Determinants of Private Afforestation in the Republic of Ireland

This paper employs a panel regression analysis using county-level data to quantify the relative importance of competing forestry and agricultural policy incentives in explaining trends in private afforestation in Ireland. It concludes that an increase in the level of up front payments to planters is the most cost efficient way of increasing planting levels. The introduction of the Irish agri-environment programme REPS has contributed to a significant decline in the level of forestry planting and offset the recent increases in the level of forestry grants and premia. Several policy reforms to encourage forestry planting in Ireland are proposed, including greater integration of forestry with the REPS scheme and increasing the value of the initial payment which farmers receive.

Economic Impact on Irish Dairy Farms of Strategies To Reduce Nitrogen Applications

End of Project ReportEconomic research reported here analysed the likely impact on farm incomes of policies aimed at reducing nitrogen (N) applications on farms. Three types of policy were considered. First was a restriction of the intensity of livestock production to control amounts of organic nitrogenous material going on the land. That in the EU Nitrates Directive of 170 kg N per hectare was used (equivalent to 2 dairy cows per hectare). To this was added a restriction on the total amount of nitrogen applied of 260kg N/ha reflecting rules in the Rural Environment Protection Scheme (REPS). The third measure considered was a 10 percent tax on sales of manufactured nitrogenous fertilisers. These measures to address nitrate pollution are under discussion in Ireland as the concentration of nitrates in waters in some areas has increased significantly. Particular attention was paid to estimating the impact of the three constraints on specialist dairy farms, as they were most likely to have to restrict applications of N to comply. Many of these farms were in the five Munster counties selected for the study, namely Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Tipperary and Waterford. In these counties 39 percent of specialist dairy farms would have been affected both by Nitrates Directive restrictions on applications of nitrogen as organic material (animal wastes) and REPS rules on the total amount of nitrogenous material spread on farm land. A further 30 percent of these farms would be affected only by the restriction on total applications of N, as in the REPS rules. The remaining 31 percent of the specialist dairy farms would not have been affected by restrictions on N use under either the Nitrates Directive or REPS rules. The potential economic impact of policies to constrain nitrogen use was simulated for a sample of specialist dairy farms in Munster. All of these farms started with levels of N applications in excess of one or both of the restrictions being considered. This policy simulation was carried out using individual farm Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) models. The results showed that compliance with restrictions on N use would reduce income on all of the selected farms. The results also indicate that these farms could partly or wholly offset the loss by increasing the efficiency of N use, or by increasing milk production per cow. However, the more a farm was above the regulation 2 Livestock Units (dairy cows) per hectare the larger the potential loss of income and the more difficult it would be to make good this loss. Farms starting with fewer than 2 LU/ha but applying in total more than 260 kgN/ha (REPS rule) would find that meeting this target would cause a lesser reduction in income. This loss would also be easier to offset by efficiency increasing measures. With regard to the third scenario of imposing a 10% tax on sales of manufactured N fertilizers, the results showed this to be very ineffective in reducing the amounts used. In some cases the imposition of a tax would have no effect whatsoever on the amount of N used yet would slightly reduce incomes on all of the nation's farm

The net contribution of the Agri-Food Sector to the inflow of funds into Ireland: a new estimate

This new analysis of Ireland’s Balance of International Payments (BOP) shows a surprisingly large net contribution from the Biosector. In 2005 net foreign earnings of the sector, comprising agriculture, forestry, fisheries, food, drink and tobacco industries, amounted to 32 percent of the total net earnings from primary and manufacturing industries. This is double the sector’s 16 percent contribution to exports in that year. Reasons for the sector’s disproportionately large net contribution to earnings from exports include: 1. Import requirements per euro of Biosector exports were lower than in the Non-Biosector, import requirements for every euro of output averaged 38 cent in the Biosector but 58 cent per euro of output in the Non-Biosector. 2. Foreign ownership, and thus profit repatriation outflow, was lower than in other sectors. This was despite strong growth in the activities of foreign based enterprises in some of the food and beverage industries. Profit repatriation by these enterprises in the Biosector was only 9 cent per euro of exports in 2000 while it was then 21 cent on average in the Non-Biosector. However, since 2000 the activities of foreign owned businesses in the Biosector have grown and their profit repatriation in 2005 accounted for 15 cent per euro of exports from this sector. On the other hand this growth propelled a 46 percent increase in exports from the sector between 2000 and 2005, though this is not visible in the Trade Statistics, possibly due to data confidentiality concerns. Profit repatriation by businesses in the Non-Biosector peaked at 26 cent per euro of exports in 2002, but by 2005 it was back again to 20 cent. 3. Receipts of EU payments were almost entirely in support of agriculture and its exports. This is especially a feature of the Biosector, unlike the Non-Biosector where they are negligible. EU payments grew at the same rate as exports from the Biosector in the years from 2000 to 2005 and continued to provide an important addition to BOP inflows. Importation of capital goods was also analysed in the context of the BOP. Results showed that industries in the Biosector made almost as much use of imported capital goods as those in the Non-Biosector. Thus adjustment of net in-flow estimates for out-goings on the purchase of capital goods from abroad only raised the net contribution of the Biosector from 30 percent to 32 percent of the total, according to calculations for 2005. Corresponding figures for the year 2000 were higher at 38 percent and 39 percent respectively. In every one of the intervening years the Biosector’s net contribution was found to be close to 30 percent. Support for the overall conclusion that the Biosector contributed close to 30 percent of the net flow of funds into the economy generated by the primary and manufacturing industries is provided by the detailed analysis described in the Report. What is more, were the earnings of Irish companies operating abroad to be included, the result could have shown an even larger contribution from the Biosector, due to the overseas achievements of Irish food firms. Results for 2007 could also show a higher proportionate contribution from the Biosector, reflecting large increases in prices for food product exports between 2005 and 2007

Econometric modelling of the EU agri-food sector through co-operation with partners in the EU-AG-MEMOD Project

End of Project ReportThe research of the AG-MEMOD Partnership was supported by public funds from the European Commission, through the Fifth Framework Programme (QLRT-2000-00473).This research project set out to build an EU agricultural policy modelling system involving participants from right across the enlarged EU. Policy Analysis is conducted at an aggregate commodity level for the main sectors of EU agriculture. The work summarised here took place over the period 2001 to 2004. The implementation of the Luxembourg Agreement and the Enlargement of the EU will lead to significant changes to the way in which agriculture operates in the EU25. Under the reform, direct payments that have been linked to production are to be decoupled to varying degrees across the Union. Enlargement will mean that agriculture in several New Member States (NMS) will come under the EU system of payments, supply constraints and market price supports for the first time. In light of the above, the most common current approach to agriculture commodity modelling and policy analysis - that which treats the entire EU as a single entity - faces a considerable challenge. Given the heterogeneity of EU agriculture and agricultural policy across the enlarged EU, it is increasingly the case that ‘the devil is in the detail’. From a scientific perspective, country level policy analysis is important in order to capture the consequences of this heterogeneity. Moreover, at a political level, policy makers realise that policy proposals either sink or swim on the basis of the perception of their expected future impact at a national level. Hence, it is important to be able to inform and facilitate a debate on the relative merits of particular reform proposals by having national (or even sub-national) level analysis to hand. The case for national level modelling across the EU is easily made, but few practitioners have taken up the challenge it presents.i Key problems include funding constraints, the absence of reliable national data sources, difficulties in agreeing and co-ordinating a consistent modelling approach and, perhaps most importantly, the absence of an integrated network of economists with knowledge of local level agriculture and agricultural policy across the enlarged EU.European Unio

Estimation of the Contribution of the Biosector to Ireland’s Net Foreign Earnings: Methodology and Results

An estimate of the contribution of the biosector to Ireland’s net foreign earnings in 2008 was recently published by The Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (2012). This paper examines these results and their derivation from a wide range of data provided by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), particularly the Census of Industrial Production and the Supply and Use and Input-Output Tables for Ireland. The 'biosector' comprises the agriculture, forestry and fishing industries, along with the industries processing their products - the food and beverage industries. The main finding was that in 2008 the biosector accounted for 40 percent of net foreign earnings from merchandise exports. This was more than double the sector's percentage share of exports. The main reasons for the sector’s disproportionately large contribution to net foreign earnings were: lower import requirements per euro of exports, and higher receipts of EU payments. These results are analysed in terms of Balance of International Payments flows per €100 of merchandise exports. Put this way, in 2008 every €100 of exports from the biosector generated €52 in net foreign earnings. In contrast, exports from the non-biosector, contributed only €19 in net foreign earnings for every €100 of exports. The result is shown to be quite dependable in the light of its consistency with other statistics for the economy and with results for earlier years. For example, when previous results for 2005 were updated with revised data and reclassifications, the results were very similar to those for 2008. More generally, these results illustrate an approach to assessment of the value to the economy of exports from specific sectors. In particular, the contribution of one sector or industry relative to another, in terms of net inflows per €100 of exports, could be a valuable way to assess the case for the expansion of one export sector, or industry, relative to another. In this case the biosector’s contribution per €100 of exports in 2008 was provisionally estimated to be at least 2.7 times that of the non-biosector, and very likely to be far higher for Irish owner enterprises in the biosector sector

The net contribution of the Agri-Food Sector to the inflow of funds into Ireland: a new estimate

This new analysis of Ireland’s Balance of International Payments (BOP) shows a surprisingly large net contribution from the Biosector. In 2005 net foreign earnings of the sector, comprising agriculture, forestry, fisheries, food, drink and tobacco industries, amounted to 32 percent of the total net earnings from primary and manufacturing industries. This is double the sector’s 16 percent contribution to exports in that year. Reasons for the sector’s disproportionately large net contribution to earnings from exports include: 1. Import requirements per euro of Biosector exports were lower than in the Non-Biosector, import requirements for every euro of output averaged 38 cent in the Biosector but 58 cent per euro of output in the Non-Biosector. 2. Foreign ownership, and thus profit repatriation outflow, was lower than in other sectors. This was despite strong growth in the activities of foreign based enterprises in some of the food and beverage industries. Profit repatriation by these enterprises in the Biosector was only 9 cent per euro of exports in 2000 while it was then 21 cent on average in the Non-Biosector. However, since 2000 the activities of foreign owned businesses in the Biosector have grown and their profit repatriation in 2005 accounted for 15 cent per euro of exports from this sector. On the other hand this growth propelled a 46 percent increase in exports from the sector between 2000 and 2005, though this is not visible in the Trade Statistics, possibly due to data confidentiality concerns. Profit repatriation by businesses in the Non-Biosector peaked at 26 cent per euro of exports in 2002, but by 2005 it was back again to 20 cent. 3. Receipts of EU payments were almost entirely in support of agriculture and its exports. This is especially a feature of the Biosector, unlike the Non-Biosector where they are negligible. EU payments grew at the same rate as exports from the Biosector in the years from 2000 to 2005 and continued to provide an important addition to BOP inflows. Importation of capital goods was also analysed in the context of the BOP. Results showed that industries in the Biosector made almost as much use of imported capital goods as those in the Non-Biosector. Thus adjustment of net in-flow estimates for out-goings on the purchase of capital goods from abroad only raised the net contribution of the Biosector from 30 percent to 32 percent of the total, according to calculations for 2005. Corresponding figures for the year 2000 were higher at 38 percent and 39 percent respectively. In every one of the intervening years the Biosector’s net contribution was found to be close to 30 percent. Support for the overall conclusion that the Biosector contributed close to 30 percent of the net flow of funds into the economy generated by the primary and manufacturing industries is provided by the detailed analysis described in the Report. What is more, were the earnings of Irish companies operating abroad to be included, the result could have shown an even larger contribution from the Biosector, due to the overseas achievements of Irish food firms. Results for 2007 could also show a higher proportionate contribution from the Biosector, reflecting large increases in prices for food product exports between 2005 and 2007

Estimation of the Contribution of the Biosector to Ireland’s Net Foreign Earnings: Methodology and Results

An estimate of the contribution of the biosector to Ireland’s net foreign earnings in 2008 was recently published by The Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (2012). This paper examines these results and their derivation from a wide range of data provided by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), particularly the Census of Industrial Production and the Supply and Use and Input-Output Tables for Ireland. The 'biosector' comprises the agriculture, forestry and fishing industries, along with the industries processing their products - the food and beverage industries. The main finding was that in 2008 the biosector accounted for 40 percent of net foreign earnings from merchandise exports. This was more than double the sector's percentage share of exports. The main reasons for the sector’s disproportionately large contribution to net foreign earnings were: lower import requirements per euro of exports, and higher receipts of EU payments. These results are analysed in terms of Balance of International Payments flows per €100 of merchandise exports. Put this way, in 2008 every €100 of exports from the biosector generated €52 in net foreign earnings. In contrast, exports from the non-biosector, contributed only €19 in net foreign earnings for every €100 of exports. The result is shown to be quite dependable in the light of its consistency with other statistics for the economy and with results for earlier years. For example, when previous results for 2005 were updated with revised data and reclassifications, the results were very similar to those for 2008. More generally, these results illustrate an approach to assessment of the value to the economy of exports from specific sectors. In particular, the contribution of one sector or industry relative to another, in terms of net inflows per €100 of exports, could be a valuable way to assess the case for the expansion of one export sector, or industry, relative to another. In this case the biosector’s contribution per €100 of exports in 2008 was provisionally estimated to be at least 2.7 times that of the non-biosector, and very likely to be far higher for Irish owner enterprises in the biosector sector

The induction and identification of novel Colistin resistance mutations in Acinetobacter baumannii and their implications.

Acinetobacter baumannii is a significant cause of opportunistic hospital acquired infection and has been identified as an important emerging infection due to its high levels of antimicrobial resistance. Multidrug resistant A. baumannii has risen rapidly in Vietnam, where colistin is becoming the drug of last resort for many infections. In this study we generated spontaneous colistin resistant progeny (up to >256 μg/μl) from four colistin susceptible Vietnamese isolates and one susceptible reference strain (MIC <1.5 μg/μl). Whole genome sequencing was used to identify single nucleotide mutations that could be attributed to the reduced colistin susceptibility. We identified six lpxACD and three pmrB mutations, the majority of which were novel. In addition, we identified further mutations in six A. baumannii genes (vacJ, pldA, ttg2C, pheS and conserved hypothetical protein) that we hypothesise have a role in reduced colistin susceptibility. This study has identified additional mutations that may be associated with colistin resistance through novel resistance mechanisms. Our work further demonstrates how rapidly A. baumannii can generate resistance to a last resort antimicrobial and highlights the need for improved surveillance to identified A. baumannii with an extensive drug resistance profile

Using Personal Digital Assistants to support students

Report of a CELT project on supporting students through innovation and researchAs participation in higher education increases, large numbers of people from non-traditional backgrounds are entering universities such as Wolverhampton. These students are expected to need more support in becoming familiar with the novelty and complexity of studying new subjects as undergraduates in a large university. They are consequently expected to be the students at most risk of failure to progress beyond the first year of their course and hence failing to realise their potential. Universities have attempted to increase the accessibility of higher education by an increased variety of modes and timetables. Whilst this facilitates wider take up, it also increases the logistical complexity of the world that new students enter. This project explores the use of handheld computers (personal digital assistants, PDAs) in addressing some aspects of this problem and also to begin to explore the cost-effectiveness of institutional support for providing these devices