Uncertainty of ship hull girder ultimate strength in global bending predicted by Smith-type collapse analysis

The engineering modelling of ship hull girder strength consists of global and local levels. The Smith-type progressive collapse analysis is a typical example of this, in which the global model requires input from the local model to describe the underlying local structural behaviour, i.e., load-shortening curve (LSC). However, the modelling is prone to uncertainty due to the statistical variability of the basic variables (aleatoric uncertainty) and the inadequacy of engineering models in both global and local levels (epistemic uncertainty). The former can be well tackled by a probabilistic sampling, whereas dealing with the latter for ship hull girder strength lacks an established approach. There can be different sources of epistemic uncertainty. In the modelling of ship hull girder strength, this may be partially manifested as that caused by different choices of local engineering models for predicting the LSC. In light of this, a novel probabilistic method is applied in this research to quantify the uncertainty related to the local models, i.e., the combined computational uncertainty of ultimate compressive strength and post-collapse strength of structural elements. The adopted approach is a hybrid method incorporating the Smith-type progressive collapse method with Monte-Carlo Simulation and an adaptable LSC algorithm. Case studies are performed for the first time on four merchant ships under both uni-axial and bi-axial bending load cases. It is shown that the ultimate strength in sagging is subjected to the most significant computational uncertainty as compared with those in hogging and horizontal bending. In a bi-axial load case, the computational uncertainty estimated for vertical bending will be counteracted as the horizontal bending increases. Nevertheless, this change is not directly proportional to the bi-axial load component ratio and appreciably varies between different ship types. The insights and data provided by this study may eventually resolve the epistemic uncertainty in ship hull girder strength estimation so that improving the ultimate limit state-based reliability analysis

Assessment of VIV fatigue of subsea template jumper by using a time domain model

This paper addresses the application of a time domain model for Vortex-Induced Vibration (VIV) to assess the fatigue damage of subsea jumpers. The time domain model, capable of accounting for structural non-linearity and time-varying flow, was applied on a typical ’M’-shaped jumper model. Obtained results were compared against VIV motion data from experiments in the literature. Fatigue estimates were also compared to the DNVGL response model approach. Two models were investigated, with and without elbow elements in the bends. The reduced stiffness of the model including elbow elements improved the results of modal analysis and caused a shift in the mode shape order. VIV motion results were in good correlation with model test data. With several exceptions, the fatigue damage calculated using the DNVGL response model procedure was higher than obtained from the time domain model, as no mode competition is applied on non-straight pipes. For several load cases torsion stress was the largest stress component

Shakedown limits in three-dimensional wheel-rail rolling-sliding contacts

Abstract not available

UNCERTAINTY OF SHIP HULL GIRDER ULTIMATE STRENGTH IN GLOBAL BENDING PREDICTED BY SMITH-TYPE COLLAPSE ANALYSIS

The engineering modelling of ship hull girder strength consists of global and local levels. The Smith-type progressive collapse analysis is a typical example of this, in which the global model requires input from the local model to describe the underlying local structural behaviour, i.e., load-shortening curve (LSC). However, the modelling is prone to uncertainty due to the statistical variability of the basic variables (aleatoric uncertainty) and the inadequacy of engineering models in both global and local levels (epistemic uncertainty). The former can be well tackled by a probabilistic sampling, whereas dealing with the latter for ship hull girder strength lacks an established approach. There can be different sources of epistemic uncertainty. In the modelling of ship hull girder strength, this may be partially manifested as that caused by different choices of local engineering models for predicting the LSC. In light of this, a novel probabilistic method is applied in this research to quantify the uncertainty related to the local models, i.e., the combined computational uncertainty of ultimate compressive strength and post-collapse strength of structural elements. The adopted approach is a hybrid method incorporating the Smith-type progressive collapse method with Monte-Carlo Simulation and an adaptable LSC algorithm. Case studies are performed for the first time on four merchant ships under both uni-axial and bi-axial bending load cases. It is shown that the ultimate strength in sagging is subjected to the most significant computational uncertainty as compared with those in hogging and horizontal bending. In a bi-axial load case, the computational uncertainty estimated for vertical bending will be counteracted as the horizontal bending increases. Nevertheless, this change is not directly proportional to the bi-axial load component ratio and appreciably varies between different ship types. The insights and data provided by this study may eventually resolve the epistemic uncertainty in ship hull girder strength estimation so that improving the ultimate limit state-based reliability analysis.Y

Prediction of fatigue crack initiation for rolling contact fatigue

In finite element (FE) simulations of a twin disc test of a wheel/rail contact, fatigue crack initiation criteria for elastic shakedown, plastic shakedown and ratchetting material responses were evaluated for a pearlitic rail steel BS11 normal grade. The Chaboche material model for nonlinear isotropic and kinematic hardening was used in the FE simulations. The ratchetting material response results were compared with a constitutive ratchetting model, and there was good agreement with respect to the number of cycles to crack initiation and shear strain distribution below the contact surface. In addition, angles for critical planes for crack initiation were calculated for both plastic shakedown and ratchetting material responses. Results from simulations with the ratchetting model at constant contact pressures and varying friction coefficient showed asymptotic values of the friction coefficient at which crack initiation due to ratchetting will not occur