be studied on a global scale on Mars for the first time. We apply the Scoops3D software package to compute slope stability for select regions of the Martian surface, combining calculations of slope stability with number of observed landslides, as reported in a recently published (Crosta et al., 2018a, b) inventory of Martian landslides, to understand controls on the global distribution of landsliding on Mars. We find that the distribution of landsliding does not simply follow the distribution of unstable slopes. In particular, there is an increase in landsliding in the Tharsis Rise area, and especially in Valles Marineris and Noctis Labyrinthus, that is not explained by an abundance of unstable topography alone. We analyzed for but did not find a clear local lithologic or stratigraphic control on landslide occurrence from subsurface heterogeneities. Other possibilities to explain the increased occurrence of landslides in the Tharsis Rise include (1) regionally widespread Tharsis weak unit(s), such as from interbedded ashes and lavas; (2) seismic activity related to the Tharsis Rise’s geological activity, and (3) possible groundwater near Valles Marineris into the Amazonian. Given the apparently young ages of many landslide deposits in Valles Marineris (Quantin et al., 2004), continued modern day analysis of lithologies in Valles Marineris and observations of Martian seismicity may act to strengthen or rebut the first two hypotheses

Controls on the Global Distribution of Martian Landsliding

Recent acquisition of high-resolution satellite imagery of the Martian surface has permitted landsliding to be studied on a global scale on Mars for the first time. We apply the Scoops3D software package to compute slope stability for select regions of the Martian surface, combining calculations of slope stability with number of observed landslides, as reported in a recently published (Crosta et al., 2018a, b) inventory of Martian landslides, to understand controls on the global distribution of landsliding on Mars. We find that the distribution of landsliding does not simply follow the distribution of unstable slopes. In particular, there is an increase in landsliding in the Tharsis Rise area, and especially in Valles Marineris and Noctis Labyrinthus, that is not explained by an abundance of unstable topography alone. We analyzed for but did not find a clear local lithologic or stratigraphic control on landslide occurrence from subsurface heterogeneities. Other possibilities to explain the increased occurrence of landslides in the Tharsis Rise include (1) regionally widespread Tharsis weak unit(s), such as from interbedded ashes and lavas; (2) seismic activity related to the Tharsis Rise’s geological activity, and (3) possible groundwater near Valles Marineris into the Amazonian. Given the apparently young ages of many landslide deposits in Valles Marineris (Quantin et al., 2004), continued modern day analysis of lithologies in Valles Marineris and observations of Martian seismicity may act to strengthen or rebut the first two hypotheses

Private investment and government protection

Hurricane Katrina did massive damage because New Orleans and the Gulf Coast were not appropriately protected. Wherever natural disasters threaten, the government—in its traditional role as public goods provider—must decide what level of protection to provide to an area. It does so by purchasing protective capital, such as levees for a low-lying city. (“Protection” also consists of prohibiting projects that raise risk levels, such as draining swamps.) We show that if private capital is more likely to locate in better-protected areas, as would be expected, then the marginal social value of protection will increase with the level of protection provided. That is, the benefit function is convex, contrary to the normal assumption of concavity. When the government protects and the private sector invests, there may be multiple Nash equilibria due to the ill-behaved nature of the benefit function. Policy makers must compare them, rather than merely follow local optimality conditions, to find the equilibrium offering the highest social welfare. There is usually considerable uncertainty about the amount of private investment that will accompany any level of protection, further complicating the government’s choice problem. We show that when deciding on the level of protection to provide now, the government must take account of the option value of increasing the level of protection in the future. We briefly examine but dismiss the value of rules of thumb, such as building for 1000-year floods or other rules that ignore benefits and costs. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006Risk, Disaster, Floods, Infrastructure, Option value, Levees, Global warming, Multiple equilibria,

Spatio-temporal evolution of mass wasting after the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake revealed by a detailed multi-temporal inventory

Strong earthquakes in mountainous areas can trigger a large number of landslides that generate deposits of loose and unconsolidated debris across the landscape. These deposits can be easily remobilised by rainfalls, with their movement frequently evolving into catastrophic debris flows and avalanches. This has been the fate of many of the 200,000 co-seismic deposits generated by the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, China. Here we present one of the first studies on the post-seismic patterns of landsliding through a detailed multi-temporal inventory that covers a large portion of the epicentral area (462.5 km2). We quantify changes of size-frequency distribution, active volumes and type of movement. We analyse the possible factors controlling landslide activity and we discuss the significance of mapping uncertainties. We observe that the total number of active landslides decreased with time significantly (from 9189 in 2008 to 221 in 2015), and that post-seismic remobilisations soon after the earthquake (2008–2011) occurred stochastically with respect to the size of the co-seismic deposits. Subsequently (2013–2015), landslide rates remained higher in larger deposits than in smaller ones, particularly in proximity to the drainage network, with channelised flows becoming comparatively more frequent than hillslope slides. However, most of the co-seismic debris remained along the hillslopes and are largely stabilised, urging to rethink the way we believe that seismic activity affects the erosion patterns in mountain ranges