Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance

Decision‐making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream‐flows in north‐eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

Ordering our world: the quest for traces of temporal organization in autobiographical memory

An experiment examined the idea, derived from the Self Memory System model (Conway & Pleydell-Pearce, 2000), that autobiographical events are sometimes tagged in memory with labels reflecting the life era in which an event occurred. The presence of such labels should affect the ease of judgments of the order in which life events occurred. Accordingly, 39 participants judged the order of two autobiographical events. Latency data consistently showed that between-era judgments were faster than within-era judgments, when the eras were defined in terms of either: (a) college versus high school, (b) academic quarter within year, or (c) academic year within school. The accuracy data similarly supported the presence of a between-era judgment effect for the college versus high school dichotomy

Trauma and depressive symptomatology in middle-aged persons at high risk of dementia: the PREVENT Dementia Study

Objective: Depression and trauma are associated with changes in brain regions implicated in Alzheimer’s disease. The present study examined associations between childhood trauma, depression, adult cognitive functioning and risk of dementia. Methods: Data from 378 participants in the PREVENT Dementia Study aged 40–59 years. Linear and logistic models were used to assess associations between childhood trauma, depression, dementia risk, cognitive test scores and hippocampal volume. Results: Childhood trauma was associated with depression and reduced hippocampal volume but not current cognitive function or dementia risk. Poorer performance on a delayed face/name recall task was associated with depression. Childhood trauma was associated with lower hippocampal volume however poorer cognitive performance was mediated by depression rather than structural brain differences. Conclusion: Depressive symptomatology may be associated with dementia risk via multiple pathways, and future studies should consider subtypes of depressive symptomatology when examining its relationship to dementia

Steklov problem on differential forms

In this paper we study spectral properties of Dirichlet-to-Neumann map on differential forms obtained by a slight modification of the definition due to Belishev and Sharafutdinov. The resulting operator $\Lambda$ is shown to be self-adjoint on the subspace of coclosed forms and to have purely discrete spectrum there.We investigate properies of eigenvalues of $\Lambda$ and prove a Hersch-Payne-Schiffer type inequality relating products of those eigenvalues to eigenvalues of Hodge Laplacian on the boundary. Moreover, non-trivial eigenvalues of $\Lambda$ are always at least as large as eigenvalues of Dirichlet-to-Neumann map defined by Raulot and Savo. Finally, we remark that a particular case of $p$-forms on the boundary of $2p+2$-dimensional manifold shares a lot of important properties with the classical Steklov eigenvalue problem on surfaces.Comment: 18 page

Remote data collection speech analysis and prediction of the identification of Alzheimer’s disease biomarkers in people at risk for Alzheimer’s disease dementia: the Speech on the Phone Assessment (SPeAk) prospective observational study protocol

International audienceIntroduction Identifying cost-effective, non-invasive biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a clinical and research priority. Speech data are easy to collect, and studies suggest it can identify those with AD. We do not know if speech features can predict AD biomarkers in a preclinical population. Methods and analysis The Speech on the Phone Assessment (SPeAk) study is a prospective observational study. SPeAk recruits participants aged 50 years and over who have previously completed studies with AD biomarker collection. Participants complete a baseline telephone assessment, including spontaneous speech and cognitive tests. A 3-month visit will repeat the cognitive tests with a conversational artificial intelligence bot. Participants complete acceptability questionnaires after each visit. Participants are randomised to receive their cognitive test results either after each visit or only after they have completed the study. We will combine SPeAK data with AD biomarker data collected in a previous study and analyse for correlations between extracted speech features and AD biomarkers. The outcome of this analysis will inform the development of an algorithm for prediction of AD risk based on speech features. Ethics and dissemination This study has been approved by the Edinburgh Medical School Research Ethics Committee (REC reference 20-EMREC-007). All participants will provide informed consent before completing any study-related procedures, participants must have capacity to consent to participate in this study. Participants may find the tests, or receiving their scores, causes anxiety or stress. Previous exposure to similar tests may make this more familiar and reduce this anxiety. The study information will include signposting in case of distress. Study results will be disseminated to study participants, presented at conferences and published in a peer reviewed journal. No study participants will be identifiable in the study results

A composite measure of cognitive and functional progression in Alzheimer's disease: Design of the Capturing Changes in Cognition study

markdownabstract__Introduction__ Cognitive testing in Alzheimer's disease (AD) is essential for establishing diagnosis, monitoring progression, and evaluating treatments. Assessments should ideally be brief, reliable, valid, and reflect clinically meaningful changes. There is a lack of instruments that meet all these criteria. In the Capturing Changes in Cognition (Catch-Cog) study, we seek to correct these deficiencies through the development and validation of a composite measure combining cognition and function: the cognitive-functional composite (CFC). We expect that the CFC is able to detect clinically relevant changes over time in early dementia stages of AD. __Methods/Design__ We will include patients (n = 350) with mild cognitive impairment or mild dementia due to AD from memory clinics in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. We will include cognitively healthy volunteers (n = 30) as a control group. The CFC is based on the “cognitive composite” and the Amsterdam instrumental activities of daily living questionnaire. We will investigate test–retest reliability with baseline and 2- to 3-week follow-up assessments (n = 50 patients and n = 30 healthy controls). We will involve experts and participants to evaluate the initial feasibility and refine the CFC if needed. Subsequently, we will perform a longitudinal construct validation study in a prospective cohort (n = 300) with baseline, 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-up assessments. The main outcome is cognitive and functional progression measured by the CFC. Reference measures for progression include traditional cognitive and functional tests, disease burden measures, and brain imaging methods. Using linear mixed modeling, we will investigate longitudinal changes on the CFC and relate these to the reference measures. Using linear regression analyses, we will evaluate the influence of possible confounders such as age, gender, and education on the CFC. __Discussion__ By performing an independent longitudinal construct validation, the Catch-Cog study of the novel CFC will contribute to the improvement of disease monitoring and treatment evaluation in early dementia stages of AD

76-Year Decline and Recovery of Aspen Mediated by Contrasting Fire Regimes: Long-Unburned, Infrequent and Frequent Mixed-Severity Wildfire

Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) is a valued, minor component on northeastern California landscapes. It provides a wide range of ecosystem services and has been in decline throughout the region for the last century. This decline may be explained partially by the lack of fire on the landscape due to heavier fire suppression, as aspen benefit from fire that eliminates conifer competition and stimulates reproduction through root suckering. However, there is little known about how aspen stand area changes in response to overlapping fire. Our study area in northeastern California on the Lassen, Modoc and Plumas National Forests has experienced recent large mixed-severity wildfires where aspen was present, providing an opportunity to study the re-introduction of fire. We observed two time periods; a 52-year absence of fire from 1941 to 1993 preceding a 24-year period of wildfire activity from 1993 to 2017. We utilized aerial photos and satellite imagery to delineate aspen stands and assess conifer cover percent. We chose aspen stands in areas where wildfires overlapped (twice-burned), where only a single wildfire burned, and areas that did not burn within the recent 24-year period. We observed these same stands within the first period of fire exclusion for comparison (i.e., 1941–1993). In the absence of fire, all aspen stand areas declined and all stands experienced increases in conifer composition. After wildfire, stands that burned experienced a release from conifer competition and increased in stand area. Stands that burned twice or at high severity experienced a larger removal of conifer competition than stands that burned once at low severity, promoting expansion of aspen stand area. Stands with less edge:area ratio also expanded in area more with fire present. Across both time periods, stand movement, where aspen stand footprints were mostly in new areas compared to footprints of previous years, was highest in smaller stands. In the fire exclusion period, smaller stands exhibited greater loss of area and changes in location (movement) than in the return of fire period, highlighting their vulnerability to loss via succession to conifers in the absence of disturbances that provide adequate growing space for aspen over time

HbA1c response and hospital admissions following commencement of flash glucose monitoring in adults with type 1 diabetes

Introduction Our aim was to assess the effect of introducing flash monitoring in adults with type 1 diabetes with respect to change in hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and frequency of hospital admissions.Research design and methods Prospective observational study of adults with type 1 diabetes in our center, in whom a prescription for a flash monitoring sensor was collected. Primary outcome was change in HbA1c between 2016 and after flash monitoring. Rates of hospital admission were compared between the first year after flash monitoring and the corresponding 12-month period 2 years earlier.Results Approximately half of all adults with type 1 diabetes, attending our center, collected prescriptions for flash monitoring sensors (n=2216). Median fall in HbA1c was −1 (−0.1) mmol/mol (%) (p<0.001) and was greatest in those with baseline HbA1c >75 (9.0) mmol/mol (%): −10 (−0.9) mmol/mol (%), p<0.001. 43% of those with a baseline HbA1c >53 mmol/mol (7%) experienced a ≥5 mmol/mol (0.5%) fall in HbA1c. In addition to higher HbA1c, early commencement within 1 month of NHS-funded flash monitoring (p<0.001), and male gender (p=0.013) were associated with a fall in HbA1c of ≥5 (0.5) mmol/mol (%). Socioeconomic deprivation (p=0.009) and collecting fewer than 2 sensors per month (p=0.002) were associated with lack of response. Overall, hospital admissions did not change but an increase in admissions for hypoglycemia was observed (1.1% vs 0.3%, p=0.026).Conclusions Flash monitoring is associated with reduction in HbA1c in individuals with HbA1c >58 mmol/mol. Numerous clinical features are independently associated with HbA1c response. An increase in hypoglycemia admissions occurred following flash monitoring

Association between midlife dementia risk factors and longitudinal brain atrophy: the PREVENT-Dementia study

Background: Increased rates of brain atrophy on serial MRI are frequently used as a surrogate marker of disease progression in Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias. However, the extent to which they are associated with future risk of dementia in asymptomatic subjects is not clear. In this study, we investigated the relationship between the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Dementia (CAIDE) risk score and longitudinal atrophy in middle-aged subjects. Materials and methods: A sample of 167 subjects (aged 40–59 at baseline) from the PREVENT-Dementia programme underwent MRI scans on two separate occasions (mean interval 735 days; SD 44 days). We measured longitudinal rates of brain atrophy using the FSL Siena toolbox. Results: Annual percentage rates of brain volume and ventricular volume change were greater in those with a high (>6) vs low CAIDE score—absolute brain volume percentage loss 0.17% (CI 0.07 to 0.27) and absolute ventricular enlargement 1.78% (CI 1.14 to 2.92) higher in the at risk group. Atrophy rates did not differ between subjects with and without a parental history of dementia, but were significantly correlated with age. Using linear regression, with covariates of age, sex and education, CAIDE score >6 was the only significant predictor of whole brain atrophy rates (p=0.025) while age (p=0.009), sex (p=0.002) and CAIDE>6 (p=0.017) all predicted ventricular expansion rate. Conclusion: Our results show that progressive brain atrophy is associated with increased risk of future dementia in asymptomatic middle-aged subjects, two decades before dementia onset