Computational Methods for Complex Stochastic Systems: A Review of Some Alternatives to MCMC.

We consider analysis of complex stochastic models based upon partial information. MCMC and reversible jump MCMC are often the methods of choice for such problems, but in some situations they can be difficult to implement; and suffer from problems such as poor mixing, and the difficulty of diagnosing convergence. Here we review three alternatives to MCMC methods: importance sampling, the forward-backward algorithm, and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We discuss how to design good proposal densities for importance sampling, show some of the range of models for which the forward-backward algorithm can be applied, and show how resampling ideas from SMC can be used to improve the efficiency of the other two methods. We demonstrate these methods on a range of examples, including estimating the transition density of a diffusion and of a discrete-state continuous-time Markov chain; inferring structure in population genetics; and segmenting genetic divergence data

RESEARCH, EVALUATION, AND POLICY ANALYSIS: HEURISTICS FOR DISCIPLINED INQUIRY

Terminology like "evaluation research" and "policy analysis research" poses a fundamental conflict in talking about what constitutes legitimate inquiry activities. Using the two-part definition of disciplined inquiry developed by Cronbach and Suppes (1969). it is possible to characterize research, evaluation and policy analysis as three separate and distinct forms of disciplined inquiry. As distinct forms, each has its own unique definition, purpose(s), products, intended outcomes or effects, and audiences. Further, under the definitions proposed, emergent inquiry paradigms have as much utility as older, conventional models. Copyright 1986 by The Policy Studies Organization.

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND ADMINISTRATIVE POWER THEORY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF STATE DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES*

The ability of state leaders to influence economic growth and diversity within their states is a disputed issue within the literature on state economic development policy-making. This research contributes to this debate by developing comparative measures of state development agency power drawn from the emerging theory on organizational power. If state policy leaders have independent control over the economic performance of their states and if that influence is exercised through the administrative unit responsible for that activity, states which have supplied their agencies more resources and freedom in using those resources should outperform those states which have not. Copyright 1988 by The Policy Studies Organization.

PLANNED INCAPACITY TO SUCCEED? POLICY-MAKING STRUCTURE AND POLICY FAILURE

Policies may fail in two analytically distinct ways: they may fail to achieve their goals, or they may fail to retain political support and be terminated. By failing to distinguish between ineffectiveness and political failure, the three most common interpretations of the War on Poverty and the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (failure owing to central government incompetence, failure owing to pluralism, and "hidden" success) cannot adequately account for the gap between their ambiguous performance and their clear political failure. To understand these differences, one must understand the effect of America's fragmented political structure on the design and implementation of poverty and unemployment remedies. Under resource constraints and given a large degree of policy discretion, American states in the aggregate have retained their historic resistance to social policies that would increase short-term expenditures and reduce the attractiveness of their business climate. These jurisdictions and their Congressional representatives opposed new fully nationalized initiatives, insisting on policy designs that promised fiscal relief while protecting state and local policy control. National policymakers found that grant-in-aid programs offered the path of least resistance in these circumstances. Although social policy grant programs could win initial approval in Congress, these designs proved to be increasingly unwieldy, expensive, and difficult to control in practice. The programs yielded ambiguous overall results but provided unambiguous examples of waste, fraud and abuse, fueling the perception of failure and contributing to the backlash against these programs and their political failure. Copyright 1988 by The Policy Studies Organization.