A GIS-Based Expert Systems Predictive Habitat Model for Threatened and Endangered Species: Case Study Using Kentucky Arrow Darter

This study presents a GIS-based predictive habitat suitability model for the Kentucky arrow darter (Etheostoma spilotum), a fish species of the upper Kentucky River basin that is a candidate for federal listing by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The model is based on previous work: the development of a similar predictive model for identifying the habitat of the blackside dace, a threatened minnow species of the upper Cumberland River basin in Southeastern Kentucky. The research describes a weighted, rules-based system which incorporates expert knowledge about habitat preferences for the arrow darter. For this model, five habitat factors were identified by experts as essential to modeling the habitat: stream gradient, canopy coverage, land cover, riparian zone width, and stream order. Using a GIS, the five habitat factors were parameterized and combined across the entire Kentucky River basin stream network. Experts evaluated combinations of habitat factors to determine habitat suitability. Using locational modeling statistics, the resulting model was tested against known Kentucky arrow darter occurrences. The analysis demonstrated successful identification of streams where the arrow darter was likely — and unlikely — to exist. Model results could be useful to transportation planners, particularly when determining sensitive landscape that could be impacted by transportation planning processes. This model may help planners save money on habitat mitigation when transportation initiatives take place in known unsuitable arrow darter habitats. A GIS model similar to the one developed in this study may be applicable to other endangered species

Assessment of Kentucky\u27s Historic Truss Bridges

This study created an information base to improve decisions about the replacement or rehabilitation of historic truss bridges. During the first phase of the research, information on the history and design of the 109 bridges in the study was assembled. With the assistance of historic preservation professionals, 75 of those bridges were selected for further study for their potential for rehabilitation. During the second phase, the KTC research team, engineers from the KYTC bridge division, and 12 highway district engineers, who are responsible for the day-to-day care and maintenance of the bridges, evaluated the condition and functional context of the 75 bridges. The goal was to identify those that are good candidates for preservation through rehabilitation. The district engineers were of the opinion that only 14 of the 75 bridges needed to be replaced. However, there was an additional subset of 13 bridges that, in their opinion, present some significant obstacles to preservation related to functional inadequacy or some other problem with the bridge. The bridge engineers estimated considerably higher levels of effort to preserve these 13 bridges (an average of 7.42 on a 10 point scale) than for the 48 remaining bridges (an average of 3.82 on the 10 point scale)

An Intermodal Network Model of Coal Distribution in the United States and Its Economic Implications for the Inland Waterway System

This paper describes a GIS-based intermodal network model for the shipment of coal in the United States. The purpose of this research was to investigate the role played by railways, waterways, and highways in the movement of coal from its source area to point of use, and to highlight the implications these movements have for the U.S. economy. The project team modeled coal movements across the U.S. intermodal transportation network using the Energy Information Administration’s 2010 data, which provided detailed origin, destination, primary mode, and volume information for coal shipments. The model identifies the optimum routes for coal shipments based on a rate structure that accounts for the relative costs of shipping by each of the modes. The model, as well as available statistics, reveals the dominance of coal mined from the Powder River Basin. Compared to other sources—principally, the Appalachian Basin—coal from Mountain West is significantly less expensive, thus giving it a significant comparative advantage. Both Texas and Illinois, the two largest coal consumers by state, obtain virtually all of their coal from the West or from within state. Appalachian Basin coal serves domestic and export markets primarily in the East and Southeastern U.S. Only the Ohio River provides significant movement of Central Appalachian Basin coal to the west and south. Although this modeling relies on 2010 data, a look at more recent trends in coal prices and mining indicate that the Powder River Basin continues to dominate, while production and industry employment have steadily declined in the Appalachian Basin. The shift away from coal and toward natural gas as a primary energy source argues for the region’s coal extraction industries remaining in a depressed state, which could produce negative economic consequences for transportation industries. Carrier and port facilities will need to adopt a more diversified shipping portfolio to accommodate for these losses. It is possible that the loss of coal will open up opportunities for other commodity shipments on the inland waterways. This modeling demonstrates the potential for such integrated models to accommodate energy - related or similar data, and serves as a tool for freight planners in identifying energy transportation corridors of significance. It could potentially be used to analyze the movement of other commodities, which could let industry stakeholders identify new markets to tap into. Further, the model and analysis can help inform MAP-21 related efforts to develop a National Freight Network and National Freight Strategic Plan

Predictive Archaeological Modeling using GIS-Based Fuzzy Set Estimation: A Case Study in Woodford County, Kentucky

Analytic predictive archaeological models can have great utility for state Departments of Transportation, but it is difficult to model the likelihood of prehistoric settlement using geographical proxy predictor variables because of the complexity of how settlement choices were actually made, and the complex interaction between these variables using GIS. In many cases classic statistical modeling approaches require too much data to be useful. This research reports on a preliminary predictive model that combines Spatial Analyst and fuzzy logic modeling to capture expert archaeological knowledge and convert this into predictive surface. A test area was defined in Woodford County, KY and five influencing factors were defined and calculated using ArcMap. Locations were sampled and probabilities estimated using both small and large group structured processes from a range of archeologists that fed an iterative fuzzy logic induction process. An output probability function was generated to create a predictive decision support layer

Integrated Freight Network Model: A GIS-Based Platform for Transportation Analyses

The models currently used to examine the behavior transportation systems are usually modespecific. That is, they focus on a single mode (i.e. railways, highways, or waterways). The lack of integration limits the usefulness of models to analyze the intermodal movement of freight. This project developed a GIS-based model of the three primary surface modes as well as intermodal connections. The resulting Integrated Freight Network Model (IFNM) accommodates highly detailed about shipping costs, transfer costs, traffic volumes (including non-freight auto traffic), and network interconnectivity properties. As a proof of concept, the research team conducted an exploratory analysis that asked what the potential impact would be to Kentucky highways if approximately half of the freight currently transported by barges on the Ohio River were shifted onto trucks. Coal-haul roads in the northeastern and western part of Kentucky would be particularly hard hit by a broad scale modal shift. The IFNM highlighted that roads emanating from the Western Coalfields would experience explosive growth in freight transport, with the proportion of trucks relative to overall traffic significantly increasing. Applying the IFNM to a range of freight-related transportation questions could greatly enhance system efficiencies and positively impact local economies and environments

GIS-Based Expert Systems Model for Predicting Habitat Suitability of Blackside Dace

This study presents a GIS-based predictive habitat suitability model for the blackside dace, a federally-listed threatened species of the Upper Cumberland River basin in southeastern Kentucky. The model is a rules-based system which incorporates expert knowledge about habitat preferences for the species. The five habitat factors identified by experts and included in this model are stream gradient, canopy coverage, riparian vegetation type, riparian zone width, and stream order. Using GIS, the five habitat parameters were parameterized and combined across the entire stream network. Combinations were evaluated by blackside dace experts in terms of habitat suitability. The resulting model was tested against known blackside dace occurrences using locational modeling statistics. This analysis demonstrates success at identifying stream areas of both high and low likelihood of occurrences. Model results could be of particular usefulness to transportation planners in identifying sensitive areas in the landscape that may impact transportation planning

Casewise Visual Evaluation for High-Performance Collaborative Visioning of PGDP Nuclear Enrichment Plant End State

Abstract This article describes the adaptation of the authors' Structured Public Involvement, or SPI, framework for community involvement in the end-state visioning process for the PGDP facility. The SPI framework is designed to elicit community values and provide access to these as a decision support system for the development of feasible, legitimate, and durable end-state management plans. This SPI protocol is designed around community evaluation of visualizations. Key properties of visual evaluation methods for large group visualization are discussed and the Casewise Visual Evaluation method is outlined. CAVE uses a fuzzy logic based neural network modeling approach to build a knowledge base for community preferences across all feasible end-state scenarios. The potential PDGP end-state land-use properties developed from focus group work are integrated into a sample range of dynamic visualizations and the sampling protocol is described. Preliminary results will be presented at the conference

GIS-Based Expert Systems Model for Predicting Habitat Suitability of Blackside Dace in Southeastern Kentucky

This study presents a GIS-based predictive habitat suitability model for the blackside dace, a federally-listed threatened species of the Upper Cumberland River basin in southeastern Kentucky. The model is a rules-based system which incorporates expert knowledge about habitat preferences for the species. The five habitat factors identified by experts and included in this model are stream gradient, canopy coverage, riparian vegetation type, riparian zone width, and stream order. Using GIS, the five habitat parameters were parameterized and combined across the entire stream network. Combinations were evaluated by blackside dace experts in terms of habitat suitability. The resulting model was tested against known blackside dace occurrences using locational modeling statistics. This analysis demonstrates success at identifying stream areas of both high and low likelihood of occurrences. Model results could be of particular usefulness to transportation planners in identifying sensitive areas in the landscape that may impact transportation planning

Evaluation of Noise Impact Mitigation Protocols to Support CSS

This research project developed and evaluated practical ways of involving the public in context sensitive sound mitigation strategies. The integrated use of photo montage, PowerPoint presentation, linked traffic sound files, and audience response systems demonstrated that significant visual and aural differences could be clearly portrayed and clear preferences could be expressed by citizens and professionals alike, even where the choice menu was quite complex