PREDICTING HIT BALL OUTCOMES IN DIVISION I COLLEGIATE BASEBALL PLAYERS

BACKGROUND: Modern-day technology continues to challenge long-held beliefs on the performance aspects of baseball. METHODS: Three classes of independent variables (anthropometric, in-game situation, technique-based) were collected from 1,922 batting outcomes and 230 players to predict the likelihood of a batting outcome producing a hit from Atlantic Coast Conference baseball games during the 2021 season. Anthropometric measurements entailed player’s heights and weights. In-game situation included batter side, same side, ahead count, and pitch type. Technique-based variables measured by radar (TrackMan; Scottsdale AZ) included exit speed (ExSp), launch angle (LA), batted ball distance (BBD), and hang time (HT). Batting outcomes, with 0 = no hit and 1 = hit, was the dependent variable. A binary logistic regression analysis was conducted with an α = 0.05 to denote statistical significance. RESULTS: Independent variables provided a good fit (χ² (10) = 522.358, p \u3c 0.01) and correctly predicted almost three-fourths of batting outcomes. Height (Wald = 4.176, p \u3c 0.05), ExSp (Wald = 4.675, p \u3c 0.05), LA (Wald = 25.053, p \u3c 0.01), and BBD (Wald = 193.597, p \u3c 0.01) had significant positive associations with batting outcome. HT (Wald = 218.399, p \u3c 0.01) had a significant negative association with batting outcome. CONCLUSIONS: TrackMan provided four significant independent variables. Anthropometry’s contribution to batting performance is modest, while in-game situation’s influence was non-significant. Results contradict long-held beliefs of their importance that began with the sport’s inception